Early-Biopsy — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.7%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

219

989 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$285

$1.63K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 10-04 05:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 65% -$21

Politics

3% 62% -$5

Other

1% 80% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 06:35 UTC	3	$67	38	34	+3	Down	+$1	03-14 06:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 06:20 UTC	8	$67	40	40	+0	Down	+$7	03-14 06:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 06:30 UTC	4	$65	35	35	+0	Down	+$3	03-14 06:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 06:10 UTC	4	$47	31	25	+6	Down	+$2	03-14 06:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 06:50 UTC	3	$32	50	2	+48	Down	-$27	03-14 06:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1AM ET	19	$25	35	35	+0	Down	+$3	05-18 05:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12AM ET	15	$24	39	39	+0	Up	+$4	05-18 04:50
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22?	12	$22	22	22	+0	Down	+$0	05-22 15:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9PM ET	18	$21	225	118	+107	Down	-$6	05-19 01:46
bitcoin up or down january 20 3am et	9	$20	14	14	+0	Down	+$1	01-20 09:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 06:00 UTC	4	$19	14	14	+0	Down	+$5	03-14 06:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 03:10 UTC	5	$18	62	20	+42	Down	-$5	03-18 03:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 04:00 UTC	4	$16	22	22	+0	Up	+$10	03-17 04:04
bitcoin up or down january 20 2am et	10	$15	22	22	+0	Up	$0	01-20 08:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 07:45 UTC	6	$15	11	11	+0	Down	+$3	03-14 07:50
ethereum up or down january 20 7pm et	4	$13	9	9	+0	Up	+$0	01-21 00:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 03:50 UTC	6	$13	37	37	+0	Up	+$5	03-17 03:54
bitcoin up or down january 16 4am et	2	$12	6	6	+0	Down	+$0	01-16 10:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	9	$12	28	26	+1	Down	+$0	05-19 00:56
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-21 03:00 UTC	2	$12	6	6	+0	Up	+$0	01-21 03:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-21 02:15 UTC	2	$12	6	6	+0	Down	+$0	01-21 02:30
bitcoin up or down january 16 6pm et	2	$12	6	6	+0	Up	+$0	01-17 00:33
bitcoin up or down january 16 7am et	2	$11	5	5	+0	Up	+$0	01-16 13:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET	6	$11	19	19	+0	Up	+$5	05-20 01:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 07:50 UTC	5	$10	15	5	+10	Down	-$6	03-14 07:53
bitcoin up or down january 15 6am et	11	$10	9	11	-2	Down	+$0	01-15 11:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 07:40 UTC	5	$10	9	9	+0	Down	+$0	03-14 07:44
odds trump acquires greenland before 2027 hit 30 by march 31 645	3	$10	17	17	+0	No	$0	01-20 01:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 04:50 UTC	5	$10	8	6	+2	Down	+$2	03-15 04:55
xrp up or down january 19 10pm et	2	$9	5	5	+0	Down	+$0	01-20 04:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 05:51:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:50 UTC	Down	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0x260e02…
10-04 05:49:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x3701c0…
10-04 05:47:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x3a6292…
10-04 05:45:49	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:45 UTC	Down	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xca84c5…
10-04 05:45:32	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xdb99ae…
10-04 05:45:02	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:45 UTC	Down	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x2de9c5…
10-04 05:44:38	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x0017fd…
10-04 05:42:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:40 UTC	Down	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x909a79…
10-04 05:42:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x668758…
10-04 05:40:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:40 UTC	Up	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0xbacc4c…
10-04 05:39:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xdb607b…
10-04 05:37:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:35 UTC	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x927179…
10-04 05:36:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:35 UTC	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x953bbd…
10-04 05:34:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x47e6f6…
10-04 05:31:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:30 UTC	Up	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x55e67b…
10-04 05:31:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xebeb0b…
10-04 05:31:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x8e22c9…
10-04 05:31:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0x11d21f…
10-04 05:28:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:25 UTC	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xd2fbc2…
10-04 05:23:22	Will Alexandre Leduc win the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x61801c…
10-04 05:23:16	Will Jeff Bezos go to space before 2028?	No	SELL	1	61¢	$1	0x20c0f4…
10-04 05:23:04	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x73133d…
10-04 03:55:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xefe126…
10-04 03:54:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 03:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x745983…
10-04 03:50:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 03:50 UTC	Up	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0xa5055d…
10-04 03:49:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 03:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x3c84dd…
10-04 03:46:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x7adcb1…
10-03 11:05:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x43f3a8…
10-03 10:04:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xdbb6e5…
10-03 09:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x5b3e7b…
10-03 07:21:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x80106e…
10-03 07:12:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x76d966…
10-03 06:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0xeee053…
10-03 06:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xde6f4c…
10-03 06:47:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x594163…
10-03 06:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x985357…
10-03 06:42:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0xa1c137…
10-03 06:40:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x70ad40…
10-03 06:37:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x26d446…
10-03 06:36:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x147dc1…
10-03 06:31:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x91e81c…
10-03 06:30:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x8c6eaf…
10-03 04:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x2bc7c0…
10-03 04:02:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x1f11a4…
10-03 03:56:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x66bc77…
10-02 06:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x3ab9e0…
10-02 06:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x46ef24…
10-02 06:17:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x704bee…
10-02 06:15:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x59f12d…
10-02 06:12:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xe685e9…
10-02 06:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xb008fc…
10-02 06:06:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xcebce6…
10-02 06:05:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xb3cdf1…
10-02 06:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0xbf150e…
10-02 05:55:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xee767d…
10-02 05:55:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x6496d0…
10-02 05:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x36a3a9…
10-02 05:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xa906f7…
10-02 03:52:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x138145…
10-02 03:51:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x5f3bf4…
10-02 03:45:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x090620…
10-02 03:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x2e9689…
10-02 03:45:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0x4e304f…
10-02 03:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x953599…
10-02 03:40:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xd981e9…
10-02 03:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x4a69d3…
10-02 03:35:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xce5d70…
10-02 03:35:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0xc69e18…
10-02 03:30:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x6da330…
10-02 03:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xf1c643…
10-02 03:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	0	33¢	$0	0x529f38…
10-02 03:26:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x50baca…
10-02 03:25:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xbc5285…
10-02 03:21:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x7c5d60…
10-02 03:21:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x95334c…
10-02 03:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x8ecc61…
10-02 03:15:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x5427f4…
10-02 03:15:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x4221af…
10-02 03:11:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x776d87…
10-02 03:11:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x6800df…
10-02 03:07:56	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x2e1c85…
10-02 03:06:35	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x92c8a4…
10-02 03:01:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x94ec4e…
10-02 02:57:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x6d2894…
10-02 02:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xa3e5a1…
10-02 02:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x55a068…
10-02 02:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xb36897…
10-02 02:49:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x3bd9bc…
10-02 02:46:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x1aa6aa…
10-02 02:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xd278af…
10-02 02:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x56cc18…
10-02 02:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x79f58b…
10-02 02:35:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xa7a146…
10-02 02:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x4ecee0…
10-02 02:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x243e81…
10-02 02:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xb4b257…
10-02 02:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x6665c4…
10-02 02:26:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xda6625…
10-02 02:25:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x09b882…
10-02 02:15:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x23c255…