Knotty-Experimentation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,376

lifetime

Volume

$18.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 05-18 01:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

42% — —

Other

26% — —

Politics

17% 0% $-10

Sports

12% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 141 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	6	$624	1,000	200	+800	open	—	02-19 09:44
will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1 867	25	$580	2,012	1,600	+412	open	—	01-30 16:40
bitcoin up or down february 8 1pm et	40	$448	400	400	+0	open	—	02-08 18:29
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	18	$416	11,023	4,974	+6,048	open	—	02-03 20:03
will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	8	$378	272	272	+0	open	—	04-03 13:11
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	24	$376	7,010	1,410	+5,600	open	—	04-10 00:28
will kanye release bully by march 27	18	$367	630	630	+0	open	—	03-27 10:39
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	10	$309	4,557	4,557	+0	open	—	04-07 20:12
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	12	$275	2,921	297	+2,624	open	—	02-02 14:20
bitcoin above 88k on january 26	4	$269	333	333	+0	open	—	01-26 16:25
will kenneth walker iii win the super bowl lx mvp	6	$248	247	125	+122	open	—	02-09 03:14
will mrbeast hit 116 billion views by march 31	8	$246	361	361	+0	open	—	03-29 16:02
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	9	$232	1,488	0	+1,488	open	—	04-11 03:21
btc updown 15m 1770595200	4	$227	267	42	+225	open	—	02-09 00:12
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	2	$223	133	133	+0	open	—	02-11 22:26
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 75m and 100m views in its first 7 days	4	$216	318	0	+318	open	—	02-11 23:20
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$200	171	171	+0	open	—	02-06 13:59
will progressive run an ad during super bowl lx	1	$200	232	0	+232	open	—	02-09 02:09
italy nordio reform referendum passes	10	$194	219	219	+0	open	—	03-23 11:39
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	8	$194	313	313	+0	open	—	02-04 22:57
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	9	$175	158	158	+0	open	—	03-26 16:42
will bruno mars have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	2	$170	119	119	+0	open	—	02-18 01:31
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by April 30?	3	$164	109	109	+0	open	—	04-04 16:53
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	7	$161	398	398	+0	open	—	04-04 14:56
btc updown 15m 1770594300	7	$157	174	172	+2	open	—	02-08 23:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	11	$156	244	224	+20	open	—	04-23 03:59
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	6	$153	665	665	+0	open	—	04-09 23:53
will turnout in the 2025 honduran general election be between 60 and 65	11	$149	169	169	+0	open	—	02-05 17:19
bitcoin up or down february 8 9am et	9	$147	300	0	+300	open	—	02-08 13:49
bitcoin up or down february 8 10am et	5	$147	300	0	+300	open	—	02-08 15:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 01:06:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x7326c3…
05-18 01:04:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	SELL	48	5¢	$2	0xe0d9d0…
05-18 01:04:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf7e977…
05-18 00:59:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x1d09c8…
05-18 00:57:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x2726ea…
05-18 00:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x0c9914…
05-18 00:56:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	16	50¢	$8	0x2f31af…
05-18 00:56:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x8c0de8…
05-18 00:52:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x73e02e…
05-08 19:35:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	33¢	$6	0xdb7e15…
05-04 09:48:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xe2441a…
05-01 18:22:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x6b78e2…
05-01 18:19:06	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0xb2280d…
05-01 18:18:52	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	224	3¢	$7	0xc54465…
05-01 18:18:52	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	71	22¢	$16	0x259eb0…
05-01 17:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x7d3ff4…
04-26 12:09:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xeecf5f…
04-26 12:09:12	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 26?	Yes	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0x2d1887…
04-26 11:23:54	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x62ed80…
04-25 03:29:50	highest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 23c	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x928bb7…
04-24 09:49:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x5c39a7…
04-23 11:21:00	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	68¢	$9	0xe7bc7c…
04-23 11:14:34	highest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 23c	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x3734d8…
04-23 11:13:42	Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	SELL	56	13¢	$7	0x5d449e…
04-23 03:59:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xf0caba…
04-23 03:58:18	highest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 27c	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0x09c821…
04-22 23:01:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x89faf3…
04-22 22:56:02	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	76	12¢	$9	0x993567…
04-22 22:55:12	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	61	13¢	$8	0xe764d2…
04-22 22:54:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0x017428…
04-22 22:54:20	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x9bea30…
04-22 22:49:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x93764c…
04-22 14:39:18	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xb86409…
04-22 14:38:52	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	95	3¢	$3	0x632a33…
04-22 14:38:30	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0x7ac1cf…
04-22 13:01:24	highest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 27c	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xfe3a4b…
04-22 13:00:24	highest temperature in hong kong on april 22 2026 29c	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xf99b47…
04-21 23:59:16	highest temperature in hong kong on april 22 2026 29c	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x38bb8f…
04-21 23:29:10	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	129	3¢	$4	0xe823a5…
04-21 23:05:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xcfd2e8…
04-21 22:49:42	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	97	4¢	$4	0xa70c3f…
04-21 22:49:02	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x7cb30e…
04-21 22:47:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xebedbd…
04-21 22:41:52	Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x28c4c5…
04-11 04:20:15	btc updown 5m 1775881200	Up	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xbfcc53…
04-11 04:19:29	btc updown 5m 1775880900	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0xcdecdb…
04-11 03:21:45	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	369	3¢	$11	0xde2cf0…
04-11 03:14:03	will trump say six seven this week april 12	Yes	BUY	105	10¢	$10	0xf94959…
04-11 03:11:47	Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	No	BUY	241	4¢	$10	0x06acb9…
04-11 03:09:09	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	156	3¢	$5	0x4e6909…
04-11 03:07:31	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	475	3¢	$14	0xf3aa0d…
04-10 13:41:43	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x1d0ae7…
04-10 11:31:41	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x3ba4b5…
04-10 11:31:27	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 15 2026	Yes	SELL	38	12¢	$5	0x6088c6…
04-10 11:31:25	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	Yes	SELL	71	7¢	$5	0x16af07…
04-10 11:31:21	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 10 2026	Yes	SELL	136	2¢	$2	0x396d51…
04-10 00:28:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x2e584d…
04-10 00:28:37	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x9b321b…
04-10 00:28:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa09929…
04-10 00:04:41	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	124	45¢	$55	0xb72343…
04-09 23:59:41	btc updown 5m 1775778900	Up	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x73cd55…
04-09 23:58:35	btc updown 5m 1775778900	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xbec99a…
04-09 23:57:09	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	69	44¢	$30	0x210b4e…
04-09 23:56:41	israel military action against yemen by april 15 2026	No	SELL	16	90¢	$14	0x038e60…
04-09 23:55:27	will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 5pt5 and 6pt0	Yes	SELL	72	3¢	$2	0xc1fd81…
04-09 23:55:09	will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 4pt0 and 4pt5	Yes	SELL	411	1¢	$3	0xa90faf…
04-09 23:54:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	37	23¢	$9	0xfaf42e…
04-09 23:53:31	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	102	44¢	$45	0x43a15d…
04-09 23:53:13	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	421	11¢	$45	0x99fdb8…
04-09 23:51:45	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	138	43¢	$60	0x1ace68…
04-09 23:36:21	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb26ba8…
04-09 23:33:53	will jon rahm win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	140	0¢	$0	0x10d88f…
04-09 23:33:47	will bryson dechambeau win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	130	1¢	$1	0x6bb55a…
04-09 23:33:39	will scottie scheffler win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	210	17¢	$36	0x891dc7…
04-09 21:32:49	btc updown 5m 1775770200	Up	SELL	18	62¢	$11	0x3056a6…
04-09 21:31:59	btc updown 5m 1775770200	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x178b6d…
04-09 21:31:11	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	167	14¢	$23	0x8271ed…
04-09 21:25:19	btc updown 5m 1775769900	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xc8713d…
04-09 16:29:37	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 15 2026	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xfab977…
04-09 16:29:31	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x6c1e5c…
04-09 16:29:29	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 10 2026	Yes	BUY	136	4¢	$5	0xaa4421…
04-09 15:58:31	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	45¢	$14	0x00be1a…
04-09 12:31:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0x77317e…
04-09 12:23:31	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x1e6fc9…
04-09 12:23:27	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	14	67¢	$9	0xe48e86…
04-09 11:50:55	will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 5pt5 and 6pt0	Yes	BUY	72	7¢	$5	0x490d2e…
04-09 11:50:49	will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 4pt0 and 4pt5	Yes	BUY	411	2¢	$10	0x3fe23a…
04-09 08:33:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xabd201…
04-09 08:31:57	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x077575…
04-08 15:48:49	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	600	0¢	$3	0xc43a99…
04-08 09:37:17	will bryson dechambeau win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	130	7¢	$9	0x7d87c7…
04-08 09:36:57	will jon rahm win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	140	8¢	$11	0xe4bdf0…
04-08 09:33:29	will scottie scheffler win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	210	14¢	$29	0x0ca3e7…
04-07 23:32:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	51	65¢	$33	0x102edc…
04-07 23:10:39	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	196	9¢	$18	0xd43526…
04-07 23:10:37	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	99	9¢	$9	0x45ae28…
04-07 23:10:37	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x21be40…
04-07 23:10:35	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	185	9¢	$17	0x0b0581…
04-07 23:09:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0xc0f315…
04-07 23:08:21	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	276	17¢	$48	0x1b3984…