Candid-Eggnog — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

90.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.89K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 07-16 07:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

51% 33% $-14

Politics

45% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	2	$855	440	440	+0	open	—	05-08 05:24
Spread: FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (-1.5)	1	$423	455	0	+455	FC UTA Arad	+$32	05-08 05:35
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	4	$124	730	730	+0	open	—	07-01 03:38
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	3	$102	880	880	+0	open	—	07-16 07:59
US military draft authorized in 2026?	5	$93	875	875	+0	open	—	07-16 06:59
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5)	2	$61	1,009	0	+1,009	open	—	05-24 05:14
will russia enter krasnopillya by july 31	4	$60	790	790	+0	open	—	07-01 07:58
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	4	$56	620	620	+0	open	—	06-17 07:54
Spread: ENPPI (-1.5)	2	$39	982	0	+982	open	—	04-27 07:15
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)	2	$27	920	0	+920	RB Leipzig	$-27	05-09 08:15
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	5	$21	850	850	+0	open	—	05-10 04:54
Spread: Hellas Verona FC (-1.5)	2	$19	870	0	+870	Como 1907	$-19	05-10 05:05
bra bot cor 2026 04 12 spread away 2pt5	2	$7	679	0	+679	open	—	04-12 06:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 07:59:58	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	880	6¢	$51	0xb1d5f6…
07-16 07:15:16	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	435	6¢	$25	0x2994b3…
07-16 07:15:04	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	445	6¢	$26	0x9d79a7…
07-16 06:59:16	US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xb41c6d…
07-16 06:59:02	US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x84a1b9…
07-16 06:58:19	US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	SELL	870	5¢	$46	0x78f511…
07-16 05:13:19	US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	BUY	430	5¢	$23	0x36a4f6…
07-16 05:13:07	US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	BUY	440	5¢	$23	0x28e02a…
07-01 07:58:02	will russia enter krasnopillya by july 31	Yes	SELL	390	4¢	$15	0x573a84…
07-01 07:57:52	will russia enter krasnopillya by july 31	Yes	SELL	400	4¢	$16	0x2cb0de…
07-01 06:44:04	will russia enter krasnopillya by july 31	Yes	BUY	410	4¢	$15	0xe735b4…
07-01 06:41:26	will russia enter krasnopillya by july 31	Yes	BUY	380	4¢	$14	0x26b728…
07-01 03:38:41	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	SELL	310	9¢	$28	0x7560c2…
07-01 03:37:43	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	SELL	420	9¢	$38	0xb775a5…
07-01 02:57:44	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	330	8¢	$26	0xdae773…
07-01 02:52:37	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	400	8¢	$32	0x10a101…
06-17 07:54:22	Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	Yes	SELL	305	4¢	$12	0xf6863f…
06-17 07:54:11	Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	Yes	SELL	315	4¢	$13	0xcdad2d…
06-17 06:42:01	Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	Yes	BUY	325	5¢	$16	0xa9b70a…
06-17 06:41:46	Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	Yes	BUY	295	5¢	$15	0x871539…
05-24 05:14:45	Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5)	Qingdao Hainiu FC	BUY	520	6¢	$31	0xbbff94…
05-24 05:14:24	Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5)	Qingdao Hainiu FC	BUY	489	6¢	$29	0xc494cb…
05-10 05:05:56	Spread: Hellas Verona FC (-1.5)	Hellas Verona FC	BUY	440	2¢	$10	0x74e8d3…
05-10 05:05:27	Spread: Hellas Verona FC (-1.5)	Hellas Verona FC	BUY	430	2¢	$9	0xb31fd3…
05-10 04:54:02	Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0x1de4f7…
05-10 04:53:03	Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	406	1¢	$5	0x286c6c…
05-10 04:52:38	Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	420	1¢	$5	0x90f0df…
05-10 03:13:21	Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	430	1¢	$6	0x2278ef…
05-10 03:13:11	Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	420	1¢	$5	0xdf74f6…
05-09 08:15:39	Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)	FC St. Pauli 1910	BUY	450	3¢	$13	0xb1500c…
05-09 08:15:22	Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)	FC St. Pauli 1910	BUY	470	3¢	$14	0x8ca61b…
05-08 05:35:35	Spread: FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (-1.5)	FC UTA Arad	BUY	455	93¢	$423	0x434d8a…
05-08 05:24:37	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	440	97¢	$428	0xa7bf86…
05-08 03:05:52	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	440	97¢	$428	0x7c8987…
04-27 07:15:36	Spread: ENPPI (-1.5)	ENPPI	BUY	508	4¢	$20	0xa0920d…
04-27 07:15:20	Spread: ENPPI (-1.5)	ENPPI	BUY	474	4¢	$19	0x485d96…
04-12 06:31:49	bra bot cor 2026 04 12 spread away 2pt5	Coritiba FBC	BUY	376	1¢	$4	0x7479ea…
04-12 06:30:21	bra bot cor 2026 04 12 spread away 2pt5	Coritiba FBC	BUY	303	1¢	$3	0x52c259…