Organic-Smuggling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$421

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

50.4%

Resolved

1,357

Trades

3,997

lifetime

Volume

$152.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$38

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 10-26 18:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 165 days

Categories

Crypto

72% 38% +$2,319

Other

28% 32% -$2,740

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	6	$1.1K	1,435	1,253	+182	LGD Gaming	-$139	06-02 13:06
bitcoin up or down on july 5 2026	11	$820	679	679	+0	Down	+$220	07-05 16:14
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In	9	$627	615	615	+0	Team WE	+$235	05-23 10:24
ethereum up or down on july 12 2026	6	$606	655	655	+0	Up	+$6	07-12 15:37
LoL: Team WE vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs	13	$604	673	673	+0	Team WE	+$204	10-15 13:12
ethereum up or down on june 16 2026	5	$592	417	417	+0	Down	+$192	06-16 04:51
bitcoin up or down on july 31 2026	7	$568	426	426	+0	Down	+$168	07-31 14:28
ethereum up or down on september 30 2026	8	$567	445	445	+0	Up	+$177	09-30 16:03
lol hle1 ly 2026 07 11	5	$529	1,271	900	+371	Hanwha Life Esports	+$136	07-11 11:54
ethereum up or down on july 20 2026	6	$513	535	535	+0	Up	+$113	07-20 16:07
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	3	$500	400	400	+0	Yes	+$300	06-28 01:32
bitcoin up or down on september 30 2026	6	$491	418	418	+0	Up	+$91	09-30 11:09
lol g2 t1 2026 07 08	5	$490	607	451	+156	G2 Esports	+$90	07-08 09:44
lol tes al 2026 07 29	7	$466	400	400	+0	Anyone's Legend	+$66	07-29 10:57
ethereum up or down on august 13 2026	4	$455	338	338	+0	Down	+$155	08-13 16:01
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	6	$452	407	407	+0	Weibo Gaming	+$152	05-14 15:38
lol blg hle1 2026 07 12	8	$450	546	546	+0	Hanwha Life Esports	+$50	07-12 11:31
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	4	$448	370	370	+0	Yes	+$248	06-21 01:56
ethereum up or down on june 19 2026	6	$445	302	302	+0	Up	+$145	06-19 16:06
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Playoffs	10	$439	645	404	+241	Hanwha Life Esports	+$39	09-02 11:42
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	7	$436	640	640	+0	EDward Gaming	+$136	05-13 11:50
lol kt dk 2026 06 07	8	$431	750	465	+285	KT Rolster	-$69	06-07 12:36
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-22 12:00 UTC	9	$419	468	468	+0	Up	+$119	07-22 15:59
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	2	$412	312	312	+0	Yes	+$212	07-07 22:47
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In	6	$406	360	360	+0	LGD Gaming	+$106	05-24 15:30
bitcoin up or down on august 12 2026	6	$404	440	440	+0	Down	+$4	08-12 14:58
Norway vs. England: Second half draw?	4	$391	315	315	+0	Yes	+$191	07-11 23:02
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-28 12:00 UTC	6	$386	301	301	+0	Up	+$186	07-28 16:00
lol tes ig1 2026 09 17	7	$380	303	303	+0	Top Esports	+$182	09-17 12:51
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	5	$379	357	357	+0	Yes	+$179	06-26 01:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 18:38:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	286	37¢	$106	0x465f02…
10-26 18:13:39	LoL: Karmine Corp vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Karmine Corp	BUY	109	23¢	$25	0xe83abb…
10-26 16:27:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0x8583cc…
10-25 17:53:03	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Invictus Gaming	SELL	71	100¢	$71	0x83d4cb…
10-25 17:26:27	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Invictus Gaming	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x1cccff…
10-25 16:25:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0xdb8893…
10-25 16:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	80	43¢	$34	0xa6eb11…
10-25 14:26:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	146	19¢	$28	0xec5a31…
10-25 13:45:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0xac0519…
10-25 13:45:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0xe13882…
10-25 13:44:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	42¢	$10	0x11d980…
10-25 13:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	147	24¢	$36	0xedb916…
10-25 13:12:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0x44eaf1…
10-25 13:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0x202902…
10-24 18:11:30	LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	CTBC Flying Oyster	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x607e2f…
10-24 18:05:59	LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	CTBC Flying Oyster	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0xc7ba62…
10-24 17:42:36	LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Top Esports	SELL	127	99¢	$125	0xbc18bb…
10-24 17:18:30	LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Top Esports	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0xc433cb…
10-24 17:16:11	LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Top Esports	BUY	64	39¢	$25	0xb83aa7…
10-24 16:23:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0x553636…
10-24 16:03:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0x700235…
10-24 11:12:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	15¢	$1	0xb9cfc8…
10-24 11:08:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	315	16¢	$50	0x4b2f52…
10-24 08:47:51	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 24?	Up	SELL	435	4¢	$17	0xb09546…
10-24 08:47:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	325	31¢	$100	0x47a211…
10-23 18:49:02	LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Karmine Corp	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0xde62e2…
10-23 18:37:39	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Top Esports	BUY	132	19¢	$25	0xcf76f2…
10-23 17:35:26	LoL: Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Invictus Gaming	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x03bbcf…
10-23 16:26:50	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 24?	Up	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xf2708f…
10-23 16:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 24?	Up	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xe7f25f…
10-23 15:57:41	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 23?	Up	SELL	471	31¢	$147	0x0a7614…
10-23 09:48:41	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 23?	Up	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x43f38e…
10-23 01:18:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0x4bf7e8…
10-22 18:39:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	209	7¢	$15	0xb8e32d…
10-22 18:22:50	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 23?	Up	BUY	263	38¢	$100	0xbe80f2…
10-22 16:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	209	48¢	$100	0x8e026f…
10-22 15:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	205	24¢	$49	0x565210…
10-22 15:26:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0xeaa320…
10-22 13:09:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0xdbff83…
10-22 13:07:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x5742fa…
10-22 12:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x59b705…
10-22 12:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0xe26d3f…
10-22 12:54:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0xbaa8d4…
10-22 11:35:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 7AM ET	Up	SELL	187	23¢	$43	0xe7e701…
10-22 11:09:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	63	40¢	$25	0xdbd924…
10-22 11:08:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	62	41¢	$25	0x648b01…
10-22 11:08:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0x816dfb…
10-22 11:07:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	80	10¢	$8	0x4f5eb8…
10-22 11:06:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	40	10¢	$4	0xd7b699…
10-22 11:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	255	11¢	$29	0x76079e…
10-22 11:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	75	14¢	$10	0xb93e45…
10-22 08:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	227	44¢	$100	0x6f4804…
10-22 08:03:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0x7ec261…
10-22 04:37:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	250	40¢	$100	0x1fe9a3…
10-22 04:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x225396…
10-22 03:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	209	24¢	$50	0xd62f3b…
10-22 03:08:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x855845…
10-22 03:08:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xb6cb5a…
10-22 03:07:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	148	49¢	$72	0x2596b7…
10-22 02:05:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0x0599a8…
10-21 14:13:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0xccf72d…
10-21 14:12:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x29b7fa…
10-21 09:38:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	212	19¢	$40	0xaf3171…
10-21 08:51:39	Ethereum Up or Down on October 21?	Up	SELL	111	67¢	$74	0x0cbd69…
10-21 08:33:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	212	47¢	$100	0x63252f…
10-21 07:07:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	213	25¢	$53	0x86e13f…
10-21 05:50:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x88cb3a…
10-20 18:45:44	Ethereum Up or Down on October 21?	Up	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0x59e5e9…
10-20 18:44:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	232	33¢	$77	0x379e28…
10-20 16:18:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0x1cb74c…
10-20 16:18:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0x8a2e1f…
10-20 16:12:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x5a2cbc…
10-20 16:11:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x8ea54b…
10-20 16:00:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	179	100¢	$178	0xbb8e28…
10-20 15:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	60	97¢	$58	0x03c10f…
10-20 13:32:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x041ef3…
10-20 13:32:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	40	42¢	$17	0x5de76a…
10-20 13:31:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	140	41¢	$57	0x37e4bf…
10-20 11:25:51	Ethereum Up or Down on October 20?	Up	SELL	241	37¢	$88	0xd36a0d…
10-20 11:25:41	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 20?	Up	SELL	440	26¢	$115	0x6d1c99…
10-20 11:24:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	119	29¢	$35	0x2a6943…
10-20 11:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	109	28¢	$31	0x24bae0…
10-20 08:02:55	Ethereum Up or Down on October 20?	Up	BUY	241	42¢	$100	0x5c294d…
10-20 08:02:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	228	44¢	$100	0xca9ec9…
10-20 07:02:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 2AM ET	Up	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x05da5a…
10-20 07:02:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2AM ET	Up	SELL	60	100¢	$59	0x25414e…
10-20 06:10:19	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	35	40¢	$14	0x142aeb…
10-20 06:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0x4d144d…
10-20 03:43:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	58	17¢	$10	0xeb4d6a…
10-20 03:43:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	53	19¢	$10	0xdf9483…
10-20 03:10:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x3a8761…
10-20 03:10:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x05587d…
10-20 02:47:42	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 20?	Up	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0x0c7ee1…
10-19 19:57:27	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 20?	Up	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0x3aee27…
10-19 19:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	205	33¢	$68	0x0f3b5f…
10-19 17:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	205	49¢	$100	0x145f82…
10-19 16:11:21	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19?	Up	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xde8e65…
10-19 15:35:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 11AM ET	Up	SELL	112	31¢	$35	0xd5d839…
10-19 15:22:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	66	37¢	$24	0xea7b07…
10-19 15:21:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	66	34¢	$22	0x93ad6c…