Messy-Vellum — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

50.3%

Resolved

Trades

937

lifetime

Volume

$48.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$52

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 07-14 06:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 61% $-21

Other

7% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	5	$2.4K	2,206	2,206	+0	open	—	02-18 15:33
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?	7	$1.3K	1,163	1,163	+0	open	—	02-23 12:22
crint lka gbr 2026 02 22	2	$1.2K	592	592	+0	open	—	02-22 12:39
btc updown 5m 1771150500	3	$1.1K	1,589	697	+892	open	—	02-15 10:19
btc updown 5m 1771242300	2	$908	966	0	+966	open	—	02-16 11:49
btc updown 5m 1771074300	1	$800	1,286	0	+1,286	open	—	02-14 13:05
btc updown 5m 1770977400	1	$800	1,358	0	+1,358	open	—	02-13 10:10
btc updown 5m 1770981300	1	$800	1,124	0	+1,124	open	—	02-13 11:15
Over $1M committed to the Foresee public sale?	1	$788	951	0	+951	open	—	02-08 12:46
btc updown 5m 1771144800	1	$718	1,025	0	+1,025	open	—	02-15 08:43
crint ind zaf 2026 02 22	2	$620	913	0	+913	open	—	02-22 15:46
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	1	$606	1,103	0	+1,103	open	—	02-07 07:29
btc updown 5m 1771135500	1	$600	953	0	+953	open	—	02-15 06:05
btc updown 5m 1771248300	1	$600	1,466	0	+1,466	open	—	02-16 13:25
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$586	994	994	+0	open	—	02-02 13:27
btc updown 5m 1771135200	3	$471	710	699	+11	open	—	02-15 06:04
btc updown 5m 1770981000	1	$450	767	0	+767	open	—	02-13 11:10
btc updown 5m 1771144500	1	$450	957	0	+957	open	—	02-15 08:35
btc updown 15m 1771386300	1	$439	532	0	+532	open	—	02-18 03:57
btc updown 5m 1771223100	1	$417	859	0	+859	open	—	02-16 06:25
btc updown 5m 1770963900	1	$400	737	0	+737	open	—	02-13 06:25
btc updown 5m 1771129800	1	$400	784	0	+784	open	—	02-15 04:30
btc updown 5m 1771131900	1	$400	787	0	+787	open	—	02-15 05:05
btc updown 5m 1770977100	1	$400	730	0	+730	open	—	02-13 10:05
btc updown 5m 1771074000	1	$400	741	0	+741	open	—	02-14 13:00
btc updown 5m 1771041000	1	$400	924	0	+924	open	—	02-14 03:50
btc updown 5m 1771134600	3	$321	450	221	+228	open	—	02-15 05:51
btc updown 5m 1771326000	1	$303	505	0	+505	open	—	02-17 11:00
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$287	273	273	+0	No	$-8	02-10 12:52
Superform FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$266	159	159	+0	open	—	02-10 17:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 06:13:49	btc updown 5m 1784009400	Up	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x81ec90…
07-13 11:47:49	crint wst2 nzl7 2026 07 13	New Zealand	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0x4de1b1…
07-10 14:18:38	btc updown 5m 1783692900	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$1	0xd29b7f…
07-10 14:14:20	btc updown 5m 1783692600	Down	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x760e1b…
07-10 14:11:44	btc updown 5m 1783692600	Down	BUY	14	79¢	$11	0x62afca…
07-10 14:09:23	btc updown 5m 1783692300	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xc94578…
07-10 14:08:11	btc updown 5m 1783692300	Down	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x246971…
07-10 13:52:55	btc updown 5m 1783691400	Up	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0xafa0cd…
07-10 13:52:26	btc updown 5m 1783691400	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xa71b05…
07-10 13:44:08	btc updown 5m 1783690800	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x6ed173…
07-10 13:43:14	btc updown 5m 1783690800	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x66600f…
07-10 13:39:53	btc updown 5m 1783690500	Up	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x44d49a…
07-10 13:39:08	btc updown 5m 1783690500	Up	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0xef9eaa…
07-10 13:14:13	btc updown 5m 1783689000	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x7cbc1b…
07-10 13:13:58	btc updown 5m 1783689000	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x504e48…
07-10 13:04:37	btc updown 5m 1783688400	Down	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x657a4f…
07-10 12:49:56	btc updown 5m 1783687500	Down	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x46e4e6…
07-10 12:41:58	bitcoin above 64600 on july 10 2026 9am et	No	SELL	9	95¢	$8	0xc471b5…
07-10 12:34:43	bitcoin above 64600 on july 10 2026 9am et	No	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0x7058f1…
07-10 12:25:31	btc updown 5m 1783686000	Up	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xceb643…
07-10 12:24:56	btc updown 5m 1783686000	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x628018…
07-10 12:17:58	btc updown 5m 1783685700	Down	SELL	8	96¢	$7	0xbbefcf…
07-10 12:15:49	btc updown 5m 1783685700	Down	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0xa635e6…
07-10 09:14:28	btc updown 5m 1783674600	Down	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x384bc6…
07-10 09:13:59	btc updown 5m 1783674600	Down	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x040f02…
07-10 09:04:59	btc updown 5m 1783674000	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xb4307d…
07-10 09:02:19	btc updown 5m 1783674000	Down	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0xea0f3c…
07-10 08:52:58	btc updown 5m 1783673400	Down	SELL	7	95¢	$6	0x32cc59…
07-10 08:52:16	btc updown 5m 1783673400	Down	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0xdd126a…
07-10 08:36:44	btc updown 5m 1783672500	Down	SELL	7	95¢	$6	0xaedcea…
07-10 08:36:32	btc updown 5m 1783672500	Down	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0xc58b2c…
07-09 12:56:55	bitcoin up or down on july 9 2026	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xd46a71…
07-09 12:47:32	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	SELL	26	21¢	$6	0x51e85c…
07-09 12:42:58	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	26	24¢	$6	0x85b814…
06-03 16:09:13	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x5cbe5f…
06-03 16:09:00	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x449c5f…
06-03 16:08:40	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x99fec9…
06-03 16:08:30	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xb66558…
06-03 16:08:06	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0xb89219…
06-03 16:07:55	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xe3fe7c…
06-03 16:07:34	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x036260…
06-03 16:07:22	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xd92da1…
06-03 16:07:01	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x3010f6…
06-03 16:06:46	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xcb942f…
06-03 16:06:12	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x1af1d1…
06-03 16:06:01	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x004e57…
06-03 16:05:40	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x38f93e…
06-03 16:05:27	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x54d81e…
06-03 16:04:55	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x5543a2…
06-03 16:04:42	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xbb1af5…
06-03 16:04:18	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0xdb6ddd…
06-03 16:03:40	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x3f567b…
06-03 16:00:58	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	SELL	4	96¢	$3	0xea0974…
06-03 16:00:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	4	97¢	$3	0x7fd9ea…
06-03 16:00:25	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x0c13b5…
06-03 16:00:09	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xd7d30f…
06-03 15:59:45	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x4e0cd3…
06-03 15:59:31	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xcfe88b…
06-02 12:45:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x2c8a75…
06-02 12:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x11ed4a…
06-02 11:54:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xd9569c…
06-02 11:52:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x97d0c6…
05-31 13:30:22	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd1cef6…
05-22 10:36:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0x53a6ed…
05-22 10:25:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0x75b968…
05-22 10:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xdd295e…
05-22 10:21:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x4905f1…
05-22 10:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6d40d7…
05-22 10:16:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x7de872…
05-22 10:05:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x4d3726…
05-22 10:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xec5ef7…
05-22 09:53:24	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x42f1ef…
05-22 09:52:25	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x7bee44…
05-16 10:53:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x74a8e6…
05-16 10:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xab5a83…
05-16 10:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x2ffd40…
05-16 10:46:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xc610f3…
05-16 10:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x60e2b0…
05-16 10:44:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xcb0929…
05-16 10:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x0da946…
05-16 10:42:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x05401b…
05-16 09:43:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x363235…
05-16 09:41:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	62¢	$2	0x80c813…
05-16 09:40:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xf57c34…
05-16 09:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x461ea1…
05-16 09:38:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xb0a6d9…
05-16 09:37:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x262ab8…
05-16 09:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x590348…
05-16 09:16:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x8c8245…
05-16 09:15:16	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	Yes	SELL	144	1¢	$1	0x623b5c…
05-16 09:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x9e387d…
05-16 09:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x98f858…
05-16 09:12:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0x90926d…
05-16 09:11:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x7d8458…
05-16 09:10:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	4	64¢	$3	0x46faf4…
05-16 09:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x9a15a1…
05-16 09:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	47¢	$3	0xf686cc…
05-16 09:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xcd4912…
05-16 09:02:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x6e4840…
05-16 08:59:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xbcedf0…