Phony-Warmup — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$56

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,755

lifetime

Volume

$33.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-07 05:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

59% — —

Other

21% 25% $-23

Politics

17% 100% +$1

Sports

3% 33% $-34

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 148 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	14	$703	408	408	+0	open	—	03-21 20:14
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	20	$677	660	660	+0	open	—	03-22 11:26
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$585	557	557	+0	open	—	01-24 07:13
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	9	$561	541	541	+0	open	—	01-24 07:14
lal cel osa 2026 02 06 cel	3	$499	508	500	+8	open	—	02-06 19:13
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	10	$443	363	363	+0	open	—	01-24 07:13
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$433	613	613	+0	No	+$33	01-19 19:27
btc updown 15m 1771251300	23	$409	535	532	+3	open	—	02-16 14:29
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	10	$394	605	605	+0	open	—	01-24 07:13
lal val rea 2026 02 08 rea	6	$371	329	267	+62	open	—	02-08 19:56
jesus christ return before 2027 odds 5 monday night 12 1 am	6	$368	270	270	+0	open	—	02-07 18:07
btc updown 15m 1771182000	17	$341	314	309	+4	open	—	02-15 19:10
btc updown 15m 1770908400	16	$311	290	261	+30	open	—	02-12 15:09
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$300	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	02-18 19:05
btc updown 15m 1771253100	22	$289	260	257	+3	open	—	02-16 14:57
btc updown 15m 1771183800	10	$286	369	363	+6	open	—	02-15 19:35
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	17	$267	429	348	+81	open	—	03-15 18:32
btc updown 15m 1776171600	34	$266	210	207	+3	open	—	04-14 13:14
will trump say minnesota or minneapolis this week march 29	16	$259	199	199	+0	open	—	03-25 23:21
btc updown 15m 1771526700	8	$256	276	272	+4	open	—	02-19 18:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$252	200	200	+0	open	—	04-06 19:07
btc updown 15m 1770990300	12	$237	219	216	+3	open	—	02-13 13:52
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	4	$233	200	200	+0	open	—	03-21 17:32
btc updown 15m 1771231500	10	$222	223	220	+3	open	—	02-16 08:56
btc updown 15m 1771254900	19	$208	203	136	+67	open	—	02-16 15:29
btc updown 15m 1770997500	14	$199	172	169	+3	open	—	02-13 15:51
btc updown 15m 1772210700	8	$193	167	166	+2	open	—	02-27 16:49
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	5	$192	100	100	+0	open	—	04-26 09:55
btc updown 15m 1772208900	19	$189	177	175	+3	open	—	02-27 16:20
btc updown 15m 1771179300	15	$187	190	188	+2	open	—	02-15 18:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 05:55:19	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0x66d989…
05-30 13:17:34	Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x84ae0c…
05-30 13:02:40	UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alonzo Menifield	SELL	16	31¢	$5	0x24c0ed…
05-30 12:51:58	UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alonzo Menifield	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xbc36d6…
05-30 12:32:22	UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Tallison Teixeira	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x49d40c…
05-29 14:06:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0x34a45b…
05-29 14:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x92e015…
05-29 14:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x72a0cd…
05-29 14:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x58951c…
05-14 10:31:39	Will Trump say "World War II" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x2cf8fc…
05-14 06:42:28	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x3ed700…
05-14 05:50:31	Will Trump say "Gun" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x0cfc06…
05-14 05:47:06	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xa88dca…
05-10 11:46:59	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	SELL	51	4¢	$2	0xe47ec5…
05-06 23:48:43	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	BUY	26	5¢	$1	0x47e92d…
05-06 22:19:37	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xcc7f72…
05-06 22:16:17	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x62d001…
05-06 18:26:17	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xcff4fe…
05-05 21:49:58	Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	34¢	$11	0x3c0b8d…
05-05 18:14:34	Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0x2a2d7b…
05-05 16:43:28	Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x134592…
05-04 12:38:10	Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	50¢	$9	0xbb9fb2…
05-04 12:38:10	Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x62fd3c…
05-04 12:38:08	Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x9f6730…
05-04 09:00:26	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	SELL	87	8¢	$7	0x6b850e…
05-03 16:00:34	Will Lady Gaga be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x4e5ee7…
05-03 15:34:58	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	BUY	87	7¢	$6	0xd01fb8…
05-03 15:03:50	Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?	Yes	SELL	58	11¢	$6	0xd1f875…
05-03 14:41:12	Will Lady Gaga be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	No	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0xd5b96f…
05-03 14:25:22	Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x43155c…
05-03 14:21:42	Will Sabrina Carpenter be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x92d5d0…
05-02 17:55:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x1f8404…
05-02 17:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xec125b…
05-02 17:46:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xf3fe73…
05-02 17:46:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x7f3f21…
05-02 17:43:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	44	33¢	$15	0xf3508b…
05-02 17:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0xdc8fc3…
05-02 17:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0xd00cb7…
05-02 17:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0xbcbef5…
05-02 17:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0x8c3854…
05-02 17:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0x7a6c0e…
05-02 17:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0x6ce73d…
05-02 17:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	11	33¢	$4	0x478684…
05-02 17:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0x39aedd…
05-02 17:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0x3328a2…
05-02 17:41:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x5ee4c5…
05-02 17:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0xc7feae…
05-02 17:34:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	21¢	$4	0xcbfbee…
05-02 17:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	21¢	$1	0x57ce7d…
05-02 17:31:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xd61004…
05-02 17:31:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xb00d08…
05-02 17:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x6f3382…
05-02 17:30:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x092acd…
05-02 17:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	12	89¢	$10	0x2ae09f…
05-02 17:27:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	28	48¢	$14	0x3385a5…
05-02 17:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0xefdde8…
05-02 17:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xd5aa15…
05-02 17:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	76¢	$3	0xd4d49f…
05-02 17:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x940526…
05-02 17:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0x7956c8…
05-02 17:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	8	71¢	$5	0x77a16e…
05-02 17:24:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x9ebe5b…
05-02 17:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0x061398…
05-02 17:08:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	36	86¢	$31	0x3452be…
05-02 17:04:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x7c4357…
05-02 16:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xc6532f…
05-02 16:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0xefada5…
05-02 16:08:10	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	SELL	30	7¢	$2	0x51533a…
05-02 16:06:22	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	SELL	38	7¢	$3	0xe1c69c…
05-02 16:01:36	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	SELL	41	7¢	$3	0xcf982e…
05-02 15:59:20	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	SELL	41	7¢	$3	0x447e8c…
05-02 15:35:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0xa5e5f5…
05-02 15:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x95523b…
05-02 15:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x88bfe7…
05-02 15:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x7f5e07…
05-02 15:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x779b0a…
05-02 15:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x2e1dc8…
05-02 15:34:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x8dc338…
05-02 15:34:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	26¢	$0	0x4471b0…
05-02 15:34:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x25f831…
05-02 15:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xc5b932…
05-02 15:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x7fdf2e…
05-02 15:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x3c4862…
05-02 15:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	40¢	$3	0x127105…
05-02 15:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x07c4c8…
05-02 15:32:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0xd0188d…
05-02 15:32:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xc16bf3…
05-02 15:32:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0xb91095…
05-02 15:32:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x3807bb…
05-02 15:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xac16c5…
05-02 15:20:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	9	91¢	$9	0xd18b24…
05-02 15:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	14	88¢	$13	0xee35c6…
05-02 15:17:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x3c759d…
05-02 15:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0xf7cb18…
05-02 15:10:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	12	36¢	$4	0x264239…
05-02 15:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	12	32¢	$4	0x17836e…
05-02 15:09:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	7	34¢	$3	0xac8437…
05-02 15:09:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x519d45…
05-02 15:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	8	34¢	$3	0x7c3037…
05-02 15:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x4a95cb…