Authentic-Estuary — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.03K

Unrealized P&L

-$82

Hit rate

57.9%

Resolved

2,158

Trades

46,415

lifetime

Volume

$175.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$206

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-13 10:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 140 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 60% -$1,929

Other

1% 20% -$37

Politics

0% 0% -$391

Sports

0% 36% -$10

Tech

0% 100% +$333

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes		-206	-$124	100¢	$-206	-$82	08-24 05:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 05:45 UTC	428	$1.5K	2,024	1,815	+209	Up	-$113	03-30 05:50
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 6pm et	209	$1.4K	2,449	646	+1,804	Down	-$25	03-26 23:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 17:55 UTC	666	$1.4K	3,294	0	+3,294	Up	+$66	03-30 17:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 03:00 UTC	28	$1.3K	2,353	0	+2,353	Up	-$561	03-15 03:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-27 08:15 UTC	105	$1.3K	1,487	724	+763	Up	-$192	02-27 08:29
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 3pm et	195	$1.2K	1,998	421	+1,577	Up	+$12	03-26 19:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-13 18:15 UTC	112	$1.1K	1,673	0	+1,673	Down	+$38	03-13 18:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-14 00:00 UTC	121	$910	1,820	0	+1,820	Down	+$15	03-14 00:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 03:30 UTC	278	$909	1,828	0	+1,828	Up	+$4	03-02 03:43
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	9	$898	866	866	+0	open	—	10-13 10:28
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 5pm et	220	$892	1,786	59	+1,727	Down	+$34	03-26 21:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 18:30 UTC	370	$875	2,045	0	+2,045	Up	-$39	03-30 18:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 18:25 UTC	435	$875	2,006	0	+2,006	Up	-$192	03-29 18:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 18:45 UTC	388	$828	1,920	0	+1,920	Down	-$10	03-30 18:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 07:00 UTC	185	$815	1,385	0	+1,385	Down	-$200	03-06 07:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-13 05:00 UTC	45	$771	1,616	0	+1,616	Down	+$364	03-13 05:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 01:00 UTC	179	$747	1,391	0	+1,391	Down	+$31	03-06 01:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 05:00 UTC	152	$736	1,273	0	+1,273	Down	+$37	03-06 05:11
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 7pm et	173	$733	1,515	299	+1,216	Down	-$116	03-26 23:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 17:25 UTC	548	$729	3,076	0	+3,076	Down	-$109	03-30 17:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-19 18:30 UTC	70	$725	733	584	+149	Up	-$72	03-19 18:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-09 18:00 UTC	87	$724	1,194	0	+1,194	Down	+$9	03-09 18:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 23:30 UTC	136	$721	952	0	+952	Down	+$126	03-02 23:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 05:15 UTC	134	$719	1,172	0	+1,172	Down	+$13	03-06 05:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 18:30 UTC	225	$696	1,380	0	+1,380	Up	-$1	03-02 18:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-03 02:15 UTC	117	$691	1,189	0	+1,189	Down	+$18	03-03 02:28
bitcoin up or down march 24 2026 12am et	189	$675	1,422	0	+1,422	Down	-$13	03-24 04:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 00:00 UTC	193	$672	1,341	0	+1,341	Down	-$58	03-10 00:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 17:00 UTC	444	$667	2,568	0	+2,568	Down	+$128	03-30 17:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-05 21:45 UTC	87	$642	963	0	+963	Down	+$19	03-05 21:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 10:28:26	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	94¢	$19	0x8683e4…
10-13 10:12:37	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xba7094…
10-13 10:08:46	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	135	94¢	$127	0x58484d…
10-12 19:18:36	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	489	90¢	$440	0x458d35…
10-12 17:07:50	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x3a4417…
10-09 04:56:52	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	132	73¢	$96	0x9e1c88…
10-09 04:46:10	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	73¢	$43	0x1b4574…
10-09 03:55:15	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0xcf7018…
09-21 10:07:08	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	BUY	866	17¢	$147	0x565dbe…
08-24 05:39:04	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	SELL	206	60¢	$124	0xa1a485…
07-29 17:50:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xd491c4…
07-29 17:50:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xdf6756…
07-29 17:47:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x750252…
07-29 17:47:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0x35f48e…
07-28 23:25:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xe539c6…
07-28 23:25:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0xb23242…
07-28 23:25:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0x5f3a0c…
07-28 23:20:20	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 23:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x9f472c…
07-28 23:20:20	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 23:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x8627ab…
07-28 23:20:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0xa73b4d…
07-28 23:20:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x1e4d4c…
07-28 18:37:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x47b6f4…
07-28 18:36:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xba0c35…
07-28 18:36:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xc047a5…
07-27 16:25:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x7a8c50…
07-27 16:22:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xcf140b…
07-27 16:21:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x2fca1f…
07-27 16:21:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0x0079c3…
07-21 18:41:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xadb3ff…
07-21 18:39:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x0e5c14…
07-20 03:24:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xb67a63…
07-20 03:24:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xa41698…
07-20 03:24:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x6943a6…
07-20 03:24:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x020046…
07-20 03:24:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x137166…
07-18 00:15:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-18 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf0a4fc…
07-18 00:15:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-18 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0xd5dffb…
07-18 00:14:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-18 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x1cb23a…
07-17 03:56:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-17 03:45 UTC	Down	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x59baed…
07-17 03:54:40	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-17 03:45 UTC	Up	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x844e8d…
07-17 03:50:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-17 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x819990…
07-17 03:50:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-17 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x15ba67…
07-17 03:50:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-17 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x4dc9c8…
07-17 03:50:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-17 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xb208d4…
07-17 03:50:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-17 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x31332d…
07-17 03:50:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-17 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x562608…
07-17 03:50:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-17 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x93b462…
07-16 07:50:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	49¢	$5	0xeec59a…
07-16 07:50:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	49¢	$0	0x1cf75c…
07-16 07:48:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 07:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x7eb7de…
07-16 07:48:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x83473f…
07-16 07:48:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 07:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xcf4393…
07-16 07:48:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 07:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x6086dc…
07-16 07:47:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x8bd892…
07-16 04:53:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 04:45 UTC	Up	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x103ccd…
07-16 04:45:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 04:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x76f301…
07-16 02:11:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x13ef9d…
07-16 02:11:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x1645ca…
07-16 02:10:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x1d0539…
07-16 02:10:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x65182e…
07-16 02:09:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	14¢	$0	0xd7d56f…
07-16 02:09:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x86731b…
07-16 02:09:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x68d074…
07-15 18:55:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-15 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	0	12¢	$0	0xff7a54…
07-15 18:55:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-15 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xe1cfc6…
07-13 22:32:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-13 22:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0xb7c952…
07-13 22:32:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-13 22:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x6ab99c…
06-24 19:36:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x1b1017…
06-24 19:17:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:15 UTC	Up	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0xab26d7…
06-24 19:17:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:15 UTC	Up	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0x201594…
06-24 19:16:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x88af96…
06-24 19:16:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x7d3f98…
06-24 19:11:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xc0dd85…
06-24 19:11:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x4eb541…
06-24 19:06:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:05 UTC	Up	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0xf01056…
06-24 19:06:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:05 UTC	Up	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0x772173…
06-24 19:06:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x99e2e1…
06-24 19:06:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x6c2bf9…
06-24 18:48:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:45 UTC	Down	SELL	6	62¢	$4	0x683a92…
06-24 18:46:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xb75abc…
06-23 00:26:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 00:25 UTC	Up	SELL	6	52¢	$3	0xe3f29e…
06-23 00:26:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 00:25 UTC	Up	SELL	6	52¢	$3	0x31d14c…
06-23 00:26:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 00:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xef204b…
06-23 00:26:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 00:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x555dc9…
06-23 00:21:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 00:20 UTC	Down	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0xb1d356…
06-23 00:21:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 00:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x6bfea6…
06-23 00:13:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 00:10 UTC	Up	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0x596d29…
06-23 00:13:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 00:10 UTC	Up	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0x169522…
06-23 00:11:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 00:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0xc051a9…
06-23 00:11:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 00:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x16670a…
06-22 23:51:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 23:50 UTC	Up	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0xf9d3fe…
06-22 23:51:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 23:50 UTC	Up	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0x81eb12…
06-22 23:51:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 23:50 UTC	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x76b447…
06-22 23:51:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 23:50 UTC	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x64f4e2…
06-22 23:46:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 23:45 UTC	Up	SELL	6	59¢	$4	0x050217…
06-22 23:46:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 23:45 UTC	Up	SELL	6	57¢	$3	0x7103d8…
06-22 23:46:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x0bca0a…
06-22 23:46:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x6d1661…
06-22 23:33:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 23:30 UTC	Up	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x66c66d…
06-22 23:33:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 23:30 UTC	Up	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x44c6d3…