Pessimistic-Blow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.78K

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

65.0%

Resolved

3,271

Trades

8,643

lifetime

Volume

$182.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-27 10:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 221 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 47% -$3,540

Other

1% 33% -$257

Sports

1% 44% +$123

Politics

1% 30% -$117

Tech

0% 33% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 427 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		-23	-$10	26¢	$-6	+$4	05-05 22:00
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		-21	-$8	8¢	$-2	+$6	05-05 22:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	—	+9	$5	1¢	$0	-$5	10-27 12:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 18:00 UTC	3	$2.5K	2,344	1,511	+833	Up	+$466	09-29 18:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 17:50 UTC	4	$2.4K	1,625	1,359	+267	Down	+$325	09-29 17:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 17:45 UTC	7	$2.1K	1,689	1,460	+229	Down	+$812	09-29 17:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 17:55 UTC	7	$2.0K	2,291	1,012	+1,278	Down	+$32	09-29 17:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	6	$1.7K	2,164	1,018	+1,146	Down	+$268	09-29 18:29
bitcoin up or down january 11 4pm et	40	$1.2K	1,632	1,226	+406	Up	-$29	01-11 21:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 17:40 UTC	2	$1.0K	653	653	+0	Up	+$247	09-29 17:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 18:05 UTC	1	$1.0K	1,676	0	+1,676	Up	+$676	09-29 18:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 18:15 UTC	1	$900	1,521	0	+1,521	Down	+$621	09-29 18:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 06:00 UTC	4	$859	615	615	+0	Up	+$359	07-23 06:05
bitcoin up or down january 11 5pm et	25	$791	802	760	+42	Down	+$23	01-11 22:52
bitcoin up or down june 16 2026 6pm et	10	$774	1,041	1,041	+0	Up	+$78	06-16 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	6	$731	741	469	+272	Up	+$111	10-12 23:24
bitcoin up or down june 16 2026 5pm et	25	$638	961	961	+0	Down	+$128	06-16 21:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	5	$634	636	357	+279	Up	+$74	09-29 18:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	8	$631	593	397	+195	Up	+$156	10-11 11:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 17:35 UTC	2	$624	515	515	+0	Down	+$24	09-29 17:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 22:55 UTC	6	$623	1,432	432	+1,000	Up	+$232	07-25 23:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	5	$548	428	428	+0	Up	+$116	10-13 01:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 18:10 UTC	2	$540	748	0	+748	Up	-$540	09-29 18:11
bitcoin up or down january 12 4am et	33	$529	526	356	+171	Down	+$144	01-12 09:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	5	$519	430	430	+0	Up	+$39	10-12 23:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	2	$512	312	312	+0	Up	+$112	10-12 19:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	5	$499	465	385	+81	Down	+$255	10-11 13:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	2	$496	299	298	+0	Down	+$96	10-13 03:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	2	$494	323	323	+0	Up	+$94	10-12 20:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 22:10 UTC	7	$493	944	208	+736	Up	-$81	07-28 22:15
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	15	$492	1,064	1,064	+0	No	-$140	07-11 22:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	3	$480	882	0	+882	Up	-$480	09-29 18:31
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 5PM ET	5	$475	620	463	+156	Down	+$12	05-19 21:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 12:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0xe7f62d…
10-27 12:02:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xea8de5…
10-27 12:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x498ad3…
10-27 11:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xe409d0…
10-27 11:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x3bb71d…
10-27 11:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	28¢	$2	0xb52c10…
10-27 10:47:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x5fcccc…
10-27 10:47:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc3c0ae…
10-27 10:44:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x7d5f9c…
10-27 10:43:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0x3ea2ca…
10-27 10:41:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	48¢	$4	0x2ad639…
10-27 10:29:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0f2d8e…
10-27 10:26:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	4	61¢	$2	0xa6c3f4…
10-27 10:26:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x9b5965…
10-27 10:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x7970cf…
10-27 10:07:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	5	90¢	$5	0xb82f2b…
10-27 10:07:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	4	90¢	$3	0x3d767f…
10-27 10:07:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x4135d3…
10-27 10:06:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xb6cb89…
10-27 09:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x2363c8…
10-27 09:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	54¢	$5	0x252cc4…
10-27 09:09:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	16	48¢	$8	0xc936b3…
10-27 09:06:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x6080ef…
10-27 09:04:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	50¢	$5	0x32abe2…
10-27 08:54:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0x86d33a…
10-27 08:49:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1e14ac…
10-27 08:45:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	17	44¢	$8	0xa2ad70…
10-27 08:40:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	21	15¢	$3	0xdf58ec…
10-27 08:40:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd26ec9…
10-27 08:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0xb5c645…
10-27 08:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0x875b88…
10-27 08:34:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xb7bd3e…
10-27 08:34:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x6e6c42…
10-27 08:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0xfca1e2…
10-27 08:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	17	90¢	$16	0xe79a12…
10-27 08:31:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xce9738…
10-27 08:29:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	49¢	$6	0xfad614…
10-27 08:23:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x3d5567…
10-27 08:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xa7a8d4…
10-27 06:27:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xaf28a7…
10-27 06:27:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x614117…
10-27 06:27:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x2fc7ed…
10-27 06:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$5	0xf9f1dc…
10-27 05:58:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	23¢	$2	0xa5d940…
10-27 05:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0x86872b…
10-27 05:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xcc9f69…
10-26 22:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	4	90¢	$3	0xf7952a…
10-26 22:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xf681c5…
10-26 22:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xaad9ff…
10-26 22:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0x8b6082…
10-26 22:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	90¢	$5	0x57a216…
10-26 22:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0x4d1381…
10-26 22:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x6df0c9…
10-26 22:41:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	12	91¢	$11	0xdcdedb…
10-26 22:39:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0x3771af…
10-26 22:39:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	SELL	16	83¢	$13	0x6ebe22…
10-26 22:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x560ac6…
10-26 22:33:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x4a0f08…
10-26 22:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0xa4deea…
10-26 22:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x69adab…
10-26 22:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x9ef33c…
10-26 22:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0x23f4a2…
10-26 22:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0xe31a16…
10-26 22:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x82dd71…
10-26 22:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xeb976d…
10-26 22:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x4bcd23…
10-26 22:12:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xcd3bd5…
10-26 21:17:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x817662…
10-26 21:09:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xf69b11…
10-26 20:46:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x01d4c5…
10-26 20:29:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0xed3447…
10-26 20:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd629f7…
10-26 20:23:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xe1619f…
10-26 20:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	3	90¢	$2	0xd3eb53…
10-26 20:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0x33d4b0…
10-26 20:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x85144a…
10-26 20:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0x2fea37…
10-26 20:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	21	50¢	$10	0x3ee912…
10-26 19:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x487ed4…
10-26 19:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xdd092d…
10-26 19:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	21	45¢	$9	0xa21a92…
10-26 19:53:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xe040c6…
10-26 19:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xefe6f1…
10-26 19:48:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	21	94¢	$20	0xe9830d…
10-26 19:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x238bd3…
10-26 19:39:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xe7d942…
10-26 19:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x492d76…
10-26 19:38:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xf47c03…
10-26 19:37:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0xbbcde1…
10-26 19:36:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	21	90¢	$19	0xa15e4e…
10-26 19:34:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x25aa3e…
10-26 19:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xe2c42e…
10-26 19:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	SELL	17	90¢	$15	0x82b6f3…
10-26 19:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	17	50¢	$8	0x6993da…
10-26 19:25:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x00a933…
10-26 19:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xb4fbf8…
10-26 19:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xd9ec9b…
10-26 19:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0x855f31…
10-26 19:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x09ead3…
10-26 19:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	SELL	4	90¢	$3	0x074931…