Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$530

Unrealized P&L

-$68

Hit rate

45.6%

Resolved (90d)

551

Trades (90d)

12,542

12,542 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$36.6K

$36.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$744

10 positions

First seen

2026-09-26

last 10-28 18:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

92% 56% -$530

Tech

4% — —

Other

3% — —

Politics

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 6559 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+198	$136	90¢	$177	+$41	10-16 16:52
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+200	$152	68¢	$135	-$17	10-25 23:22
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	+100	$75	73¢	$73	-$2	10-21 19:19
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	+100	$65	70¢	$71	+$6	10-20 03:41
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	+200	$84	30¢	$59	-$25	10-20 03:41
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	+100	$79	52¢	$52	-$26	10-28 18:00
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	+100	$14	48¢	$48	+$33	10-25 03:24
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+448	$135	11¢	$47	-$88	10-19 14:35
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$32	42¢	$42	+$10	10-25 08:20
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	+150	$39	27¢	$40	+$2	10-21 19:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	7	$808	800	800	+0	open	—	10-17 07:33
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	27	$585	968	323	+646	open	—	10-19 14:35
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	10	$492	615	315	+300	open	—	10-20 03:41
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	19	$461	550	300	+250	open	—	10-21 19:19
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	14	$460	517	317	+200	open	—	10-28 18:00
bitcoin up or down september 28 2026 8pm et	178	$433	842	0	+842	Down	-$26	09-29 00:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 9PM ET	168	$410	808	0	+808	Down	-$4	09-29 01:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 10PM ET	172	$406	820	0	+820	Down	+$14	09-29 02:52
bitcoin up or down september 28 2026 7pm et	164	$400	782	0	+782	Down	+$0	09-28 23:55
bitcoin up or down september 28 2026 6pm et	111	$267	522	0	+522	Up	-$1	09-28 22:40
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 07:25 UTC	66	$256	278	125	+153	Down	-$8	10-01 07:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	103	$255	455	0	+455	Down	-$13	09-28 19:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 01:05 UTC	106	$241	476	0	+476	Up	$0	09-30 01:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 16:50 UTC	99	$233	443	0	+443	Up	-$10	09-28 16:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	100	$231	454	0	+454	Down	+$8	09-30 01:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 16:30 UTC	102	$222	415	0	+415	Down	-$2	09-28 16:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 12:25 UTC	101	$218	430	0	+430	Down	+$4	09-29 12:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 21:40 UTC	102	$216	430	0	+430	Down	+$9	09-28 21:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	101	$216	440	0	+440	Down	$0	09-28 19:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	97	$208	421	0	+421	Up	+$9	09-28 19:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 06:05 UTC	91	$204	400	0	+400	Up	-$10	09-29 06:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	83	$204	372	0	+372	Up	-$14	09-28 20:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 13:30 UTC	6	$200	200	0	+200	Up	+$0	09-30 13:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 16:35 UTC	5	$200	200	0	+200	Down	+$0	09-30 16:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 12:30 UTC	2	$200	200	0	+200	Up	+$0	09-30 12:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 07:15 UTC	1	$200	200	0	+200	Up	+$0	09-30 07:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 12:05 UTC	3	$200	200	0	+200	Down	+$0	09-30 12:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 12:10 UTC	2	$200	200	0	+200	Up	+$0	09-30 12:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 13:35 UTC	2	$200	200	0	+200	Down	+$0	09-30 13:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	88	$196	385	0	+385	Up	-$16	09-28 19:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 18:00:14	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xc095ba…
10-25 23:22:00	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0x836b00…
10-25 08:20:32	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	32¢	$9	0xe62a50…
10-25 03:24:12	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	BUY	68	17¢	$12	0x2186a3…
10-24 22:50:47	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	32¢	$13	0x4ea065…
10-24 22:50:45	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	32¢	$11	0x02a027…
10-24 17:30:48	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x6d46f5…
10-24 11:52:20	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	BUY	22	17¢	$4	0xd70ebf…
10-24 10:51:08	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x26f179…
10-23 17:19:02	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0xd70fd9…
10-23 17:16:48	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x0d2e86…
10-22 15:01:14	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	SELL	92	72¢	$66	0x78abda…
10-22 15:01:02	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0xd37277…
10-22 10:39:54	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x27699b…
10-21 19:19:26	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x08a800…
10-21 19:19:26	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x08a800…
10-21 09:18:18	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	100	37¢	$37	0x0f2e67…
10-21 09:18:00	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x8e8409…
10-21 09:15:23	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	17	43¢	$7	0xa79e0c…
10-21 09:11:21	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0xa268b9…
10-21 08:53:05	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	100	67¢	$67	0x7bee70…
10-21 08:49:27	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x76f01f…
10-20 21:14:03	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xf63c98…
10-20 20:25:41	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	SELL	34	25¢	$8	0xdf2b04…
10-20 20:25:41	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x6bd020…
10-20 20:25:41	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	SELL	16	25¢	$4	0x52a0c8…
10-20 20:14:27	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x2e586c…
10-20 15:04:45	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0x0b9409…
10-20 11:21:44	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x2e72ab…
10-20 03:41:23	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x286e66…
10-20 03:41:23	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x286e66…
10-19 19:01:32	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x6aaf27…
10-19 18:25:23	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x991ab9…
10-19 18:25:23	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x991ab9…
10-19 18:24:41	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0xcd69fe…
10-19 18:15:06	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x5c4611…
10-19 14:35:17	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x091e75…
10-18 23:54:32	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xfe4cf0…
10-18 16:15:50	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xbe1d18…
10-17 10:17:47	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x7f3b0a…
10-17 07:33:56	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	400	52¢	$208	0x133e50…
10-17 01:56:15	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0x5ef79f…
10-17 01:38:05	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x5e2ba2…
10-16 23:17:57	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	200	45¢	$90	0x5ab81e…
10-16 22:04:17	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	55¢	$110	0xc829ab…
10-16 22:04:17	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	200	44¢	$88	0xc829ab…
10-16 17:15:44	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0xb17977…
10-16 16:52:03	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x4dfe5e…
10-16 16:52:03	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	62¢	$31	0x4dfe5e…
10-16 16:25:07	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	38¢	$11	0xbd5237…
10-16 16:25:07	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0xbd5237…
10-16 16:23:37	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0xbfcc00…
10-16 16:23:03	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	63¢	$30	0x24eed7…
10-16 15:51:21	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xaa96a8…
10-16 15:50:48	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x9dcbb2…
10-16 06:15:18	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0xa52332…
10-16 01:39:28	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	115	63¢	$72	0x6c377d…
10-16 01:39:28	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x3a0eae…
10-16 00:54:06	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	27¢	$7	0xb755c1…
10-15 23:38:55	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x32b214…
10-15 21:10:57	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x7a2f68…
10-15 21:02:53	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x762fb4…
10-15 16:22:49	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	43	25¢	$11	0xbc319a…
10-15 12:59:32	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	24¢	$10	0xd8d041…
10-15 12:59:32	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0xd8d041…
10-15 12:39:01	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x88c9c4…
10-15 05:36:28	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	27¢	$14	0xecf8ec…
10-15 03:32:11	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x6495ff…
10-15 02:55:35	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0xc6ef6d…
10-14 22:45:09	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x55c449…
10-14 21:24:18	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x35a5ee…
10-14 17:59:43	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xfa8845…
10-14 15:04:54	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xaab50a…
10-13 15:23:02	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	SELL	23	72¢	$16	0xb5401b…
10-13 15:23:02	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	SELL	26	72¢	$19	0x8ac14d…
10-13 15:23:02	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x1d8d90…
10-13 15:23:01	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x6cf213…
10-13 15:21:50	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x0ce967…
10-13 04:56:53	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x5ae458…
10-13 04:15:08	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0x817d78…
10-13 04:15:08	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x817d78…
10-12 21:22:35	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0xedcfe8…
10-12 20:46:33	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0xfd0908…
10-12 20:01:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x4d7488…
10-12 20:01:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$3	0xbf1d05…
10-12 20:01:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	15	50¢	$8	0x7e7a78…
10-12 20:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	SELL	15	54¢	$8	0x52d085…
10-12 20:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x6e7542…
10-12 20:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x21752c…
10-12 19:57:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x875fd0…
10-12 19:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x2f99d9…
10-12 19:56:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x8f48fe…
10-12 19:56:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x6aaf57…
10-12 19:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0xe2c84d…
10-12 19:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	15	87¢	$13	0x1150cc…
10-12 19:55:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0xaf2b9d…
10-12 19:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	14	51¢	$7	0x690faf…
10-12 19:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	51¢	$0	0x41677d…
10-12 19:55:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xd0d67b…
10-12 19:55:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xc9a4fa…