Ideal-Panther — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$858

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

92.1%

Resolved

Trades

234

lifetime

Volume

$185.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$794

Open exposure

$4.45K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-26 16:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Other

66% 92% +$1,147

Politics

25% 89% -$573

Sports

9% 86% +$284

Crypto

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes		+3,465	$3,242	92¢	$3.2K	-$72	10-21 04:00
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes		+1,364	$1,200	94¢	$1.3K	+$82	10-21 05:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	5	$11.4K	7,381	4,244	+3,137	No	+$97	01-30 07:45
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	8	$6.4K	6,021	2,640	+3,381	Yes	+$1,071	10-20 19:28
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	3	$5.3K	4,585	1,120	+3,465	open	—	10-21 04:00
Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	3	$4.6K	2,458	2,458	+0	No	+$246	10-01 14:51
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	3	$4.4K	2,304	2,304	+0	Yes	+$84	02-04 16:13
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	5	$4.4K	3,330	1,355	+1,975	No	+$187	07-23 14:50
no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	3	$4.0K	4,077	0	+4,077	Yes	+$77	01-18 21:30
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	1	$3.8K	3,805	0	+3,805	No	+$5	04-30 18:06
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	4	$3.6K	2,549	1,320	+1,229	No	-$106	09-13 14:22
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	4	$3.4K	3,520	0	+3,520	Yes	+$103	01-23 06:54
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	12	$3.4K	1,804	1,804	+0	No	+$195	06-23 16:04
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	4	$3.1K	1,623	1,623	+0	Yes	+$110	06-10 17:02
will trump meet with machado by january 16 159	5	$3.1K	3,121	0	+3,121	Yes	+$30	01-15 07:56
no change in bank of englands interest rates after february 2026 meeting	1	$3.0K	3,031	0	+3,031	Yes	+$31	01-29 06:49
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$3.0K	3,018	0	+3,018	Yes	+$18	02-05 16:39
will antnio jos seguro win the second round by 2530	2	$3.0K	3,046	0	+3,046	Yes	+$46	02-08 21:04
will khamenei leave iran by friday	3	$3.0K	2,984	0	+2,984	No	+$24	01-08 18:45
Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	4	$2.8K	2,511	450	+2,061	Yes	+$111	05-05 13:05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$2.7K	1,523	1,523	+0	Yes	+$301	09-16 20:02
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	3	$2.7K	2,754	0	+2,754	Yes	+$56	04-29 05:58
another us government shutdown by february 14	4	$2.5K	2,816	2,816	+0	No	-$2,463	02-14 13:03
netanyahu out by march 31 854	3	$2.5K	1,245	1,245	+0	No	+$32	04-01 06:05
will the ecb announce no change at the march 2026 meeting	3	$2.4K	1,547	943	+604	Yes	+$24	03-18 16:10
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?	2	$2.4K	1,224	1,224	+0	No	+$6	10-04 09:14
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	4	$2.4K	1,868	627	+1,241	No	+$43	03-19 15:38
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	3	$2.4K	1,217	1,217	+0	Yes	+$76	06-14 19:45
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	3	$2.3K	2,350	0	+2,350	No	+$50	09-10 14:21
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	2	$2.2K	2,273	0	+2,273	Yes	+$23	08-18 05:40
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	2	$2.2K	2,278	0	+2,278	Yes	+$78	09-19 13:42
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	3	$2.2K	2,340	0	+2,340	Yes	+$140	09-11 12:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 16:43:05	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	568	95¢	$540	0xc9d387…
10-26 16:37:38	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	704	85¢	$600	0x5c1391…
10-23 16:52:12	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	815	86¢	$700	0x79ce00…
10-22 15:16:05	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0x9abed1…
10-22 08:10:26	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	480	83¢	$400	0x075f62…
10-21 09:35:15	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	817	61¢	$500	0x0246d8…
10-21 05:58:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,364	88¢	$1,200	0xd099da…
10-21 04:00:14	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,359	92¢	$1,250	0x2ae197…
10-20 19:29:02	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,319	91¢	$1,200	0x11bf6f…
10-20 19:28:00	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	1,202	100¢	$1,201	0xf7684d…
10-16 20:50:50	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	1,264	79¢	$995	0x79ece2…
10-16 20:50:17	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,120	90¢	$1,008	0xe7ae9e…
10-16 05:46:00	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xea73cb…
10-13 20:20:25	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	1,022	83¢	$850	0x354d37…
10-13 15:48:24	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	604	83¢	$500	0x5eca26…
10-07 10:50:02	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	1,688	59¢	$1,000	0xf081db…
10-07 06:46:30	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	1,438	58¢	$838	0x48f21a…
10-05 18:02:22	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	1,438	70¢	$1,000	0x670f61…
10-04 09:52:19	Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa0ddd7…
10-04 09:50:19	Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?	No	BUY	1,307	99¢	$1,300	0xc92728…
10-04 09:14:16	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?	No	SELL	1,224	98¢	$1,206	0x48cdbf…
10-04 09:12:07	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?	No	BUY	1,224	98¢	$1,200	0xd5041a…
10-03 06:34:26	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the October meeting?	No	BUY	136	92¢	$125	0xa98db9…
10-03 06:13:33	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the October meeting?	No	BUY	1,090	92¢	$1,000	0x815293…
10-02 13:55:26	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	3,226	93¢	$3,000	0xe74992…
10-01 14:51:27	Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	2,458	100¢	$2,446	0xf54010…
09-29 18:01:20	Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	1,073	93¢	$1,000	0xc4e1b4…
09-26 11:26:05	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?	No	BUY	83	97¢	$80	0xdd0e72…
09-26 11:20:38	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?	No	BUY	1,053	95¢	$1,000	0xe532ba…
09-25 15:08:54	Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	1,521	99¢	$1,500	0x7978a4…
09-24 09:05:35	Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	1,386	87¢	$1,200	0xaf6405…
09-21 20:31:21	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,359	95¢	$1,290	0x289cdd…
09-19 13:42:23	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,045	96¢	$1,000	0x05ded0…
09-18 11:21:04	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,233	97¢	$1,200	0x4b9e77…
09-16 20:08:34	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,514	99¢	$1,500	0x10bfa2…
09-16 20:02:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,523	100¢	$1,521	0x93d9f8…
09-15 05:45:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x0b0aa1…
09-14 10:50:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,500	80¢	$1,200	0x2eb7ac…
09-13 14:22:46	Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	No	BUY	72	97¢	$70	0x626be0…
09-13 14:08:55	Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	No	BUY	1,156	95¢	$1,100	0xd71e67…
09-13 13:41:22	Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	No	SELL	1,320	86¢	$1,135	0x6f5bc4…
09-13 13:31:54	Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	No	BUY	1,320	99¢	$1,300	0x42c326…
09-11 12:39:07	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,035	97¢	$1,000	0xd661d7…
09-10 14:21:34	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	306	98¢	$300	0xe651df…
09-10 14:21:12	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	1,021	98¢	$1,000	0x0ddf32…
09-10 14:20:58	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	1,022	98¢	$1,000	0xa48a68…
09-02 04:59:58	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	63	95¢	$60	0x37cf5f…
09-02 04:59:21	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,078	93¢	$1,000	0x67881b…
08-25 03:59:15	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	1,057	95¢	$1,000	0xe51f24…
08-22 04:53:46	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	217	92¢	$200	0x6e04da…
08-22 04:53:19	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,087	92¢	$1,000	0x8670d4…
08-21 12:53:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,389	70¢	$972	0x8c36f4…
08-19 06:52:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,389	72¢	$1,000	0xe1076b…
08-18 05:40:31	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xdece93…
08-18 05:39:45	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	2,222	99¢	$2,200	0x238e35…
08-16 06:50:15	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,149	87¢	$1,000	0xcc6a6f…
08-13 11:24:49	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,149	87¢	$1,000	0xa93eca…
08-05 10:50:26	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	SELL	175	99¢	$173	0xdc4ea3…
08-02 09:04:21	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	175	97¢	$170	0x1c9487…
08-02 08:49:41	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,034	97¢	$1,000	0x0cb5d2…
08-01 11:18:23	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?	Yes	BUY	814	98¢	$800	0x82e98a…
07-28 16:29:25	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,111	90¢	$1,000	0x2d0c87…
07-28 16:28:22	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,004	100¢	$1,003	0x5c958d…
07-26 16:09:09	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,004	98¢	$980	0xeb6337…
07-26 16:08:07	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?	No	SELL	961	100¢	$960	0x8d7a58…
07-26 13:34:27	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?	No	BUY	925	93¢	$860	0x9fdd63…
07-26 13:26:46	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?	No	BUY	36	85¢	$31	0x1bd8bd…
07-26 13:23:45	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	Yes	SELL	915	100¢	$914	0xc99bc4…
07-23 14:56:19	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0xa10181…
07-23 14:55:42	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x56524d…
07-23 14:55:09	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	453	88¢	$400	0x606910…
07-23 14:54:55	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	575	87¢	$500	0x79c8a2…
07-23 14:50:34	Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	No	SELL	255	98¢	$251	0x26d8cc…
07-19 14:32:46	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	Yes	BUY	915	97¢	$890	0xb71d69…
07-13 10:19:40	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	745	98¢	$730	0x48c889…
07-13 09:58:43	Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	770	95¢	$733	0x30c866…
07-06 16:13:58	Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	898	89¢	$799	0x4d3406…
07-05 14:46:41	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?	No	BUY	798	98¢	$780	0xfc1830…
07-05 14:00:37	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	806	97¢	$785	0xdccf6e…
06-24 15:36:10	Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	133	97¢	$129	0x79bac7…
06-23 16:11:55	Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	No	BUY	1,058	94¢	$1,000	0x6ae120…
06-23 16:04:35	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	1,138	99¢	$1,131	0x7425fd…
06-23 16:00:53	Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	637	96¢	$615	0x5cb79e…
06-22 14:35:37	Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	1,315	48¢	$625	0xfe79a5…
06-20 09:19:49	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	806	97¢	$780	0xea6887…
06-20 05:03:26	Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	580	86¢	$500	0x86d5fb…
06-17 17:51:10	Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	735	91¢	$669	0x3bf1d1…
06-17 17:49:19	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	666	99¢	$663	0xe22ffc…
06-16 06:04:57	Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	No	BUY	1,172	94¢	$1,100	0xcf3a01…
06-14 19:46:09	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?	No	BUY	1,289	93¢	$1,200	0x1defac…
06-14 19:45:34	Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	SELL	1,217	100¢	$1,216	0x4a10be…
06-10 17:03:39	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	698	86¢	$600	0xded924…
06-10 17:02:39	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	613	99¢	$606	0x3644d4…
06-10 14:56:57	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	213	93¢	$199	0xe3e640…
06-10 14:54:03	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x57f67d…
06-10 14:53:48	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xfed086…
06-10 14:52:58	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x7f0a46…
06-10 14:52:51	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x09df86…
06-10 14:52:43	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x19496c…
06-10 14:52:19	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xf580cb…