Early-Ranch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.9%

Resolved

Trades

125

lifetime

Volume

$880

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-09

last 05-17 19:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 63% $-11

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 72 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	4	$44	27	27	+0	open	—	05-16 11:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	3	$39	36	36	+0	open	—	05-16 10:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	3	$30	35	18	+17	open	—	05-16 10:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	4	$28	24	14	+10	open	—	05-16 10:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	5	$25	16	16	+0	open	—	05-16 11:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	1	$25	51	0	+51	Up	$-25	05-09 18:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	1	$25	71	0	+71	Up	$-25	05-09 16:42
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	1	$25	85	0	+85	Down	$-25	05-09 18:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	1	$25	71	0	+71	Up	$-25	05-09 18:16
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	1	$25	30	0	+30	Up	+$5	05-09 18:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	4	$23	34	23	+11	open	—	05-16 09:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	2	$22	21	21	+0	open	—	05-16 13:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	2	$20	31	0	+31	open	—	05-16 10:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	1	$18	30	0	+30	open	—	05-16 12:00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	2	$15	15	15	+0	Down	+$5	05-09 17:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	2	$15	28	0	+28	open	—	05-16 10:45
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	3	$15	31	0	+31	Up	+$16	05-09 17:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	2	$15	21	0	+21	open	—	05-16 11:56
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	3	$15	22	0	+22	Down	+$7	05-09 17:51
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	3	$15	18	0	+18	Down	+$3	05-09 18:11
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	3	$15	19	0	+19	Up	+$4	05-09 18:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	2	$15	18	0	+18	open	—	05-16 11:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	2	$14	23	0	+23	open	—	05-16 10:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	2	$13	10	10	+0	Down	+$3	05-09 16:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	3	$12	17	10	+7	open	—	05-16 09:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	05-16 11:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	2	$11	26	26	+0	open	—	05-16 11:23
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?	3	$10	495	161	+333	open	—	05-16 13:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	05-16 10:06
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	2	$10	31	0	+31	Down	+$21	05-09 17:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-17 19:20:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0xa7c859…
05-17 19:18:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	SELL	6	70¢	$4	0x8d6eb2…
05-17 19:15:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x19fda0…
05-17 19:15:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x421ca6…
05-17 19:15:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xace87e…
05-17 19:10:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x1b69f0…
05-17 19:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x160328…
05-17 19:03:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xaf28f4…
05-16 13:28:26	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?	Up	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x493415…
05-16 13:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	21	55¢	$12	0x00b735…
05-16 13:15:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xb4dfeb…
05-16 13:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	70¢	$9	0xeedd3a…
05-16 12:46:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xe9b83e…
05-16 12:38:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa76728…
05-16 12:15:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xf51bbc…
05-16 12:05:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x12e135…
05-16 12:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x79216d…
05-16 11:56:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xef5e04…
05-16 11:55:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xdaa5a6…
05-16 11:51:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xfd988e…
05-16 11:51:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x17bad7…
05-16 11:50:54	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?	Up	SELL	161	3¢	$4	0x18e968…
05-16 11:45:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x8ccf9e…
05-16 11:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x6267be…
05-16 11:42:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET	Up	SELL	7	96¢	$6	0x00fae9…
05-16 11:29:45	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?	Up	BUY	161	3¢	$5	0x5c3045…
05-16 11:25:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xc6a32a…
05-16 11:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	SELL	26	5¢	$1	0x76894f…
05-16 11:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x9400da…
05-16 11:19:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xa448a4…
05-16 11:17:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x0b5af5…
05-16 11:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	15	84¢	$13	0xed51df…
05-16 11:16:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xc1a974…
05-16 11:10:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xca8957…
05-16 11:09:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	16	89¢	$14	0x2d1d94…
05-16 11:06:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x259d46…
05-16 11:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x4fb2c5…
05-16 11:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x4503bc…
05-16 11:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	69¢	$2	0x291c75…
05-16 11:00:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xacef38…
05-16 11:00:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe3f3a0…
05-16 10:55:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x1bb65d…
05-16 10:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xac3069…
05-16 10:45:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x346ce0…
05-16 10:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x7c15b5…
05-16 10:44:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	36	52¢	$19	0x40890f…
05-16 10:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xd09d21…
05-16 10:41:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x784f6d…
05-16 10:35:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x3c08c3…
05-16 10:35:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xa39c90…
05-16 10:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x50cf54…
05-16 10:27:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xff682a…
05-16 10:27:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	18	55¢	$10	0xeff31d…
05-16 10:26:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x8bace0…
05-16 10:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	14	62¢	$9	0x1f0dca…
05-16 10:20:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xb7b56a…
05-16 10:16:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x1c41bd…
05-16 10:10:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x3c7b99…
05-16 10:06:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x69ca06…
05-16 10:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9b453f…
05-16 10:03:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x02af39…
05-16 10:02:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0x3a2ccc…
05-16 10:01:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x33a2eb…
05-16 09:56:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x55ac2a…
05-16 09:53:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xf904c0…
05-16 09:47:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xcb0378…
05-16 09:47:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x41d99a…
05-16 09:46:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	23	15¢	$3	0x3593e6…
05-16 09:45:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x30506b…
05-16 09:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x7b8192…
05-16 09:36:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x87558d…
05-16 09:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x180f4d…
05-16 09:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xbeffea…
05-16 09:32:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x513c5d…
05-16 09:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x9b7ac9…
05-16 09:22:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x96590d…
05-16 09:17:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xc7562d…
05-16 09:16:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xa99bc7…
05-16 09:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x7c8036…
05-16 09:00:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x73f402…
05-10 07:37:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x196b9c…
05-10 07:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xbb23e0…
05-10 07:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x36ae87…
05-10 07:15:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x5bc904…
05-09 18:30:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	85	30¢	$25	0xbe0b39…
05-09 18:25:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x57f4ca…
05-09 18:20:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x4d4700…
05-09 18:16:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x843e2c…
05-09 18:11:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xffcf44…
05-09 18:11:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xbb5343…
05-09 18:11:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x236bec…
05-09 18:01:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xa88f60…
05-09 18:00:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x746069…
05-09 18:00:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xcb5970…
05-09 17:56:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd43e68…
05-09 17:56:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x337263…
05-09 17:56:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xe5d567…
05-09 17:51:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xbc2538…
05-09 17:51:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x982ce8…
05-09 17:51:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x22c1be…