Turbulent-Ikebana — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

84.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$106

Open exposure

$34

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 11-11 10:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Other

60% 94% +$1

Crypto

39% 100% +$5

Politics

1% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Solana reach $180 in November?	No		+28	$28	100¢	$28	$0	11-11 10:47
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 13 to November 20, 2026?	No		+6	$6	100¢	$6	$0	11-11 10:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	3	$654	333	333	+0	No	-$6	02-07 07:58
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$350	350	0	+350	No	+$0	05-11 05:41
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	1	$323	325	0	+325	No	+$2	03-08 05:46
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$280	281	0	+281	No	+$1	01-10 13:41
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	2	$264	152	115	+37	No	+$1	06-02 15:09
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	1	$222	223	0	+223	No	+$1	05-14 16:50
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	2	$211	108	108	+0	No	+$1	02-04 13:27
will bitcoin dip to 56k april 6 12	1	$180	180	0	+180	No	+$0	04-11 08:11
will solana reach 150 in july 2026	1	$175	175	0	+175	No	+$0	07-19 08:26
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	1	$170	171	0	+171	No	+$1	06-02 06:46
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	1	$167	168	0	+168	No	+$1	04-11 08:10
will bitcoin reach 104k january 5 11	1	$152	152	0	+152	No	+$0	01-10 13:40
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	1	$145	145	0	+145	No	+$0	06-23 08:27
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$139	139	0	+139	No	+$0	08-13 10:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	1	$122	123	0	+123	No	+$1	05-14 16:49
cz binance of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	1	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	04-20 02:47
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 100 119	1	$75	75	0	+75	No	+$0	03-13 13:53
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 200 219	2	$75	75	0	+75	No	+$0	03-22 07:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	1	$72	73	0	+73	No	+$1	04-20 02:48
will solana reach 210 in january 2026	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	01-21 12:34
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	02-07 07:59
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	10-14 13:50
will solana dip to 10 in september 2026	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	09-05 11:19
Will Solana reach $180 in November?	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	11-11 10:47
will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	08-13 10:01
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$15	12	12	+0	No	+$3	05-15 10:31
trump out as president by march 31	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	02-04 13:29
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	07-19 08:27
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	07-20 11:14
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	1	$11	12	0	+12	No	+$1	01-10 13:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 10:47:57	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 13 to November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4bc7ce…
11-11 10:47:13	Will Solana reach $180 in November?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x42bf9c…
10-14 13:50:21	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x88585c…
09-18 11:02:39	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x25392f…
09-05 11:19:31	will solana dip to 10 in september 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x0e13fb…
08-13 10:01:57	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x521b4f…
08-13 10:01:24	will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x539dbf…
08-13 10:00:42	Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	139	100¢	$139	0xc21382…
07-20 11:14:46	Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfc353e…
07-19 08:27:24	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x683d75…
07-19 08:26:16	will solana reach 150 in july 2026	No	BUY	175	100¢	$175	0xfa1ce3…
06-23 08:27:29	Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0xe45e2d…
06-02 15:09:13	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	No	SELL	115	99¢	$114	0xba7fdb…
06-02 06:46:17	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$170	0xa7d51d…
06-02 06:45:11	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	No	BUY	152	99¢	$150	0xd68f32…
05-15 10:31:47	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	12	77¢	$9	0x3eff4b…
05-14 16:50:14	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	223	100¢	$222	0x40b6a9…
05-14 16:49:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	123	99¢	$122	0xb7539a…
05-14 16:48:41	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0x0c6f3f…
05-11 05:41:13	Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	350	100¢	$350	0x88b8e4…
04-20 02:48:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0xcc5aa5…
04-20 02:47:06	cz binance of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xf633df…
04-11 08:11:09	will bitcoin dip to 56k april 6 12	No	BUY	180	100¢	$180	0x60e001…
04-11 08:10:39	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	168	100¢	$167	0x8c2758…
03-22 07:37:45	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 200 219	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x1bffe8…
03-22 07:16:27	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 200 219	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x3d1c4e…
03-13 13:53:07	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 100 119	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x573a2f…
03-08 05:46:55	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	325	99¢	$323	0xb1f97b…
02-07 07:59:19	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x759598…
02-07 07:58:19	will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	SELL	333	97¢	$324	0xf844eb…
02-04 13:29:34	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xe3af8d…
02-04 13:29:00	will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5eedcf…
02-04 13:28:30	will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	323	99¢	$320	0x540538…
02-04 13:27:42	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	108	99¢	$106	0x1cc59f…
01-21 12:34:44	will solana reach 210 in january 2026	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa32634…
01-17 03:36:10	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	108	97¢	$105	0xde6f50…
01-10 13:41:34	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	281	100¢	$280	0x25a37e…
01-10 13:40:50	israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x6e05d1…
01-10 13:40:10	will bitcoin reach 104k january 5 11	No	BUY	152	100¢	$152	0xa64fe1…