Fat-Failure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

510

lifetime

Volume

$4.29K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 06-09 23:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

92% 100% +$9

Other

8% 100% +$0

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
wti closes above 93 on april 23 2026	1	$20	21	+21	open	—	04-23 20:29
tsla up or down on march 24 2026	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	03-24 19:10
Solana Up or Down on June 2?	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	06-02 15:10
xauusd up or down on march 30 2026	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	03-30 20:56
pltr up or down on april 7 2026	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	04-07 19:37
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 2?	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	06-02 20:30
aapl up or down on april 1 2026	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	04-01 19:25
googl up or down on april 9 2026	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	04-09 19:41
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on May 27?	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	05-27 20:50
wti closes above 88 on june 9 2026	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	06-09 20:30
nya up or down on march 24 2026	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	03-24 19:19
nvda up or down on march 18 2026	1	$20	21	+21	open	—	03-18 19:40
Ethereum Up or Down on June 2?	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	06-02 15:10
xrp up or down on march 27 2026	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	03-27 15:24
rut up or down on march 24 2026	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	03-24 19:10
solana up or down on march 28 2026	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	03-28 15:24
wti up or down on april 9 2026	1	$19	20	+20	open	—	04-09 20:14
ndx up or down on march 24 2026	1	$19	20	+20	open	—	03-24 19:10
bitcoin up or down on march 29 2026	1	$19	20	+20	open	—	03-29 15:13
tsla up or down on march 18 2026	1	$18	18	+18	open	—	03-18 19:13
eth updown 4h 1776657600	1	$15	16	+16	open	—	04-20 07:50
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	04-25 15:56
sol updown 4h 1775044800	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	04-01 15:56
eth updown 4h 1773763200	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	03-17 19:58
btc updown 4h 1773864000	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	03-18 23:50
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	04-28 07:50
btc updown 4h 1774339200	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	03-24 11:56
btc updown 4h 1776211200	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	04-15 03:50
btc updown 4h 1775721600	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	04-09 11:51
xrp updown 4h 1776067200	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	04-13 11:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 03:50:42	btc updown 4h 1781049600	Down	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xf91032…
06-10 03:50:40	solana up or down june 9 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x013d02…
06-10 03:50:37	ethereum up or down june 9 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe13912…
06-10 01:50:04	xrp up or down june 9 2026 9pm et	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x71945b…
06-09 23:43:51	btc updown 15m 1781047800	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7f4c76…
06-09 20:30:34	wti closes above 88 on june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xa7695c…
06-09 15:50:54	bitcoin up or down june 9 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe4fd2b…
06-05 05:29:46	sol updown 15m 1780636500	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb53dbc…
06-04 23:58:09	btc updown 15m 1780616700	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x7c119e…
06-04 02:54:18	ethereum up or down june 3 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xddfd93…
06-03 21:28:24	eth updown 15m 1780521300	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc862e2…
06-03 21:28:21	btc updown 15m 1780521300	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6522c4…
06-03 20:51:42	bitcoin up or down june 3 2026 4pm et	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc0f87f…
06-03 15:57:09	Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc66624…
06-03 15:50:37	XRP Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x46377b…
06-02 20:30:06	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 2?	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x468d83…
06-02 19:42:09	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x02d043…
06-02 15:10:44	Solana Up or Down on June 2?	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x6d9594…
06-02 15:10:42	Ethereum Up or Down on June 2?	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x5d20e5…
06-02 02:53:39	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5aec0f…
06-02 01:57:32	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x314537…
06-01 20:37:31	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 1?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xad8f76…
06-01 18:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xfdd3d1…
06-01 14:44:26	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xffe83a…
06-01 12:57:34	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x1a9acb…
06-01 09:58:17	BNB Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbf9fee…
06-01 06:55:12	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x3c999e…
06-01 05:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0e0bde…
06-01 04:42:21	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1eb45f…
06-01 03:13:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x29fed7…
05-31 23:51:05	Solana Up or Down - May 31, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xd825eb…
05-31 14:50:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x95aec3…
05-31 12:57:31	Solana Up or Down - May 31, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x998a58…
05-31 12:57:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd02f26…
05-31 12:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc2ca2f…
05-31 11:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x33bc9d…
05-31 05:50:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xba28b0…
05-31 05:44:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfc44be…
05-30 23:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xac0092…
05-30 20:51:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe3e9c2…
05-30 20:51:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x33fb6a…
05-28 11:42:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9528f9…
05-28 08:44:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4fa418…
05-28 04:28:01	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9e0c60…
05-27 20:50:02	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on May 27?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xf24aaf…
05-27 19:50:52	XRP Up or Down - May 27, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xaaf530…
05-27 18:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x030c73…
05-27 16:14:56	Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2b92a1…
05-27 12:55:18	Solana Up or Down - May 27, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x261dd7…
05-27 04:28:17	Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x53a6a8…
05-27 04:28:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6ae272…
05-26 23:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x50fd68…
05-26 17:57:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xde54d9…
05-26 15:59:20	XRP Up or Down - May 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7949ac…
05-26 15:42:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x73a1ee…
05-26 15:42:08	Solana Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xe38160…
05-26 14:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf2ea28…
05-26 12:29:53	Solana Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x53f561…
05-26 04:13:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3f2e08…
05-26 03:42:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xdc2b20…
05-26 02:28:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5bae87…
05-26 01:58:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6c08fc…
05-26 00:12:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xeeb846…
05-26 00:12:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1d66c3…
05-25 22:55:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2e46e4…
05-25 20:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf3cefb…
05-25 15:53:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x72aff0…
05-18 10:54:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xf86bff…
05-14 09:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5bec0c…
05-14 08:50:34	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x1af7f4…
05-13 21:50:08	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x829151…
05-13 21:50:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xce67fe…
05-13 20:15:54	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x5853ab…
05-13 19:29:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x998abc…
05-13 14:57:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa7d751…
05-13 14:57:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xc5f79e…
05-13 14:57:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x9a4698…
05-13 14:57:21	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x722f4f…
05-13 14:57:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd5ee66…
05-13 12:13:20	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x43d1cc…
05-13 09:54:15	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x52e069…
05-13 06:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2b8b88…
05-13 04:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xda457d…
05-13 03:50:20	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xa130ec…
05-13 02:54:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x2b4bcf…
05-13 02:28:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xde08bc…
05-13 02:27:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x648e90…
05-13 02:27:23	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa74daa…
05-13 00:57:52	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5c2b88…
05-12 23:57:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1e86c5…
05-12 11:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xafef81…
05-12 11:54:01	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xc2725d…
05-12 10:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbcaa49…
05-12 08:53:30	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x83c98e…
05-12 02:50:19	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x36c826…
05-11 17:50:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x065d2b…
05-11 17:50:23	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x9f9ca5…
05-11 14:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7c7ffa…
05-11 10:52:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x43c30d…
05-11 10:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf5bc80…