Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

79.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$318

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

2 positions

First seen

2026-06-18

last 10-30 08:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Other

77% 76% -$3

Tech

13% 67% -$2

Politics

7% — —

Crypto

2% 50% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No		+5	$5	95¢	$5	+$0	10-29 12:45
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No		+5	$5	93¢	$5	$0	10-29 14:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	3	$13	16	0	+16	No	+$2	10-15 05:15
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	3	$11	16	0	+16	No	-$1	10-17 23:15
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	10-07 07:13
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	2	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$1	10-17 05:05
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?	2	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$1	10-18 23:20
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	2	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$1	10-16 05:25
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	2	$9	10	0	+10	Yes	+$1	10-16 04:05
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	2	$9	11	0	+11	No	+$1	10-20 17:50
Will Capital One Mobile be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	2	$6	10	0	+10	Yes	-$6	10-23 05:05
Will Jenna Dewan be eliminated in week 7 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	10-27 07:50
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-09 10:10
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 8, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-08 19:00
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-23 01:20
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	10-29 14:50
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-13 09:35
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 5, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-05 16:55
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-23 02:40
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	1	$5	7	0	+7	Yes	+$2	10-26 13:11
Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	+$1	10-13 09:36
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 23, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-22 22:00
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-13 09:38
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	-$5	10-16 00:45
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	10-29 22:20
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	10-29 12:45
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-20 00:15
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Stephen Colbert by October 31, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	10-29 17:36
ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	10-30 03:01
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-18 10:45
Will MrBeast's next video get between 112 and 115 million views on day 3?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-20 03:05
Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	10-30 08:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 08:06:39	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x14e26c…
10-30 04:00:57	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xf2a9be…
10-30 03:01:10	ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x41b2c4…
10-29 22:20:34	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa9328a…
10-29 21:55:37	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xd87594…
10-29 20:20:55	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Zohran Mamdani by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$5	0x4512ad…
10-29 17:36:49	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Stephen Colbert by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xc068bc…
10-29 14:50:52	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1a92fc…
10-29 12:45:40	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xfe2d2e…
10-29 12:12:11	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x49bd49…
10-29 10:08:44	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x75a6ac…
10-29 08:36:22	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x348a55…
10-29 02:29:10	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	18	23¢	$4	0x001376…
10-28 19:05:31	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$4	0xf719ef…
10-27 13:10:29	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xebcb48…
10-27 12:25:53	Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x6787d4…
10-27 07:50:35	Will Jenna Dewan be eliminated in week 7 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xc5b63b…
10-26 13:11:15	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x540ede…
10-23 05:05:47	Will Capital One Mobile be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x6fc051…
10-23 04:20:21	Will Capital One Mobile be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x204649…
10-23 02:40:23	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x88c285…
10-23 01:20:36	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xcba527…
10-22 22:45:18	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 23?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0x374c65…
10-22 22:00:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9278b9…
10-22 05:50:22	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$5	0x02ef22…
10-22 00:50:21	Will MrBeast's next video get between 121 and 123 million views on day 5?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x0fe4a0…
10-21 07:10:20	Will MrBeast's next video get between 115 and 117 million views on day 4?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xb6e671…
10-20 17:50:20	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$5	0xd5c2e3…
10-20 03:05:20	Will MrBeast's next video get between 112 and 115 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x4303f4…
10-20 00:15:21	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x562b95…
10-20 00:00:21	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xf16596…
10-19 11:20:18	Will OpenRouter process less than 165T tokens the week of October 19?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x4bb6ad…
10-18 23:20:18	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xf0d6bd…
10-18 10:45:21	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xe41f79…
10-18 05:18:32	Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0xbae421…
10-17 23:15:17	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf98d59…
10-17 05:40:22	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x6d074c…
10-17 05:05:17	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc7c45e…
10-17 00:30:21	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x44e761…
10-16 07:20:21	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x808bd1…
10-16 05:25:18	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf69e56…
10-16 04:05:18	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x51ca60…
10-16 00:45:22	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xb8b61d…
10-15 17:25:25	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x7f0d50…
10-15 17:00:23	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xa61db7…
10-15 16:40:20	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 18 2026	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xa592af…
10-15 13:00:23	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$5	0x8ce530…
10-15 12:35:19	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xdd2bc3…
10-15 07:10:20	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 17 2026	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x9f5056…
10-15 05:45:19	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xfe79eb…
10-15 05:15:17	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0x30812e…
10-15 04:30:22	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xb9e265…
10-15 00:35:19	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 16 2026	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x6281cf…
10-14 12:25:21	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xe1552a…
10-14 12:05:20	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	6	25¢	$1	0x834de4…
10-14 04:25:19	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x56d865…
10-13 23:30:19	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x804a48…
10-13 19:05:21	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x436137…
10-13 17:50:21	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x4b8c42…
10-13 15:45:19	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x5eaf99…
10-13 09:40:14	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	13	11¢	$1	0x5b7317…
10-13 09:38:52	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa0bd48…
10-13 09:38:41	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	29	5¢	$1	0xe0beb3…
10-13 09:38:31	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0x819786…
10-13 09:36:58	Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xbf9deb…
10-13 09:36:46	Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0x2ba1a8…
10-13 09:36:08	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	13	11¢	$1	0xa4cec0…
10-13 09:35:55	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x769c0f…
10-12 16:40:20	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xf39898…
10-09 10:10:16	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7b781a…
10-08 19:00:20	Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 8, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x603bef…
10-07 07:13:23	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$5	0xa32cf8…
10-06 22:34:53	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0x4c17b3…
10-05 16:55:10	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1b8b6b…
08-07 12:09:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 12:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x83a63a…
06-18 12:31:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-18 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x4dd04e…