Constant-Pub — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$46

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

46.2%

Resolved

122

Trades

213

lifetime

Volume

$810

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-16

last 05-21 06:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 31% $-41

Sports

10% 27% $-5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 91 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?	7	$81	296	296	+0	No	+$1	05-04 14:36
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7?	3	$49	275	275	+0	No	$-5	05-07 10:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	2	$30	20	20	+0	Down	+$10	05-07 09:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	2	$29	20	20	+0	Down	+$9	05-07 09:28
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch?	2	$29	44	42	+2	open	—	04-29 12:18
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8?	1	$22	93	0	+93	No	$-22	05-07 10:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4PM ET	1	$20	50	0	+50	Down	$-20	05-04 20:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	1	$20	41	0	+41	Up	$-20	05-07 09:58
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	2	$20	12	12	+0	Sean Strickland	$-0	05-10 01:03
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	2	$20	24	24	+0	Joshua Van	$-0	05-10 01:00
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$18	29	29	+0	open	—	05-04 12:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	5	$17	20	20	+0	Down	+$4	05-07 08:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	2	$15	10	10	+0	Down	+$5	05-07 08:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	4	$14	20	10	+10	Up	+$4	05-07 08:25
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	3	$14	61	57	+3	open	—	04-29 12:09
Will the fight be won by submission?	1	$11	20	0	+20	No	$-11	05-10 01:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Down	$-10	05-07 09:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Down	$-10	05-07 09:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Down	$-10	05-07 09:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Up	$-10	05-07 09:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Down	+$10	05-07 10:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Up	+$10	05-07 09:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Up	+$10	05-07 09:11
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10AM ET	1	$10	27	0	+27	open	—	05-04 14:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	1	$10	19	0	+19	Down	$-10	05-07 09:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11AM ET	1	$10	24	0	+24	open	—	05-04 15:02
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 12PM ET	1	$10	22	0	+22	open	—	05-04 16:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	1	$10	19	0	+19	Up	+$9	05-07 09:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3PM ET	1	$10	21	0	+21	Down	$-10	05-04 19:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1PM ET	1	$10	24	0	+24	open	—	04-25 17:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 06:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xcc658a…
05-21 06:31:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xa9387a…
05-10 01:33:12	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x449b90…
05-10 01:05:45	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xdb6921…
05-10 01:05:26	UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)	Jim Miller	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x27d102…
05-10 01:04:35	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x228abe…
05-10 01:03:34	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	SELL	12	80¢	$10	0x6a3aed…
05-10 01:00:51	UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	Joshua Van	SELL	24	39¢	$10	0x5ce1bc…
05-10 00:58:59	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xed8897…
05-10 00:55:15	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x07738c…
05-10 00:40:44	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb7a8eb…
05-10 00:36:51	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x4f8394…
05-10 00:33:21	UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims)	Ozzy Diaz	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x3ca3b3…
05-10 00:29:30	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xa50bd9…
05-10 00:04:25	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x9d5d73…
05-09 23:25:23	UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)	Mateusz Rebecki	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xba145b…
05-09 23:06:56	UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)	Jim Miller	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x7d9faa…
05-09 22:02:44	UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x75fdb2…
05-07 10:18:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	93	24¢	$22	0x7dfcea…
05-07 10:16:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7?	Yes	SELL	275	8¢	$22	0x47cb1f…
05-07 10:12:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0xac0ef4…
05-07 10:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x5acdcc…
05-07 09:58:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0xb1abf8…
05-07 09:31:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x42431d…
05-07 09:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xa76cc0…
05-07 09:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x837f5b…
05-07 09:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x6c3759…
05-07 09:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x4863e1…
05-07 09:17:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xf704d9…
05-07 09:17:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x3294a7…
05-07 09:13:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x7f71bb…
05-07 09:12:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x1214b2…
05-07 09:11:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x58d0d4…
05-07 09:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7b7069…
05-07 09:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x7445ff…
05-07 08:59:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x6f58b8…
05-07 08:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xad2e32…
05-07 08:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x55e78f…
05-07 08:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x329521…
05-07 08:41:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x21a496…
05-07 08:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x5fc9a6…
05-07 08:32:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x098958…
05-07 08:27:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x5db0c0…
05-07 08:26:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x245d12…
05-07 08:25:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0xfeb7a0…
05-07 08:25:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x85f7ac…
05-07 08:24:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0xfb30cb…
05-07 08:16:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3afe76…
05-07 08:14:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xe2c230…
05-07 08:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xda9ae6…
05-07 08:12:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xba5b1d…
05-07 08:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xc2c4aa…
05-07 08:10:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x760b39…
05-07 08:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0xff0ca4…
05-07 08:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x29e44a…
05-07 08:08:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x562924…
05-07 08:07:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x5e399e…
05-07 08:07:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x1510a9…
05-07 08:04:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xc0c1f0…
05-07 08:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xac3a9b…
05-07 08:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0x07909a…
05-07 05:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x50df39…
05-07 04:20:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x0e5b4f…
05-07 04:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x30a473…
05-07 04:05:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0x110cda…
05-07 04:04:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x103880…
05-07 03:56:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x595ebb…
05-07 03:56:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0x098e66…
05-07 03:48:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x3cba01…
05-07 03:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x0afe50…
05-07 03:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2fbbdb…
05-07 03:40:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x4cb352…
05-07 03:40:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x1e09e8…
05-07 03:29:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x995cd1…
05-07 03:21:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x8975b2…
05-07 03:21:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x8dc361…
05-07 03:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x76150b…
05-07 03:06:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x892868…
05-07 03:06:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0x0cc6de…
05-07 03:06:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x9f9fff…
05-07 03:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x1bf879…
05-07 02:47:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x89ccb7…
05-07 02:45:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	14	20¢	$3	0xd1c237…
05-07 02:44:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xe7b7a0…
05-07 02:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xf36ac7…
05-07 02:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0xdfd4b1…
05-07 02:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0x856b30…
05-07 02:18:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x8e1baa…
05-07 02:17:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x616786…
05-07 01:18:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xda8d87…
05-07 01:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xc29bc1…
05-07 01:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x9b86f2…
05-07 01:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x97c5d1…
05-07 00:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0x62bdf7…
05-07 00:48:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x601c5d…
05-07 00:48:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xc888f5…
05-07 00:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0x0b6f83…
05-07 00:40:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xdbf4cf…
05-07 00:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x718fcc…
05-07 00:32:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xed7d1a…