Failing-Steak — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5.46K

Unrealized P&L

+$586

Hit rate

53.7%

Resolved

341

Trades

919

lifetime

Volume

$133.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$145

Open exposure

$763

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-18

last 09-20 13:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

55% 42% -$4,844

Politics

43% 38% -$237

Crypto

2% 60% -$298

Sports

0% 0% -$86

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	-12,524	-$863	4¢	$-482	+$381	09-17 18:21
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	-917	-$508	18¢	$-161	+$348	06-12 16:18
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	+2,189	$263	6¢	$120	-$142	09-20 13:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	11	$16.8K	9,758	9,758	+0	Yes	+$1,662	04-05 08:10
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	32	$6.3K	4,113	4,118	-5	No	-$493	04-09 01:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	3	$5.6K	4,707	4,698	+9	Yes	+$3,792	04-30 05:20
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	84	$5.3K	10,434	10,325	+109	Yes	+$535	04-08 22:36
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	3	$4.2K	4,348	4,348	+0	Yes	+$2,245	04-07 23:11
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	26	$4.1K	6,625	6,625	+0	No	-$3,355	05-28 05:03
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	7	$3.8K	2,558	2,558	+0	Yes	-$546	04-07 22:07
Trump out as President before 2027?	20	$3.5K	13,341	25,866	-12,524	open	—	09-17 18:21
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$3.4K	4,615	4,615	+0	Yes	+$2,212	04-07 23:12
Kash Patel out by June 30?	6	$3.3K	4,434	6,417	-1,983	No	-$744	05-24 00:33
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	20	$3.2K	8,865	7,954	+911	No	-$2,696	04-09 02:22
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	7	$3.1K	39,888	39,888	+0	No	-$1,399	05-21 19:18
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	4	$2.7K	6,119	6,119	+0	No	-$336	04-07 15:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	14	$2.1K	28,903	28,903	+0	No	-$842	04-12 16:04
Kash Patel out by December 31?	12	$2.0K	1,199	2,116	-917	open	—	06-12 16:18
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	2	$2.0K	1,159	1,159	+0	Yes	+$358	06-22 19:21
fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 total 4pt5	2	$1.9K	1,100	1,100	+0	Over	+$321	06-23 19:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	5	$1.8K	10,000	10,000	+0	Yes	+$20	04-09 02:27
fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 2pt5	5	$1.8K	1,204	1,204	+0	Over	-$12	06-22 19:50
fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 team total away 0pt5	3	$1.8K	1,051	1,051	+0	Over	+$343	06-20 19:03
Kash Patel out by April 30?	18	$1.6K	7,191	1,758	+5,433	No	-$1,283	04-29 15:25
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	3	$1.6K	1,839	0	+1,839	Yes	+$250	06-23 01:26
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	1	$1.4K	1,775	0	+1,775	Yes	-$1,441	06-25 15:27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	4	$1.4K	3,578	3,475	+103	No	-$618	04-09 02:24
fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 4pt5	2	$1.4K	1,045	1,045	+0	Under	-$21	06-22 20:55
fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 team total home 1pt5	4	$1.4K	1,589	505	+1,084	Over	+$367	06-20 19:56
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$1.3K	31,394	31,394	+0	No	-$1,259	04-02 01:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	2	$1.3K	2,945	2,867	+78	No	-$713	04-23 14:54
fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 total 1pt5	3	$1.3K	1,126	400	+726	Over	+$119	06-20 19:55
fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 team total home 0pt5	2	$1.1K	821	400	+421	Over	+$43	06-22 17:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-20 13:32:46	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	55	12¢	$7	0xb98368…
09-20 11:15:00	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x334b16…
09-20 08:14:13	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	27	12¢	$3	0x2b16f9…
09-20 06:44:16	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	23	12¢	$3	0x9571c9…
09-20 06:42:13	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	58	12¢	$7	0xf0e1ef…
09-20 06:39:25	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	36	12¢	$4	0x2fe468…
09-20 06:25:12	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	27	12¢	$3	0x7b667e…
09-20 06:20:43	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	31	12¢	$4	0xeecde5…
09-20 04:30:25	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xa7204e…
09-20 00:34:09	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x27b119…
09-19 16:09:57	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	210	12¢	$25	0xe7e281…
09-19 15:50:32	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x6e61b3…
09-19 15:22:05	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x594d0c…
09-19 15:04:24	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	110	12¢	$13	0x0aef2c…
09-19 02:07:39	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	28	12¢	$3	0x475a99…
09-18 18:48:40	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x41d4e9…
09-18 16:42:42	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x75d2db…
09-18 16:25:25	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0xe1cc76…
09-18 16:25:24	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x05ef3a…
09-18 13:08:23	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0xd81c3e…
09-18 13:07:08	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0x0ddac4…
09-18 13:03:03	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x5bb28f…
09-17 21:59:39	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0xad036b…
09-17 21:16:36	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0x5f0e21…
09-17 18:23:12	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0xfc4e98…
09-17 18:23:09	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	1,274	12¢	$153	0x86d3c9…
09-17 18:21:13	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5,321	5¢	$266	0x7b41cd…
07-07 18:38:44	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	47	39¢	$18	0xe810f6…
07-04 00:07:22	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Cabo Verde	BUY	1,200	6¢	$73	0x70e49c…
07-04 00:06:40	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,968	6¢	$119	0xa90962…
07-03 21:55:47	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	591	79¢	$467	0x32c14c…
07-03 21:50:05	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 spread home 2pt5	Argentina	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x050ee5…
07-03 21:49:46	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 spread home 3pt5	Argentina	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0xf8d729…
07-03 21:48:47	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 spread home 4pt5	Argentina	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x27cf4d…
07-03 21:47:11	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	450	62¢	$279	0xdc843d…
07-03 19:22:34	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	320	100¢	$320	0x3f5fcf…
07-03 19:02:53	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	55	7¢	$4	0x0137ca…
07-03 18:27:47	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	320	81¢	$259	0x64166a…
07-03 18:25:34	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 spread away 1pt5	Egypt	BUY	150	32¢	$48	0xe0fb93…
07-03 18:24:13	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	343	55¢	$189	0xd46829…
07-03 18:22:13	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team total away 0pt5	Over	SELL	500	100¢	$500	0x457a38…
07-03 06:31:05	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	500	70¢	$350	0xc477c7…
07-03 03:44:04	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 first half total 1pt5	Under	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0x276305…
07-03 03:42:32	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 first half total 1pt5	Under	BUY	22	80¢	$17	0xf3c077…
07-03 03:39:02	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$37	0x35fc56…
07-03 03:38:23	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,800	3¢	$49	0xf4685c…
07-03 03:13:23	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 spread home 1pt5	Algeria	BUY	181	64¢	$115	0xba2106…
07-03 03:13:22	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 spread home 1pt5	Algeria	BUY	19	64¢	$12	0xcb1ef4…
07-03 03:13:11	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 spread home 1pt5	Algeria	BUY	200	64¢	$127	0x866cd7…
07-03 03:10:50	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	325	36¢	$117	0xa92cb6…
07-03 03:10:46	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x0c0a79…
07-03 03:10:44	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x8edeca…
07-03 03:10:44	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	34	36¢	$12	0x31efc0…
07-03 03:10:40	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x0421c4…
07-02 22:56:35	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	252	79¢	$199	0x9fce26…
07-02 22:52:34	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	405	58¢	$235	0xcc4139…
07-02 22:45:13	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,700	7¢	$189	0x6230ae…
07-02 15:50:10	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 spread home 1pt5	Spain	BUY	45	52¢	$24	0x1cdf42…
07-02 15:49:50	Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	784	76¢	$600	0xa5745c…
07-01 20:17:34	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 spread home 1pt5	United States	BUY	81	48¢	$39	0x6b465e…
07-01 20:16:52	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Senegal	BUY	92	39¢	$36	0x75540a…
07-01 20:15:20	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	504	72¢	$363	0x2c2b0a…
07-01 02:36:10	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	95	82¢	$78	0xde0d14…
07-01 02:33:25	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	4	61¢	$2	0x832aec…
07-01 02:33:25	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	97	61¢	$59	0x74e0b3…
07-01 02:33:01	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	231	81¢	$187	0xfd1ae3…
07-01 02:30:44	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	Mexico	BUY	102	40¢	$40	0x0d4f2d…
07-01 02:29:59	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 team total home 0pt5	Over	SELL	371	100¢	$370	0xdc4f8e…
07-01 00:52:59	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0x726799…
07-01 00:47:01	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	SELL	153	42¢	$64	0xf85901…
07-01 00:45:40	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	1	69¢	$0	0x526c37…
07-01 00:45:38	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	51	69¢	$35	0xf01897…
07-01 00:45:38	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	319	69¢	$220	0x15c2da…
07-01 00:43:25	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	152	57¢	$87	0xb05d4a…
07-01 00:41:53	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	153	43¢	$66	0x231bad…
06-30 22:20:19	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 2pt5	France	BUY	202	60¢	$121	0xf9f3be…
06-30 22:19:31	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 team total home 1pt5	Over	SELL	332	100¢	$332	0x6bae3a…
06-30 15:15:37	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	332	75¢	$249	0x70e1a7…
06-29 23:37:08	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 team to advance	Netherlands	BUY	125	59¢	$74	0x9fde8a…
06-29 23:36:02	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	75	100¢	$75	0x52d396…
06-29 19:36:01	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	75	81¢	$61	0xe24131…
06-29 19:06:14	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	Germany	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0xa33e2c…
06-29 18:46:47	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x9d263a…
06-29 18:30:07	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team total home 0pt5	Over	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0xacbfe1…
06-29 18:00:44	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x30fa8c…
06-29 17:58:05	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Brazil	BUY	41	43¢	$17	0xbf08b0…
06-27 21:58:08	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 spread away 1pt5	Panama	BUY	30	58¢	$18	0xbb1716…
06-27 21:57:38	Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x4b438f…
06-27 21:56:26	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 spread away 1pt5	Panama	BUY	81	58¢	$47	0x0e16b5…
06-27 21:53:37	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 team total away 1pt5	Over	SELL	150	50¢	$75	0xa9b0e2…
06-27 19:32:41	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	150	81¢	$122	0x2e5b89…
06-27 19:30:55	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 spread away 2pt5	Panama	SELL	35	53¢	$19	0x01e02d…
06-27 16:52:19	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	36	52¢	$18	0xa4523d…
06-27 16:46:50	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 spread away 2pt5	Panama	BUY	35	55¢	$20	0x903849…
06-27 03:11:38	New Zealand to score first vs. Belgium?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0xf867de…
06-27 03:11:34	New Zealand to score first vs. Belgium?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x1a4c0f…
06-27 03:11:29	New Zealand to score first vs. Belgium?	Yes	BUY	32	17¢	$5	0x1f0735…
06-27 03:11:25	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	BUY	153	5¢	$8	0xe9397e…
06-27 03:01:55	Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	205	9¢	$18	0x9b4ecb…
06-27 03:00:25	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x19d836…