Granular-Pickaxe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

94.3%

Resolved

Trades

18,118

lifetime

Volume

$1.21M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$67

Open exposure

$305

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-06

last 06-30 00:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

64% 50% +$13

Politics

19% — —

Crypto

13% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 362 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+281	$277	100¢	$281	+$3	06-30 00:20
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	+24	$24	98¢	$24	$-0	06-25 00:01
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	+0	$-0	100¢	$0	+$0	06-25 12:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	193	$17.0K	9,231	8,054	+1,177	open	—	04-14 15:41
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	186	$13.3K	7,509	5,932	+1,577	open	—	04-12 20:32
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	134	$13.1K	7,627	5,690	+1,937	open	—	04-15 11:43
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	160	$13.1K	7,043	6,206	+837	open	—	03-29 17:31
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	369	$13.1K	6,844	6,379	+465	open	—	02-27 13:50
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	270	$12.4K	6,490	6,075	+415	open	—	04-05 12:56
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	172	$12.3K	7,176	5,353	+1,823	open	—	04-17 05:16
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	133	$12.3K	6,741	5,671	+1,070	open	—	03-30 17:26
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	103	$11.9K	6,486	5,595	+891	open	—	03-18 13:56
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	112	$11.7K	6,304	5,562	+741	open	—	03-28 01:41
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	123	$11.7K	6,802	4,997	+1,805	open	—	03-28 08:08
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	120	$11.0K	6,070	5,030	+1,040	open	—	03-25 02:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	118	$11.0K	6,562	4,608	+1,955	open	—	04-06 01:06
Netanyahu out by April 30?	148	$10.6K	6,129	4,681	+1,448	open	—	04-16 07:43
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	130	$10.3K	5,590	4,815	+775	open	—	03-30 21:27
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	121	$9.6K	5,056	4,636	+420	open	—	04-12 21:02
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	174	$9.6K	5,451	4,257	+1,195	open	—	03-31 06:51
netanyahu out by march 31 854	98	$9.6K	5,130	4,549	+581	open	—	03-31 06:12
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	144	$9.5K	5,761	3,866	+1,895	open	—	03-31 20:12
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	134	$9.4K	5,044	4,513	+531	open	—	04-20 11:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	96	$9.4K	5,224	4,299	+925	open	—	04-20 11:18
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	117	$9.2K	5,180	4,181	+999	open	—	03-30 02:40
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	83	$8.4K	4,303	4,178	+125	open	—	04-01 21:20
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	97	$8.3K	4,297	4,125	+172	open	—	03-28 13:07
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	81	$8.0K	4,432	3,754	+678	open	—	04-20 10:23
will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	140	$8.0K	4,464	3,665	+799	open	—	02-28 16:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	83	$8.0K	4,649	3,510	+1,139	open	—	04-18 14:18
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	102	$7.8K	4,553	3,348	+1,206	open	—	03-31 03:44
will the us next strike iran on february 20 2026 et	102	$7.6K	4,129	3,634	+495	open	—	02-21 08:22
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	84	$7.5K	3,928	3,620	+308	open	—	03-31 13:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 00:20:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xd4533a…
06-30 00:18:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x6021bd…
06-30 00:09:05	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0x3d2ac8…
06-29 21:46:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x12beae…
06-29 21:22:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xfcbed5…
06-29 21:15:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x437027…
06-29 21:09:40	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xf31386…
06-29 21:06:41	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xf6f4d2…
06-29 20:56:53	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x19d297…
06-29 19:24:02	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x5ff3b0…
06-29 19:17:49	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xbc758a…
06-29 17:56:28	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xff44cd…
06-29 17:50:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x73e9dd…
06-29 17:26:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x489591…
06-29 17:20:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xa1a107…
06-29 17:04:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xcfc4af…
06-29 16:59:41	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xbde9e8…
06-29 15:29:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xb739b4…
06-29 15:28:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xe5a214…
06-29 13:51:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xf9c350…
06-29 13:51:05	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xa7a330…
06-29 13:40:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x857181…
06-29 13:30:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xc7d529…
06-29 13:28:41	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x7efb3e…
06-29 13:28:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x92ad3c…
06-29 13:25:14	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xa0bc99…
06-29 13:18:29	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	99¢	$48	0xd88b73…
06-29 13:16:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xfcfc1a…
06-29 13:10:28	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x6a7c0e…
06-29 13:09:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x358d24…
06-29 13:02:04	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x45ccf1…
06-29 07:37:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xed0f63…
06-29 05:01:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x02a9e4…
06-29 04:39:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x439d92…
06-29 04:01:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xf08fda…
06-29 04:01:56	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xc5f622…
06-29 03:46:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x7a00cc…
06-29 03:28:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x027be4…
06-29 02:36:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0xeb2fbc…
06-29 02:00:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x73285e…
06-29 01:27:05	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa3a7ed…
06-29 01:23:11	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8f53cc…
06-29 01:17:52	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xe59cf5…
06-28 18:19:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0xf92e72…
06-28 18:08:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x46296f…
06-28 15:40:10	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0xa278c5…
06-28 15:27:28	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xc9ffed…
06-28 11:25:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x6b6002…
06-28 08:59:31	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x8dadf5…
06-28 08:28:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x478be2…
06-28 08:22:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x4bb892…
06-28 08:15:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x23b3f1…
06-28 08:12:25	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x677de5…
06-26 20:06:59	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x9267cb…
06-25 12:12:53	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x932a76…
06-25 00:01:55	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x8b1ec4…
06-23 21:20:23	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x3c4407…
06-23 05:39:02	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$8	0xbd6601…
06-23 05:08:53	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x822c48…
06-22 23:37:01	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xa32778…
06-22 14:31:13	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x81063a…
06-22 08:33:44	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xe583c4…
06-22 08:33:44	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x69d14e…
06-22 08:32:32	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x9baadd…
06-22 08:31:37	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x1fc390…
06-22 08:30:53	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x00d134…
06-22 08:30:14	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xe69ce3…
06-22 08:28:58	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0xb99f3a…
06-22 08:28:14	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0xb22a59…
06-22 08:27:23	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xfb40c7…
06-22 08:26:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xeb39c5…
06-22 08:26:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5fc24b…
06-22 08:25:29	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	99¢	$48	0x99ee5e…
06-22 08:24:16	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xb88f41…
06-22 08:23:20	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xec6bea…
06-22 08:20:10	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x6aeae7…
06-22 08:19:38	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xacbb33…
06-22 08:15:50	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x7d85fd…
06-22 08:15:38	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x401016…
06-22 08:11:55	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x650244…
06-22 07:55:47	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x3f0ee1…
06-22 07:51:49	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x3e1a61…
06-22 07:49:52	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x1d0191…
06-22 07:48:52	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x9e565e…
06-22 07:46:46	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x5f0e10…
06-22 07:46:04	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x83435b…
06-22 02:04:07	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x976e06…
06-22 02:02:46	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x6ee88d…
06-22 01:47:35	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x430577…
06-22 01:42:22	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x369ec3…
06-22 01:38:41	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xf3a0b2…
06-22 01:15:29	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x762414…
06-22 01:11:55	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x8cbcae…
06-22 01:11:55	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x4356d2…
06-22 00:19:13	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x46a1f1…
06-21 23:35:38	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x9218ee…
06-21 23:33:56	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x84532e…
06-21 23:05:37	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x1f6a0f…
06-21 18:20:22	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$14	0x52253c…
06-21 16:28:01	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	98¢	$14	0xe23a5e…