Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$137

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

4.9%

Resolved

Trades

508

lifetime

Volume

$6.73K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-08-30

last 11-01 12:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Other

71% 13% -$38

Politics

18% 9% -$63

Tech

8% 0% -$36

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+0	$0	85¢	$0	$0	09-04 20:30
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$4	42¢	$0	-$4	10-07 00:50
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+0	$1	64¢	$0	-$1	10-26 19:58
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	8¢	$0	$0	10-26 20:12
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+0	$3	16¢	$0	-$3	10-03 10:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	8	$262	250	250	+0	open	—	10-07 00:50
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	4	$196	200	200	+0	No	-$3	10-01 19:04
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	7	$175	150	150	+0	open	—	10-10 12:01
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	17	$159	250	250	+0	open	—	10-03 10:09
will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	5	$153	100	100	+0	No	-$15	09-25 17:21
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	2	$134	100	100	+0	open	—	10-09 11:38
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	6	$124	100	100	+0	open	—	10-01 08:11
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit?	4	$120	100	100	+0	No	-$8	09-23 21:34
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD?	2	$104	60	60	+0	Yes	-$3	10-16 12:42
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$102	100	100	+0	open	—	09-28 20:51
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	10	$100	100	100	+0	open	—	10-05 03:34
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	4	$97	100	100	+0	No	-$4	09-28 07:01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	4	$94	100	100	+0	open	—	10-03 10:13
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	6	$92	100	100	+0	open	—	09-27 07:49
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.21% in September?	2	$89	50	50	+0	No	+$0	09-21 14:20
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	2	$85	50	50	+0	open	—	10-16 04:34
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	2	$84	50	50	+0	open	—	09-20 17:39
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	2	$83	50	50	+0	open	—	10-27 08:25
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	10	$83	100	100	+0	No	-$5	09-06 19:19
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	5	$82	100	100	+0	open	—	10-19 16:55
Will Octane (Don Toliver) win Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	2	$82	50	50	+0	open	—	10-30 08:56
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?	7	$81	50	50	+0	open	—	10-17 22:03
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	3	$80	50	50	+0	open	—	10-31 13:02
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	2	$78	50	50	+0	open	—	10-13 12:43
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?	2	$78	50	50	+0	open	—	10-23 11:00
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	4	$76	71	71	+0	open	—	09-21 03:06
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	2	$74	50	50	+0	open	—	09-18 03:51
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	2	$73	60	60	+0	Yes	-$11	10-11 20:54
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	2	$72	50	50	+0	open	—	10-04 09:26
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	5	$70	61	61	+0	open	—	09-18 21:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 12:17:22	Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x326ac3…
11-01 12:15:09	Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x7fe50a…
11-01 08:38:40	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xf27bdb…
11-01 08:38:37	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x0aa55a…
11-01 04:35:46	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xac96f4…
11-01 02:59:22	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x9fe505…
11-01 01:42:58	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xc2c89d…
10-31 19:47:51	Will Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xbf217a…
10-31 19:45:18	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	13¢	$0	0xc6549a…
10-31 13:02:00	Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0x776f85…
10-31 12:55:34	Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	84¢	$21	0xdc8399…
10-31 12:55:34	Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	84¢	$21	0xd041db…
10-31 07:44:33	Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x0cd8e8…
10-31 07:41:18	Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x820ccf…
10-31 07:23:09	Will Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xd9df89…
10-31 05:22:57	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0x07794b…
10-31 05:17:00	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xfc163b…
10-31 02:22:07	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x9ea77f…
10-30 23:04:07	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xb61fda…
10-30 21:07:57	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x675aba…
10-30 20:57:27	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x6d9e21…
10-30 13:06:16	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x506c27…
10-30 13:01:33	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x6f0c8f…
10-30 08:56:15	Will Octane (Don Toliver) win Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	SELL	50	77¢	$38	0xce3b6f…
10-30 08:56:03	Will Octane (Don Toliver) win Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x5ec752…
10-29 19:15:36	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0xc3ba45…
10-29 17:49:55	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x52df80…
10-29 02:14:17	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	No	SELL	50	65¢	$32	0xbbbab6…
10-29 02:11:13	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x2b8787…
10-28 10:21:01	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xc85e01…
10-28 05:19:23	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xd86f6c…
10-28 05:18:50	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xcc6503…
10-28 05:14:50	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x599510…
10-28 04:46:35	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x3d81df…
10-28 03:06:42	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x377f51…
10-28 01:41:29	Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xc80a48…
10-28 01:37:35	Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x2b50a2…
10-27 15:08:57	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	33	13¢	$4	0xc13dbd…
10-27 13:50:12	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	33	13¢	$4	0xc9de5e…
10-27 13:16:03	Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?	Yes	SELL	13	62¢	$8	0x1cb3bb…
10-27 11:25:53	Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0xff5d3d…
10-27 08:25:54	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0x2ff33c…
10-27 08:25:45	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xe42438…
10-27 00:50:57	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	17	27¢	$5	0x9b6654…
10-26 20:33:53	Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xdc6ddf…
10-26 20:12:47	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	17¢	$0	0x70d48e…
10-26 19:58:29	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	57¢	$2	0xf97b5a…
10-26 19:25:57	Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x0e3308…
10-26 18:56:54	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0x8eb4c9…
10-26 18:45:03	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0xfa96e3…
10-26 18:34:57	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xabf562…
10-26 15:11:48	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	56¢	$4	0xe6b0cb…
10-26 15:11:48	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	56¢	$0	0xc8fbdf…
10-26 15:08:02	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xe88580…
10-26 14:47:00	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027?	No	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xa8ab92…
10-26 14:46:59	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027?	No	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xc19a00…
10-26 14:46:59	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027?	No	SELL	10	55¢	$5	0x64512a…
10-26 14:46:38	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xef8e81…
10-26 01:11:53	Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x9c830d…
10-26 01:11:00	Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xff0b2b…
10-25 12:52:48	Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	50	58¢	$29	0x9c9a5f…
10-25 12:43:38	Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x211804…
10-24 12:35:05	Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	No	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0xae5081…
10-24 11:42:51	Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x2a9ba8…
10-23 13:33:14	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	Yes	SELL	50	35¢	$18	0x6278e6…
10-23 13:08:47	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	Yes	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0xf42da6…
10-23 13:08:47	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	Yes	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0xc18e03…
10-23 11:00:48	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?	No	SELL	50	77¢	$38	0xab7145…
10-23 11:00:30	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x5dfcd9…
10-22 16:24:08	US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	15¢	$6	0xf88f6f…
10-22 15:10:05	US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0xcf314a…
10-22 15:08:24	US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x3e877b…
10-21 17:24:21	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	45¢	$21	0x787111…
10-21 14:32:32	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	49¢	$1	0x74de89…
10-21 09:40:53	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	59¢	$1	0x0c290d…
10-21 09:39:20	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0xf5ee4c…
10-20 22:50:11	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	SELL	50	38¢	$19	0xfffb67…
10-20 20:55:59	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xdc6d50…
10-20 12:59:14	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	Yes	SELL	50	37¢	$19	0x23cfd0…
10-20 10:19:17	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x7140f3…
10-19 23:39:45	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?	No	SELL	43	8¢	$3	0xf8ac92…
10-19 21:13:10	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?	No	BUY	43	15¢	$6	0xafae43…
10-19 16:55:50	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	41	44¢	$18	0x14f423…
10-19 08:18:29	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	44¢	$4	0x48325b…
10-18 23:24:42	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0xf7169d…
10-18 23:24:23	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	SELL	7	59¢	$4	0x170ae1…
10-18 23:18:54	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x89478e…
10-18 18:58:44	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	27	31¢	$8	0xcce551…
10-18 17:11:53	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	22	59¢	$13	0xb8d39a…
10-18 15:52:26	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	28	55¢	$15	0x1cee18…
10-18 14:43:20	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x4f6be6…
10-18 13:50:29	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0xba4180…
10-18 11:07:42	Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0xa97d9e…
10-18 08:43:20	Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x38c8e4…
10-18 07:36:50	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x6ab882…
10-18 07:34:44	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x17b60b…
10-18 05:04:03	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xda05d7…
10-17 23:22:08	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0xa892b9…
10-17 22:03:05	Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	78¢	$20	0x9c1c41…
10-17 22:02:59	Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x561952…