Criminal-Arrow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$69

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,105

lifetime

Volume

$170.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$154

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 08:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

61% — —

Other

39% 86% +$88

Crypto

1% 20% $-19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x venezuela military engagement by january 15 2026 392	42	$33.9K	24,983	17,392	+7,590	open	—	01-03 10:07
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	139	$33.4K	19,751	19,276	+476	open	—	02-01 02:18
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	110	$19.9K	11,688	10,669	+1,019	open	—	02-10 21:07
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	189	$18.0K	10,360	10,869	-508	open	—	02-22 14:13
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	1	$12.0K	0	12,062	-12,062	open	—	01-01 05:04
us x venezuela military engagement by january 31 2026 977	10	$10.2K	12,464	0	+12,464	open	—	01-02 01:21
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	14	$6.8K	5,421	3,136	+2,285	open	—	02-27 12:02
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	192	$6.3K	7,640	7,998	-358	open	—	01-08 20:12
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	16	$5.7K	7,381	4,170	+3,211	open	—	02-27 11:53
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	9	$3.1K	3,616	2,616	+1,000	open	—	02-01 19:12
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	14	$1.8K	1,090	1,090	+0	open	—	01-05 03:16
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$1.7K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	02-01 17:01
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	7	$1.4K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	02-01 12:49
israel strikes iran by january 23 2026	2	$1.4K	689	689	+0	open	—	01-24 10:59
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	1	$695	711	0	+711	open	—	02-07 11:33
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	4	$630	391	391	+0	open	—	04-28 23:55
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 29?	7	$627	485	485	+0	open	—	04-29 01:48
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	5	$584	376	376	+0	open	—	02-10 20:11
spy up or down on july 14 2026	5	$504	636	0	+636	open	—	07-14 12:37
spy up or down on june 23 2026	20	$504	1,879	1,879	+0	open	—	06-23 16:19
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	11	$496	436	120	+316	Up	+$29	05-08 12:32
spx up or down on july 15 2026	8	$476	315	315	+0	open	—	07-15 17:54
spx up or down on june 8 2026	11	$455	655	314	+341	open	—	06-08 00:31
spy up or down on june 25 2026	4	$409	488	0	+488	open	—	06-25 12:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	3	$400	213	213	+0	Up	+$1	05-06 10:14
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21?	14	$363	468	336	+132	open	—	05-21 17:47
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	5	$331	341	0	+341	open	—	04-29 14:39
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	2	$321	289	289	+0	open	—	04-12 10:26
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	8	$302	1,115	0	+1,115	open	—	05-19 13:42
spy up or down on june 26 2026	6	$296	250	250	+0	open	—	06-26 15:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 22:19:48	spx up or down on july 22 2026	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xf9a4d8…
07-21 08:37:33	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	30	81¢	$24	0xb0133b…
07-20 17:52:10	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x02dbda…
07-19 23:46:33	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xb54851…
07-16 16:53:55	spy up or down on july 16 2026	Up	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x793331…
07-16 16:31:11	spy up or down on july 16 2026	Up	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x373b61…
07-16 12:27:17	spy up or down on july 16 2026	Up	BUY	52	23¢	$12	0xe10ef0…
07-16 11:11:04	spy up or down on july 16 2026	Up	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0xb2e101…
07-16 11:00:56	spy up or down on july 16 2026	Up	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0xf39946…
07-16 11:00:56	spy up or down on july 16 2026	Up	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xc3578a…
07-16 11:00:55	spy up or down on july 16 2026	Up	BUY	23	39¢	$9	0xa5d799…
07-15 17:54:59	spx up or down on july 15 2026	Up	SELL	118	94¢	$111	0x5b1e08…
07-15 17:54:13	spx up or down on july 15 2026	Up	SELL	39	94¢	$37	0x2123fc…
07-15 17:53:34	spx up or down on july 15 2026	Up	SELL	158	94¢	$148	0xe2702d…
07-15 17:15:20	spx up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x5f9b32…
07-15 16:46:59	spx up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xc3784f…
07-15 16:30:16	spx up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0xd2ff5b…
07-15 16:29:04	spx up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x8bb477…
07-15 13:57:07	spx up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0xd45358…
07-14 12:37:40	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	172	78¢	$134	0x3620e9…
07-14 12:37:07	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x195f2d…
07-14 12:36:01	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0xa7054f…
07-14 12:33:10	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	174	86¢	$150	0x9683c8…
07-14 00:00:23	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0xf20fac…
07-13 02:09:41	spx up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	16	27¢	$4	0x7eb04d…
07-12 22:53:14	spx up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x96eaac…
07-10 16:15:11	spx up or down on july 10 2026	Up	SELL	80	82¢	$66	0x17a8d2…
07-10 00:53:43	spx up or down on july 10 2026	Up	BUY	40	39¢	$16	0x92b415…
07-10 00:07:17	spx up or down on july 10 2026	Up	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0xf9a689…
07-09 15:39:35	spx up or down on july 9 2026	Up	SELL	149	94¢	$140	0x8be0ba…
07-09 15:33:05	spx up or down on july 9 2026	Up	SELL	11	93¢	$11	0x7dccdb…
07-09 01:15:41	spx up or down on july 9 2026	Up	BUY	160	62¢	$100	0xe1c668…
07-09 01:14:44	spx opens up or down on july 9 2026	Up	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x1dad3f…
07-08 02:43:40	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xe45695…
07-08 00:18:07	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xc6d6d7…
07-07 16:44:38	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x5c1836…
07-07 14:28:37	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xc83f57…
07-07 14:21:11	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xefb9c6…
07-07 13:58:56	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0x205b55…
07-07 13:41:50	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0xa5aeb7…
07-07 13:37:41	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	119	42¢	$50	0xc19656…
07-07 02:50:17	spx opens up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	35	38¢	$13	0xb626dd…
07-07 02:46:02	spx opens up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	32	38¢	$12	0x4854d5…
07-06 23:52:40	spx opens up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x82f627…
07-06 23:49:53	spx opens up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xc729ae…
07-06 16:53:59	spx up or down on july 6 2026	Up	SELL	61	98¢	$60	0x5f46ed…
07-06 13:47:25	spx up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0xd0eca0…
07-02 20:16:53	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Up	SELL	150	53¢	$79	0xf8d268…
07-02 16:41:52	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xd2a96b…
07-02 16:06:07	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	23	39¢	$9	0x3f8fd6…
07-02 15:57:17	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x190b16…
07-02 15:16:01	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x4596df…
07-02 15:15:43	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x73da23…
07-02 15:12:28	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xfff380…
07-02 13:45:19	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Up	SELL	38	87¢	$33	0x2f27d7…
07-02 00:26:11	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 spread home 1pt5	United States	SELL	21	39¢	$8	0x242651…
07-01 22:27:58	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x568256…
07-01 19:56:08	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 spread home 1pt5	United States	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xc72ff3…
07-01 14:24:13	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Up	SELL	81	47¢	$38	0xcf03f0…
07-01 14:20:47	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Up	SELL	81	47¢	$38	0x2c29d6…
07-01 14:19:44	spy up or down on july 1 2026	Up	SELL	27	46¢	$12	0x61389c…
07-01 02:02:31	spy up or down on july 1 2026	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x023279…
07-01 01:59:11	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Up	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xc6ae86…
07-01 01:57:38	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Up	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xe04e37…
07-01 00:03:35	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x9899dd…
06-30 22:43:25	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x61dea0…
06-30 15:34:53	spx up or down on june 30 2026	Up	SELL	39	94¢	$37	0xe1305d…
06-30 00:09:22	spx up or down on june 30 2026	Up	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x20c7c0…
06-29 14:58:38	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Up	SELL	60	87¢	$52	0x617fb2…
06-29 14:57:35	spx up or down on june 29 2026	Up	SELL	72	88¢	$64	0x32bf91…
06-29 14:48:05	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Up	SELL	60	80¢	$48	0x9bd2c5…
06-29 14:24:25	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Up	BUY	61	66¢	$40	0x6e8d21…
06-29 14:24:02	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Up	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0x290d55…
06-29 11:31:13	spx up or down on june 29 2026	Up	BUY	72	83¢	$60	0xd20766…
06-26 15:42:32	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	SELL	250	80¢	$200	0x11decc…
06-26 09:52:19	spx opens up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x488c00…
06-26 09:35:40	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x43996f…
06-26 09:35:02	spx opens up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x0f6b3c…
06-26 09:31:01	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0x3d664d…
06-26 09:30:05	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x96c2dc…
06-26 01:52:05	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	45	47¢	$21	0x88105c…
06-26 01:10:28	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x2742f8…
06-25 12:38:44	spy up or down on june 25 2026	Up	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0xc2b816…
06-25 12:38:44	spy up or down on june 25 2026	Up	BUY	48	90¢	$43	0x9c0a0a…
06-25 12:38:44	spy up or down on june 25 2026	Up	BUY	215	90¢	$194	0x95bfe7…
06-25 02:58:37	spy up or down on june 25 2026	Up	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x7380c3…
06-24 14:40:34	spy up or down on june 24 2026	Up	BUY	90	78¢	$70	0x214cdb…
06-24 12:55:37	spx opens up or down on june 24 2026	Up	BUY	34	93¢	$32	0xa20bab…
06-24 12:52:34	spx opens up or down on june 24 2026	Up	BUY	66	93¢	$61	0x963775…
06-23 16:19:43	spy up or down on june 23 2026	Up	SELL	806	3¢	$24	0x0e2184…
06-23 14:29:14	spy up or down on june 23 2026	Up	SELL	806	8¢	$64	0xfbcfd8…
06-23 11:15:29	spy up or down on june 23 2026	Up	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xac04dd…
06-23 11:10:56	spy up or down on june 23 2026	Up	BUY	112	8¢	$9	0x55c49d…
06-23 11:08:02	spy up or down on june 23 2026	Up	BUY	88	8¢	$7	0xd1c44f…
06-23 11:00:59	spy up or down on june 23 2026	Up	BUY	88	8¢	$7	0x3388c1…
06-23 10:55:32	spy up or down on june 23 2026	Up	BUY	86	7¢	$6	0xcf0f99…
06-23 10:54:16	spy up or down on june 23 2026	Up	BUY	114	7¢	$8	0x892221…
06-23 10:31:14	spy up or down on june 23 2026	Up	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x943a2d…
06-23 10:30:55	spy up or down on june 23 2026	Up	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0x3c36ad…
06-23 10:27:32	spy up or down on june 23 2026	Up	BUY	400	8¢	$32	0xf6af00…