Substantial-Holder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$510

Unrealized P&L

+$134

Hit rate

83.6%

Resolved

103

Trades

221

lifetime

Volume

$15.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$71

Open exposure

$19

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 05-27 19:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Politics

53% 78% +$1,228

Crypto

35% 67% -$723

Other

12% 70% +$6

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-27).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		-414	-$153	4¢	$-19	+$134	05-05 16:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	6	$992	550	550	+0	No	+$76	03-04 08:08
will us or israel strike iran on march 1 2026	3	$663	705	0	+705	Yes	+$42	03-01 00:29
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	5	$646	351	351	+0	No	+$35	05-25 22:45
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	4	$632	339	339	+0	No	+$34	01-27 13:52
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	4	$442	250	250	+0	No	+$28	01-30 14:56
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	6	$429	457	0	+457	Yes	+$29	04-05 05:49
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?	2	$404	219	219	+0	Yes	+$4	04-03 13:53
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	4	$403	994	97	+897	Yes	+$597	02-08 06:58
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	8	$387	402	402	+0	Yes	+$8	03-14 18:19
will israel strike greater beirut on march 5 2026	6	$338	180	180	+0	Yes	+$21	03-05 06:11
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	3	$334	200	200	+0	Yes	+$58	04-21 19:58
will powell say good afternoon during january press conference 696 565	3	$331	787	160	+627	Yes	-$20	01-28 17:25
israel strikes iran by january 23 2026	4	$328	338	0	+338	No	+$10	01-23 05:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 06:30 UTC	2	$284	300	0	+300	Up	+$16	02-15 06:34
nothing ever happens israel edition	2	$267	320	320	+0	No	+$60	02-08 06:56
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	3	$254	333	143	+190	Yes	+$150	02-08 07:17
will the bank of israel decrease the bank of israel interest rate after the march decision	3	$249	287	0	+287	No	+$39	03-14 20:56
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	4	$249	227	227	+0	$80k	-$57	03-04 21:11
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-02 05:00 UTC	4	$217	110	110	+0	Down	+$3	03-02 08:38
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	14	$206	7,346	0	+7,346	Yes	-$206	02-02 17:00
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	2	$203	286	286	+0	No	+$3	02-13 12:04
us evacuates jerusalem embassy by march 31	5	$201	218	0	+218	No	+$17	03-06 09:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 06:50 UTC	2	$200	206	0	+206	Up	+$6	02-15 06:54
will bitcoin reach 72k february 9 15	2	$197	128	128	+0	No	-$15	02-14 21:04
will israel strike greater beirut on march 6 2026	2	$192	100	100	+0	Yes	+$6	03-06 09:08
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	2	$188	171	171	+0	Yes	+$88	04-19 08:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 22:45 UTC	1	$178	243	0	+243	Down	-$178	02-14 22:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 22:30 UTC	1	$177	178	0	+178	Up	+$2	02-14 22:44
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$176	164	164	+0	No	+$42	01-30 14:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 06:20 UTC	1	$166	178	0	+178	Up	+$11	02-15 06:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-27 19:39:38	Kurds declare independence from Iran?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x5e5944…
05-27 15:03:45	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	SELL	29	62¢	$18	0x0162eb…
05-27 14:56:46	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	SELL	161	62¢	$100	0xf7e96e…
05-27 14:33:26	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0x2ad981…
05-25 22:45:45	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	SELL	54	97¢	$53	0x1b56b2…
05-25 12:47:19	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	SELL	297	97¢	$288	0x92906d…
05-05 16:30:52	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	BUY	161	95¢	$152	0x0aa4b0…
05-05 16:29:32	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	414	37¢	$153	0xbbca14…
04-27 10:38:52	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x8f749e…
04-27 10:36:52	Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xdc2dbf…
04-21 19:58:20	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	SELL	171	100¢	$171	0x30efcb…
04-19 08:28:42	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	Yes	SELL	171	80¢	$138	0x2a7d8f…
04-19 08:28:06	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	SELL	64	81¢	$51	0xcc1a17…
04-12 06:12:37	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	64	56¢	$36	0xb1d1e9…
04-12 06:10:27	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	85	42¢	$36	0xba3c3b…
04-11 20:38:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	85	30¢	$26	0x16ab73…
04-11 20:37:41	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	SELL	29	88¢	$26	0x435b65…
04-07 05:23:23	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	BUY	175	80¢	$140	0xa28c4d…
04-05 05:49:03	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x49ee2e…
04-04 17:22:47	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x791a81…
04-04 16:59:17	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xda655f…
04-03 14:49:09	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x3c533e…
04-03 14:48:39	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x7cc733…
04-03 13:53:53	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	219	93¢	$204	0x2ea5cc…
04-02 17:53:57	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	219	91¢	$200	0x69da85…
04-02 17:53:35	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x02378b…
04-01 12:47:57	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	132	23¢	$30	0x36ff37…
04-01 12:38:01	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x2cf851…
04-01 12:37:07	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x9befe5…
03-30 18:40:37	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	29¢	$30	0x4f1598…
03-14 20:56:31	will the bank of israel decrease the bank of israel interest rate after the march decision	No	BUY	165	92¢	$152	0x760c0c…
03-14 18:20:47	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	SELL	189	22¢	$42	0xdacafb…
03-14 18:19:59	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	170	65¢	$110	0x1766f4…
03-09 14:54:51	will the bank of israel decrease the bank of israel interest rate after the march decision	No	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0xe2d600…
03-09 13:32:39	bitcoin up or down on march 9	Down	SELL	23	7¢	$2	0xcf3c20…
03-09 09:50:07	bitcoin up or down on march 9	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x850cfe…
03-09 07:30:31	will the bank of israel decrease the bank of israel interest rate after the march decision	No	BUY	120	79¢	$95	0x3bdb4d…
03-08 18:37:09	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	8	57¢	$4	0x0df682…
03-08 17:01:13	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	No	SELL	5	92¢	$4	0x653e73…
03-08 12:19:23	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	131	56¢	$74	0xf15c4c…
03-08 12:19:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	37¢	$74	0x98b300…
03-08 05:47:01	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x9437c3…
03-08 05:44:05	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x6a5336…
03-08 00:15:41	israel strike on damascus by march 31 2026	No	BUY	17	82¢	$14	0xab6dd7…
03-07 19:25:29	israel strike on damascus by march 31 2026	No	BUY	13	82¢	$11	0xd2d9dd…
03-07 19:23:11	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x56ac30…
03-07 19:01:25	will israel strike greater beirut on march 7 2026	No	SELL	16	47¢	$8	0x899a1b…
03-07 18:59:49	will israel strike greater beirut on march 7 2026	No	SELL	9	47¢	$4	0x92b6bd…
03-07 18:26:31	will israel strike greater beirut on march 7 2026	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x0f9b43…
03-07 17:30:37	will israel strike greater beirut on march 7 2026	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x0c0055…
03-07 17:28:09	will netanyahu visit nyc by march 31	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x1675f5…
03-07 03:37:29	israel strike on damascus by march 31 2026	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x70bcae…
03-06 14:19:37	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0x60f561…
03-06 13:52:53	masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x9821d5…
03-06 13:52:23	masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	Yes	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0x05e606…
03-06 13:40:01	masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x3cf387…
03-06 11:30:53	israel strike on damascus by march 31 2026	No	BUY	94	85¢	$80	0x614eeb…
03-06 11:26:05	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x69a3b4…
03-06 10:07:01	Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	No	BUY	13	95¢	$13	0x46a203…
03-06 09:36:15	us evacuates jerusalem embassy by march 31	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x083057…
03-06 09:34:29	will a new country join the abraham accords by march 31	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xc76def…
03-06 09:33:55	will netanyahu visit nyc by march 31	No	BUY	110	95¢	$104	0xe1ed14…
03-06 09:08:05	will israel strike greater beirut on march 6 2026	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x821933…
03-06 04:29:19	us evacuates jerusalem embassy by march 31	No	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x2272cf…
03-06 04:28:25	us evacuates jerusalem embassy by march 31	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x6a3dc1…
03-06 04:27:03	us evacuates jerusalem embassy by march 31	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xe0674d…
03-05 15:43:11	us evacuates jerusalem embassy by march 31	No	BUY	110	93¢	$102	0x3a6317…
03-05 09:03:53	will israel strike greater beirut on march 6 2026	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xc2a1cb…
03-05 08:59:01	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x19a8c7…
03-05 06:42:17	masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	Yes	SELL	82	25¢	$21	0x1c2530…
03-05 06:11:07	will israel strike greater beirut on march 5 2026	Yes	SELL	180	100¢	$180	0xd63a37…
03-04 21:11:17	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	SELL	227	42¢	$96	0x556954…
03-04 17:44:19	israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x4d2b90…
03-04 16:15:25	will israel strike greater beirut on march 5 2026	Yes	BUY	27	82¢	$22	0x0a6a97…
03-04 16:06:35	will israel strike greater beirut on march 5 2026	Yes	BUY	13	82¢	$11	0x5aac5a…
03-04 16:03:11	will israel strike greater beirut on march 5 2026	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x57aae9…
03-04 15:55:39	will israel strike greater beirut on march 5 2026	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xc2c513…
03-04 11:03:55	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	171	29¢	$50	0x8ead13…
03-04 08:08:31	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	SELL	465	97¢	$451	0xc6507f…
03-04 07:27:29	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	SELL	85	97¢	$82	0xb2a5ad…
03-03 19:31:13	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x74174c…
03-03 14:05:53	masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x2e5df2…
03-03 12:14:07	will israel strike greater beirut on march 5 2026	Yes	BUY	110	92¢	$101	0x72a144…
03-02 10:59:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x521dc2…
03-02 08:38:33	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-02 05:00 UTC	Down	SELL	46	100¢	$46	0xb0890f…
03-02 08:38:09	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-02 05:00 UTC	Down	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xe573fd…
03-02 08:37:53	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-02 05:00 UTC	Down	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0xe394bd…
03-02 08:02:03	bitcoin up or down march 2 3am et	Down	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x64580f…
03-02 07:56:03	bitcoin up or down march 2 2am et	Down	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x1dfd2c…
03-02 07:44:43	bitcoin up or down march 2 2am et	Down	BUY	60	93¢	$56	0x7b2b9f…
03-02 07:42:57	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-02 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	110	97¢	$107	0x0fff01…
03-01 17:03:37	bitcoin up or down on march 2	Down	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x43259d…
03-01 14:59:33	bitcoin up or down on march 1	Up	BUY	110	98¢	$108	0x97716c…
03-01 11:50:11	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	BUY	126	83¢	$105	0x354718…
03-01 11:46:47	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	70	70¢	$49	0x43cb5f…
03-01 11:45:27	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	BUY	74	83¢	$61	0x29b225…
03-01 09:26:15	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xd562f6…
03-01 09:25:31	masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	Yes	BUY	72	70¢	$50	0xcf0315…
03-01 09:04:05	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x6841ba…
03-01 00:29:59	will us or israel strike iran on march 1 2026	Yes	BUY	217	92¢	$200	0xfa177e…