Natural-Good — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$137

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

53.0%

Resolved

2,189

Trades

3,066

lifetime

Volume

$10.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 17:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 142 days

Categories

Crypto

79% 58% -$9

Other

11% 25% -$77

Sports

6% 28% -$32

Politics

4% 14% -$20

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?	Yes		-4	-$2	98¢	$-4	-$2	07-02 17:25
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?	No		-4	-$2	2¢	$-0	+$2	07-02 17:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	14	$279	306	296	+10	Yes	-$3	06-07 13:39
Will M80 Win North America ACE Stage 3	5	$88	0	200	-200	Yes	-$12	07-11 05:58
moscow air traffic suspended by august 31 20260702184246100	5	$65	20	140	-120	Yes	+$0	07-04 14:59
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	7	$63	124	98	+26	No	-$3	06-07 13:48
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 30?	4	$60	0	120	-120	Yes	+$0	06-28 10:23
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.6–0.8%?	5	$59	0	100	-100	No	-$1	08-12 20:08
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 9?	4	$50	20	60	-40	No	-$6	09-09 05:48
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 0.2%?	4	$40	0	80	-80	No	$0	08-12 20:13
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 3?	5	$40	0	80	-80	Yes	$0	07-01 22:28
will fidesz kdnp win 70 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	2	$36	50	50	+0	Yes	-$12	04-12 03:58
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-03 16:15 UTC	4	$34	55	0	+55	Up	-$13	01-03 16:29
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	2	$33	20	20	+0	No	-$1	06-16 17:57
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24?	4	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$0	05-24 19:18
Will FURIA make a roster change before July?	6	$30	0	61	-61	No	-$1	06-21 18:17
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30?	2	$29	0	60	-60	No	-$1	06-28 20:29
will madison airs market cap be between 13pt0b and 13pt5b at market close on ipo day	2	$28	20	20	+0	No	+$0	04-10 18:41
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	4	$26	20	60	-40	open	—	07-31 01:15
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-02 18:00 UTC	3	$26	34	0	+34	Up	-$9	01-02 18:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 20:30 UTC	6	$25	15	15	+0	Down	+$2	02-05 20:44
will the announcers say guillotine during ufc 250 20260610175532912	2	$24	0	48	-48	No	$0	06-21 20:09
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 13?	2	$22	0	40	-40	Yes	+$2	08-13 07:17
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	3	$22	47	12	+35	Yes	+$2	05-25 09:48
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26?	2	$22	12	12	+0	No	+$1	05-26 03:07
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	05-26 18:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$0	05-26 19:48
will the announcers say hattrick hat trick during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729518	2	$21	0	40	-40	No	+$1	06-23 05:39
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28?	2	$21	11	11	+0	Yes	+$1	05-25 14:19
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-02 16:45 UTC	3	$20	27	0	+27	Up	+$2	01-02 16:57
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25?	2	$20	11	11	+0	No	+$0	05-25 14:18
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25?	3	$20	25	11	+14	Yes	+$1	05-24 19:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:48:55	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x280bad…
10-25 21:00:50	Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xb434a1…
10-24 21:09:00	Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x85ae55…
10-24 21:08:41	Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x6a1c3c…
10-24 21:08:27	Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xaa4b5e…
10-10 14:30:49	Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xc573eb…
10-10 14:29:40	Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x672ff0…
10-10 14:23:04	Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xb2a0ae…
10-10 14:03:21	Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x4f2a7f…
10-10 14:01:48	Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xf910b3…
10-10 14:01:39	Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x2089f2…
10-10 14:01:30	Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x571b9d…
10-04 10:05:34	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xecdee3…
09-26 11:09:32	Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x8bd918…
09-26 11:09:18	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x066b61…
09-26 08:30:54	Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x14e23a…
09-26 08:30:38	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xf46103…
09-13 14:14:00	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x562944…
09-13 14:13:49	Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x8e0175…
09-13 13:54:25	Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xbb80d0…
09-13 13:53:51	Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0x2a2461…
09-13 07:20:52	Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x550ecd…
09-13 07:20:40	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x7eac31…
09-13 07:20:34	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x59a26a…
09-13 07:19:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x920e49…
09-13 05:09:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe62502…
09-13 05:07:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xe51065…
09-12 14:58:40	Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x4fab8f…
09-12 14:53:48	Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xd52fa8…
09-12 14:53:33	Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x5dbb3d…
09-09 05:48:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 9?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xcf2457…
09-09 05:45:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 9?	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xfc4d9e…
09-09 05:44:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 9?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xd391db…
09-09 05:40:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 9?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x48a563…
09-09 05:37:52	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 9?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x060ead…
09-09 05:37:33	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 9?	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xb6be75…
09-08 21:53:49	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 9?	Yes	SELL	15	89¢	$13	0x02f249…
09-08 21:48:01	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 9?	Yes	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x5df3a1…
09-08 21:46:13	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 9?	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xf23b16…
09-08 21:40:39	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 9?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x457d6c…
09-08 21:19:27	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 9?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x7bfaca…
09-08 20:55:25	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on September 8?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xe42449…
09-08 20:16:36	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on September 8?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x82e219…
09-08 20:14:24	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on September 8?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xe8fa3e…
09-08 20:12:46	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on September 8?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xc8cd71…
09-08 20:02:34	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on September 8?	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xb4f56e…
09-08 19:56:33	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on September 8?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x264d29…
09-08 08:17:43	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 24°C on September 8?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xcc6937…
09-08 07:50:15	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 24°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x8e8f26…
09-06 14:35:33	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x3a5f2c…
09-06 14:30:55	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xf213f4…
09-06 14:30:48	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0xc63ee8…
09-06 14:30:30	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xab740a…
09-06 14:30:06	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	12	72¢	$9	0xbe8e2b…
09-06 13:45:52	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x276832…
09-05 14:01:01	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x0281ff…
09-05 14:00:57	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x110644…
09-05 13:36:00	Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x5f8c22…
09-05 13:34:24	Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x260538…
08-30 19:06:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 19:05 UTC	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xd961f5…
08-30 19:01:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 19:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x58eb26…
08-28 17:37:27	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000 and $1,153,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	4	45¢	$2	0xc32666…
08-28 16:51:31	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000 and $1,153,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	12	45¢	$5	0xdfc17d…
08-28 16:51:31	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000 and $1,153,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xc5d83a…
08-28 16:51:31	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000 and $1,153,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x144603…
08-28 08:02:06	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0x93463c…
08-28 08:01:49	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x9854b8…
08-28 08:01:06	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x9013fa…
08-28 07:23:40	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x4882ff…
08-28 07:22:21	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0x90b6c2…
08-28 07:11:04	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0xe0485c…
08-28 07:07:58	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xd9ed7f…
08-27 12:24:10	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 12:20 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc1d9c7…
08-27 12:23:15	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 12:20 UTC	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x2deff9…
08-27 05:14:00	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 05:10 UTC	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x000461…
08-26 20:53:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 20:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xc31ddc…
08-26 18:51:18	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x3f2471…
08-26 15:00:39	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 26?	Yes	SELL	15	98¢	$14	0x2b8a6f…
08-26 14:49:18	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x9c68a8…
08-26 14:48:24	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xf42fc6…
08-26 14:00:45	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 26?	No	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0xdbc28f…
08-26 14:00:37	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 26?	No	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0x17f67a…
08-26 13:58:45	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 26?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x36a7af…
08-23 19:01:28	Will Hoodwink Be the Most Picked Hero at The International 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x93085e…
08-23 14:02:52	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	4	85¢	$3	0x6c62b4…
08-23 12:21:49	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xed245f…
08-23 12:21:40	Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x72ad33…
08-23 12:21:30	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x25075d…
08-19 13:11:46	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x04d0b3…
08-16 19:49:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 19:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xb1a9fa…
08-16 19:49:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 19:45 UTC	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x5f9d49…
08-16 19:48:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xd0dd2d…
08-16 16:04:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 16:00 UTC	Up	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0xdf3110…
08-16 16:01:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x551b6d…
08-15 20:52:28	ufc isl ian1 2026 08 15	Ian Machado Garry	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x628ec6…
08-15 12:50:01	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x5bc2fb…
08-15 09:23:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xfc85ad…
08-15 09:11:13	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x3f6730…
08-15 09:02:10	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 15?	No	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x05d889…
08-13 15:11:03	Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?	No	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x4c1c70…