Costly-Bore — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.83K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.3%

Resolved

4,147

Trades

9,262

lifetime

Volume

$67.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-03

last 10-28 05:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 160 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 63% -$1,699

Other

3% 47% -$134

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 13:30 UTC	61	$321	980	0	+980	Up	-$127	02-06 13:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 13:15 UTC	43	$254	637	0	+637	Down	+$137	02-06 13:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 15:15 UTC	27	$252	738	0	+738	Down	-$3	02-05 15:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 02:45 UTC	39	$252	880	0	+880	Down	-$41	02-07 02:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 11:50 UTC	15	$250	302	0	+302	Down	+$52	03-06 11:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 16:00 UTC	28	$241	592	0	+592	Down	-$6	02-05 16:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 15:30 UTC	6	$228	132	131	+1	Up	+$32	02-11 15:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 11:15 UTC	44	$223	460	0	+460	Up	+$100	02-06 11:26
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 15:45 UTC	9	$222	120	120	+0	Down	+$16	02-11 15:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 15:45 UTC	5	$221	115	115	+0	Down	+$7	02-11 15:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 04:30 UTC	4	$214	169	167	+2	Down	+$119	02-11 04:45
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 15:30 UTC	9	$210	123	122	+1	Up	+$32	02-11 15:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 00:00 UTC	33	$209	686	0	+686	Down	-$28	02-06 00:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 16:15 UTC	4	$195	107	107	+1	Down	+$17	02-11 16:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 12:30 UTC	20	$191	364	0	+364	Down	-$94	02-07 12:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 16:45 UTC	6	$185	120	119	+2	Down	+$52	02-17 16:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 15:30 UTC	15	$176	516	0	+516	Up	-$51	02-05 15:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 12:30 UTC	6	$172	113	112	+1	Down	+$51	02-11 12:43
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 16:45 UTC	7	$171	93	92	+0	Down	+$12	02-17 16:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 14:15 UTC	5	$169	89	89	+0	Up	+$8	02-10 14:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 12:45 UTC	31	$162	387	0	+387	Up	-$1	02-06 12:56
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 16:00 UTC	4	$160	90	89	+1	Up	+$18	02-11 16:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-07 10:55 UTC	5	$160	85	84	+0	Down	+$7	03-07 11:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 19:15 UTC	5	$157	87	86	+0	Down	+$14	02-17 19:28
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-07 07:30 UTC	7	$157	83	83	+0	Up	+$7	03-07 07:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 05:00 UTC	6	$153	84	83	+0	Up	+$14	02-11 05:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 10:30 UTC	41	$151	294	0	+294	Up	+$81	02-06 10:38
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 10:15 UTC	21	$150	311	0	+311	Up	-$14	02-06 10:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 03:30 UTC	20	$146	403	0	+403	Down	-$76	02-07 03:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 11:15 UTC	9	$144	84	83	+1	Up	+$22	02-10 11:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 05:52:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$9	0xaca85c…
10-28 05:52:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x8230ba…
10-17 05:57:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x28ec54…
10-16 04:17:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xabb95c…
10-15 04:47:14	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x91e021…
10-15 04:47:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x110620…
10-13 04:18:41	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x0459b5…
10-13 04:17:20	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x3f34b4…
10-04 05:12:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x45b476…
10-01 04:57:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x56f3d1…
09-24 07:47:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x833ea7…
09-12 04:17:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 12?	Yes	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x829c80…
09-11 04:37:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x1b6c47…
09-01 05:12:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x69ada6…
08-31 05:12:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x6c2f60…
08-30 05:57:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xffdc1c…
08-29 07:02:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x6245dd…
08-27 04:17:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x8149e1…
08-24 04:27:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7a776a…
08-23 23:25:21	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	85¢	$31	0x69c1e4…
08-21 04:17:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xee05a6…
08-17 18:31:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0xa39712…
08-16 04:17:16	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xefa7e1…
08-11 05:07:16	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x928947…
08-09 05:17:18	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x953c71…
08-09 04:17:16	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x1a51ab…
08-08 01:17:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xb3ae24…
07-26 11:08:04	Will Reliance Industries Ltd be the largest Indian company?	No	SELL	60	17¢	$10	0x6f3877…
07-24 05:59:18	Will Reliance Industries Ltd be the largest Indian company?	No	BUY	60	27¢	$16	0xd52128…
07-22 22:41:12	us bank failure by december 31 2026 20260720194747677	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x131237…
07-21 18:38:33	us bank failure by december 31 2026 20260720194747677	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x634b17…
07-21 14:53:22	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	48	0¢	$0	0xb1738b…
07-21 14:53:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0x9e3e2f…
07-21 14:52:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	85	2¢	$2	0x6b5a2f…
07-21 14:52:34	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	38	7¢	$3	0xf2b2cd…
07-21 14:52:19	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	37	2¢	$1	0x3bed74…
07-21 14:52:07	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	42	3¢	$1	0xc6748f…
07-21 14:51:55	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	54	2¢	$1	0x3962d1…
07-21 14:51:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	125	0¢	$1	0x791de0…
07-12 01:14:14	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x160ad2…
07-12 01:13:41	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xd79ba5…
07-12 01:13:07	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xe68802…
07-07 13:20:02	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	36	0¢	$0	0xf8d7db…
07-07 13:19:49	Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	38	0¢	$0	0x83de35…
07-07 13:18:53	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x282aa4…
07-07 13:18:31	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0xe8de1d…
07-02 19:21:01	Will Titan Esports Club be the Last VCT CN Team Standing at EWC 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0x8bcfb4…
07-02 19:20:46	Will Titan Esports Club be the Last VCT CN Team Standing at EWC 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0xc1ef57…
06-26 16:19:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$2	0x0874d8…
06-26 16:19:16	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	85	4¢	$3	0xbddb30…
06-26 08:30:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xe9dd01…
06-26 08:30:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0x40a12a…
06-26 08:30:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	54	3¢	$1	0x48b81b…
06-25 02:30:01	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	42	6¢	$3	0x3b0f57…
06-25 02:29:59	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	48	3¢	$2	0xbd80a5…
06-24 23:43:37	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	48¢	$17	0x00c36c…
06-24 23:43:35	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	37	8¢	$3	0xf4a74b…
06-24 23:43:34	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	36	8¢	$3	0xcfa4fc…
06-24 23:43:32	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	38	20¢	$8	0x41fc6e…
06-24 23:43:26	Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xcb4c34…
06-22 06:10:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-22 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xa13ab9…
06-22 04:37:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-22 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xe35acd…
06-22 04:37:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-22 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xca2c19…
06-22 04:37:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-22 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x8474df…
06-22 04:37:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-22 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x6d1728…
06-22 02:51:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 02:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x910c2d…
06-18 16:22:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 16:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x287023…
06-18 07:36:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 07:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x8eb9ae…
06-17 08:32:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	95¢	$6	0x8f52b7…
06-16 03:25:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 03:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x52aacc…
06-15 20:47:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xbccca0…
06-15 11:52:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 11:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x2a53c6…
06-14 19:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x4e7c64…
06-13 22:27:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-13 22:25 UTC	Up	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x1ec2e2…
06-13 22:27:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-13 22:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x8630c5…
06-13 15:16:25	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x59b6a1…
06-12 07:56:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 07:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x287362…
06-11 03:56:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 03:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x4dfa57…
06-10 09:22:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 09:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x47590e…
06-09 22:51:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 22:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x94db89…
06-09 16:37:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 16:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x26a6fa…
06-09 06:41:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 06:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x7abfa1…
06-09 05:17:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x1cef5b…
06-09 04:15:15	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 9?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xb6fbbd…
06-09 04:00:19	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 9?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x109cff…
06-09 03:15:16	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 9?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x607ece…
06-09 03:00:15	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 9?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x28978c…
06-08 03:15:16	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 8?	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x070eff…
06-08 03:00:22	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 8?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xc104c6…
06-07 08:41:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 08:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	92¢	$3	0xf7348a…
06-07 08:41:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 08:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x59f76e…
06-07 03:30:12	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 7?	No	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0xa00b7b…
06-07 03:15:15	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 7?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0xec15a1…
06-07 03:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 7?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x866188…
06-07 03:00:24	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 7?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x3e72e0…
06-06 18:26:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-06 18:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$2	0x5eadf1…
06-06 18:26:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-06 18:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x7d3a43…
06-06 10:32:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-06 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xd2af34…
06-06 05:00:15	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xd03377…
06-06 03:41:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xba9288…