Ornery-Bondsman — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.13K

Unrealized P&L

-$8.97K

Hit rate

84.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,731

lifetime

Volume

$574.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$332

Open exposure

$1.42K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 08-17 12:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Other

94% 76% +$6,556

Politics

6% 17% -$1,765

Tech

1% 100% +$6

Crypto

0% 0% -$667

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+12,308	$10,386	12¢	$1.4K	-$8,970	06-28 20:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	73	$70.1K	39,256	39,256	+0	No	+$2,800	06-23 05:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	150	$55.9K	38,898	26,590	+12,308	open	—	06-28 20:41
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	41	$31.3K	16,037	16,037	+0	No	+$118	07-21 19:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	77	$31.0K	16,206	16,586	-379	No	+$1,476	05-16 11:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	67	$30.2K	21,889	21,889	+0	No	-$1,308	07-23 19:44
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	20	$29.1K	14,863	14,863	+0	No	+$236	06-12 18:33
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	51	$26.2K	13,699	13,699	+0	No	+$60	08-15 13:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	59	$24.8K	18,811	8,894	+9,917	No	+$1,659	05-29 20:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	41	$21.7K	12,844	12,844	+0	No	+$3,817	04-29 15:50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	28	$21.4K	11,499	11,499	+0	No	+$225	05-23 14:52
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	33	$19.8K	10,847	10,847	+0	No	+$888	07-11 11:41
will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	94	$18.2K	11,660	12,156	-497	Yes	+$703	04-14 19:07
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	24	$17.0K	9,893	9,893	+0	No	+$0	07-17 13:30
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	53	$15.0K	12,131	12,131	+0	No	+$3,893	06-28 15:16
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	35	$14.8K	7,617	7,617	+0	No	+$79	06-13 18:06
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	46	$12.0K	11,051	2,000	+9,051	Yes	+$711	07-29 17:00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	7	$9.0K	4,669	4,669	+0	No	-$8	04-18 18:14
will alireza firouzja win the 20252026 speed chess championship	7	$8.0K	4,050	4,050	+0	No	+$48	02-08 22:20
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	14	$7.5K	3,964	3,964	+0	No	+$349	07-04 08:09
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	38	$7.1K	9,522	5,838	+3,684	Yes	-$1,485	04-02 03:23
will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	47	$6.7K	10,502	9,343	+1,159	Yes	-$5,932	07-21 19:29
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 15	4	$6.6K	3,953	3,953	+0	No	+$840	01-11 18:30
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	22	$6.5K	3,313	3,313	+0	No	+$4	06-29 21:07
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026?	33	$6.5K	6,737	0	+6,737	No	+$275	06-05 18:50
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	7	$6.0K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	-$10	06-27 14:00
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026?	57	$4.9K	5,408	1,274	+4,134	Yes	+$191	06-05 18:54
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	7	$4.0K	6,247	200	+6,047	No	+$2,427	01-24 17:35
will fabiano caruana win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	86	$3.9K	4,187	4,187	+0	No	+$805	04-03 14:03
will hikaru nakamura win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	2	$3.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$198	04-05 16:34
kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	8	$3.8K	1,956	1,956	+0	No	+$4	06-12 18:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-17 12:53:51	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	105	64¢	$67	0x5e9c1f…
08-17 12:08:00	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	17	64¢	$11	0xc80891…
08-17 10:28:00	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0xcfcfd6…
08-17 09:17:27	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	278	64¢	$178	0x29b17a…
08-17 08:26:46	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	28	64¢	$18	0x846e62…
08-16 23:10:54	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	249	64¢	$159	0xff5134…
08-16 23:10:54	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x7c4470…
08-16 23:10:54	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	174	64¢	$111	0x75a02d…
08-16 23:10:54	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x613b15…
08-15 14:17:49	Will Magnus Carlsen Win EWC 2026 Chess?	Yes	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x16375e…
08-15 14:00:01	Will Magnus Carlsen Win EWC 2026 Chess?	Yes	BUY	656	91¢	$600	0x666d3e…
08-15 13:24:16	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	629	99¢	$623	0x973055…
08-10 16:56:16	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	618	99¢	$613	0xd488c8…
08-08 14:59:28	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	629	97¢	$613	0xfec67a…
08-06 17:43:44	Will Javokhir Sindarov Win the 2026 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz Tournament	Yes	BUY	172	43¢	$74	0xa1388b…
08-05 15:52:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	765	98¢	$748	0x737400…
08-05 14:17:18	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x38c36d…
08-05 14:06:24	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xc6d590…
08-05 13:59:20	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	134	98¢	$131	0xfad5ad…
08-01 13:24:06	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	Yes	BUY	185	64¢	$118	0x165f2f…
08-01 13:18:36	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	Yes	BUY	28	64¢	$18	0x704ba2…
08-01 13:18:29	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x7f1371…
08-01 13:11:33	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	Yes	BUY	600	64¢	$384	0x7350b3…
08-01 13:08:00	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	Yes	BUY	37	64¢	$24	0xa0877a…
07-30 17:33:42	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	857	95¢	$814	0x946760…
07-30 17:33:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	143	95¢	$136	0xd4da91…
07-30 02:09:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	41	83¢	$34	0x5b6dbb…
07-29 17:00:41	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	92¢	$73	0xb6e6c6…
07-29 16:45:47	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	92¢	$17	0x8c0c57…
07-29 16:45:44	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	95	92¢	$87	0x5d246a…
07-29 16:45:39	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	92¢	$462	0xc49c83…
07-29 16:42:53	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x38cbf5…
07-29 16:30:44	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	92¢	$17	0x1ab4ad…
07-29 16:30:41	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	95	92¢	$87	0x203100…
07-29 16:30:38	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	92¢	$462	0xe8eb2c…
07-29 16:15:45	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	92¢	$17	0x144b5f…
07-29 16:15:41	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	95	92¢	$87	0x904788…
07-29 16:15:38	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	92¢	$462	0x4c780b…
07-29 16:15:36	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	92¢	$58	0xec7313…
07-23 19:44:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	5,199	99¢	$5,142	0x802910…
07-22 01:22:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0xd1a777…
07-21 23:12:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1,399	93¢	$1,301	0xce14bb…
07-21 20:25:31	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	136	73¢	$100	0x76e4bc…
07-21 19:31:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xa7a3fe…
07-21 19:31:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0xd9bea4…
07-21 19:31:39	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0xf7906a…
07-21 19:31:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	608	98¢	$598	0x6dd063…
07-21 19:30:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0xce0a0b…
07-21 19:30:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x57d033…
07-21 19:29:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x8e4432…
07-21 19:29:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0xb6b3d7…
07-21 19:29:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x8b82ac…
07-21 19:29:25	Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,500	4¢	$92	0xc89722…
07-21 19:29:25	Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	551	4¢	$20	0x9ee7ea…
07-21 19:28:40	Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x404d09…
07-21 19:28:04	Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,258	4¢	$84	0x2215bc…
07-21 19:27:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x2912c0…
07-21 19:27:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x28cfe6…
07-21 19:27:21	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x3d44c8…
07-21 19:27:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x3d8d16…
07-21 19:27:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0xb46ee0…
07-21 19:27:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x8d299f…
07-21 19:27:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x15ed8c…
07-21 19:27:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0xe130a4…
07-21 19:27:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0xee5616…
07-21 19:27:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0xd8c17b…
07-21 19:27:06	Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	472	4¢	$17	0x72da03…
07-21 19:27:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0xdc0ac8…
07-21 19:26:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x20d0df…
07-21 19:26:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	3,612	98¢	$3,551	0x2da64a…
07-21 19:25:00	Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,255	1¢	$13	0x38a4c4…
07-21 19:24:58	Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,988	1¢	$20	0xd106d8…
07-21 19:24:58	Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0x4323fa…
07-21 19:24:51	Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	139	4¢	$5	0x9746fc…
07-21 19:24:46	Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	880	4¢	$33	0xcb6625…
07-21 19:24:46	Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	133	4¢	$5	0xc7f249…
07-21 19:24:46	Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,360	4¢	$87	0x856f94…
07-21 19:12:06	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	665	93¢	$618	0xd1b2e6…
07-21 14:19:27	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	136	70¢	$95	0x39aa77…
07-20 20:43:31	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by december 31 2026 20260716215104508	No	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x07dbea…
07-20 17:13:25	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	2,000	98¢	$1,951	0x9917cd…
07-20 17:12:58	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0xc5a6c7…
07-19 09:54:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,070	92¢	$1,904	0x6fc928…
07-19 09:50:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	91	96¢	$87	0x1f3f47…
07-19 09:32:34	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0xe1b9d2…
07-19 09:32:34	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0x3dd14a…
07-19 09:21:01	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xc1a098…
07-19 09:13:09	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	375	92¢	$344	0xcdc277…
07-19 09:08:19	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by december 31 2026 20260716215104508	No	SELL	45	32¢	$14	0x6fd95e…
07-19 07:48:51	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x603127…
07-19 07:48:48	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	244	59¢	$144	0x538ef2…
07-19 07:24:33	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	135	59¢	$80	0x7703dd…
07-19 07:07:21	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	Yes	SELL	466	2¢	$11	0x007297…
07-19 06:43:21	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xca1671…
07-19 06:31:00	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	300	60¢	$180	0xbe41af…
07-19 06:24:22	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xf58e1e…
07-19 06:24:22	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	268	61¢	$163	0xe0d8d0…
07-19 06:24:22	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0xbd4b34…
07-19 01:43:06	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xf7665d…
07-19 00:06:15	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0xcd7467…