Hot-Bugle — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$980

Unrealized P&L

+$19

Hit rate

81.7%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

895

1,702 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$111.7K

$565.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

$333

Open exposure

$430

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 16:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Other

88% 99% -$546

Sports

9% 96% +$156

Politics

2% 100% +$11

Crypto

1% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 147 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No		+247	$222	96¢	$236	+$14	10-26 15:55
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	No		+206	$189	94¢	$194	+$5	10-30 16:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 40 59	30	$16.3K	8,220	8,075	+145	No	+$0	03-04 17:48
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 40 59	30	$9.8K	4,951	4,840	+111	No	+$0	03-08 03:36
highest temperature in nyc on april 13 2026 78 79f	15	$9.6K	9,629	0	+9,629	Yes	+$10	04-14 05:28
highest temperature in chicago on march 28 2026 60 61f	2	$9.5K	9,510	0	+9,510	No	+$10	03-29 04:21
highest temperature in lucknow on march 14 2026 40c	1	$9.4K	9,459	0	+9,459	No	+$19	03-14 12:57
will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	2	$9.3K	9,357	0	+9,357	Yes	+$11	04-14 15:13
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$9.3K	9,344	0	+9,344	Yes	+$9	03-03 06:07
will bitget resume withdrawals by september 30 2026	22	$9.1K	5,349	4,010	+1,339	Yes	+$150	09-28 08:53
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	1	$9.0K	9,000	0	+9,000	Under	+$9	04-29 02:58
dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16	81	$8.4K	17,000	0	+17,000	Team Yandex	+$136	08-16 11:30
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 80 99	3	$8.3K	4,212	4,100	+112	No	+$2	03-10 18:01
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims)	2	$8.0K	8,000	0	+8,000	Rafa Garcia	+$8	04-26 02:42
dota2 ironwi boombo 2026 08 20 game2	45	$8.0K	16,065	0	+16,065	BoomBoys	+$79	08-21 03:58
dota2 ironwi boombo 2026 08 20	34	$7.9K	16,000	0	+16,000	BoomBoys	+$120	08-21 05:20
highest temperature in nyc on march 11 2026 50 51f	2	$7.8K	7,781	0	+7,781	No	+$9	03-10 21:04
dota2 ironwi ts8 2026 08 19 game2	45	$7.4K	18,012	0	+18,012	Team Spirit	-$1,431	08-20 05:13
highest temperature in moscow on april 23 2026 9corhigher	4	$7.0K	6,999	0	+6,999	Yes	+$8	04-23 06:33
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 60 79	14	$6.7K	3,390	3,285	+105	No	+$0	03-08 13:32
highest temperature in wellington on march 5 2026 15c	2	$6.6K	6,653	0	+6,653	No	+$7	03-04 21:00
highest temperature in seoul on april 12 2026 19c	9	$6.6K	6,627	0	+6,627	Yes	+$7	04-12 13:26
dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16 game1	37	$6.4K	13,000	0	+13,000	LGD Gaming	+$115	08-16 08:47
highest temperature in seoul on march 6 2026 4c	1	$6.3K	6,302	0	+6,302	Yes	+$6	03-06 10:42
UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	48	$6.1K	6,000	6,000	+0	Alexander Volkanovski	+$80	10-24 19:56
highest temperature in wellington on april 18 2026 11corbelow	4	$6.0K	6,013	0	+6,013	No	+$6	04-17 02:38
highest temperature in jeddah on april 16 2026 40corhigher	11	$6.0K	6,000	0	+6,000	No	+$6	04-16 19:41
dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22	48	$5.7K	11,508	0	+11,508	TEAM VISION	+$152	08-22 12:39
highest temperature in seoul on march 5 2026 11corhigher	1	$5.5K	5,547	0	+5,547	No	+$6	03-05 08:51
dota2 liquid flc 2026 08 21	18	$5.5K	9,831	0	+9,831	Team Liquid	-$152	08-21 09:49
highest temperature in wellington on april 15 2026 12c	1	$5.2K	5,203	0	+5,203	No	+$5	04-14 07:14
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 80 99	4	$5.0K	2,565	2,450	+115	No	+$3	03-04 23:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 16:41:10	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	449	79¢	$354	0x4b8d0c…
10-30 16:30:37	Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$14	0xb7234c…
10-30 16:30:13	Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	220	92¢	$203	0xa337fb…
10-30 16:24:07	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	48	79¢	$38	0xeaaeac…
10-30 16:03:37	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	148	83¢	$122	0x1d08e2…
10-30 15:35:36	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	500	80¢	$400	0xd38d74…
10-30 15:15:15	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	24	83¢	$20	0x7309bd…
10-30 14:01:25	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	153	81¢	$124	0xa27060…
10-30 13:13:57	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	46	81¢	$38	0x149ab2…
10-30 13:12:45	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	300	81¢	$243	0x7799e3…
10-30 12:26:24	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0x288648…
10-30 11:46:39	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	480	97¢	$466	0x08b058…
10-30 11:46:16	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	97¢	$59	0xcea199…
10-30 11:46:16	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x7da267…
10-30 11:46:10	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x81f81a…
10-30 11:46:07	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x704d23…
10-30 11:46:07	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x5af277…
10-30 11:46:01	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0xf4ee9f…
10-30 11:45:55	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x7ad15d…
10-30 11:45:45	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0x0c71d2…
10-30 10:18:30	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x57eba1…
10-30 09:06:51	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	500	98¢	$492	0xa161b4…
10-29 22:11:45	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	95¢	$13	0xa4ebd7…
10-29 10:56:23	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	SELL	670	100¢	$668	0x8f9a0c…
10-28 18:34:59	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0xd5a328…
10-28 17:30:43	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0x34a37d…
10-27 23:52:08	Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Sean Strickland next?	No	SELL	25	84¢	$21	0x2d4a17…
10-27 23:10:30	Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Sean Strickland next?	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x29eb2b…
10-27 22:49:03	Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Nasourdine Imavov next?	No	SELL	164	76¢	$125	0x78abeb…
10-27 15:18:03	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	SELL	25	86¢	$22	0x8e5f5b…
10-27 14:20:48	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0xf827c8…
10-27 14:13:33	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	SELL	500	95¢	$474	0x8d5aba…
10-27 14:11:02	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	94¢	$24	0xc10fcc…
10-27 13:41:50	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x6d3e25…
10-27 13:28:27	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0xbe2691…
10-27 12:39:47	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x7b2618…
10-27 11:29:33	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Jiri Prochazka next?	No	SELL	25	91¢	$23	0x408ba3…
10-27 09:33:02	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0xa86aca…
10-27 08:57:26	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x16d353…
10-27 08:16:27	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	BUY	51	91¢	$46	0xa61e31…
10-27 04:29:20	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xf9919d…
10-27 04:29:20	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xc8b25e…
10-27 04:29:18	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xe45d29…
10-27 03:20:02	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xabbbe3…
10-27 00:04:47	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0x7f0c92…
10-26 23:00:41	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	BUY	48	79¢	$38	0x0d9cf7…
10-26 20:41:53	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	BUY	28	79¢	$22	0x0aaaaa…
10-26 18:27:23	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0xe4f1ab…
10-26 17:34:11	Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	55	68¢	$38	0xf7e806…
10-26 17:15:33	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x3e061d…
10-26 16:35:08	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0xca2b56…
10-26 16:35:08	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x55ecce…
10-26 16:35:08	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x42f4d2…
10-26 15:55:21	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	55	94¢	$52	0x202a28…
10-26 13:29:33	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	94¢	$24	0x84108a…
10-26 13:29:15	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0xa5095f…
10-26 13:29:00	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0x8e561a…
10-26 13:28:00	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0x96da49…
10-26 13:22:30	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0x424b7c…
10-26 12:54:44	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	94¢	$87	0x3f7e49…
10-26 12:52:54	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x1341d0…
10-26 12:48:11	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0xbd0cbf…
10-26 12:48:09	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x924a5e…
10-26 12:10:20	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0xa86e18…
10-26 11:57:17	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	94¢	$20	0xec37a9…
10-26 11:57:15	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x747bac…
10-26 11:14:51	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	SELL	25	94¢	$23	0x7f48bd…
10-26 10:11:24	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x93eca4…
10-26 10:05:57	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0x991747…
10-26 09:40:02	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x01f0dc…
10-26 09:26:56	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x2b7cce…
10-26 08:49:41	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	BUY	339	93¢	$315	0x53f864…
10-26 06:48:59	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	91¢	$45	0xcabc1b…
10-26 06:12:51	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	SELL	100	86¢	$86	0x9bcd85…
10-26 04:56:03	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xdaba40…
10-26 04:52:17	Will Islam Makhachev be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	93¢	$52	0xb3ae77…
10-26 04:34:06	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0xdcd855…
10-26 04:19:15	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	BUY	84	93¢	$78	0x0e5412…
10-26 04:04:21	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0xb330b3…
10-26 03:55:02	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x348215…
10-26 03:15:39	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	91¢	$11	0x493b52…
10-26 01:18:35	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0x079193…
10-26 01:01:15	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	91¢	$17	0x223583…
10-26 00:55:48	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	BUY	17	93¢	$16	0xa43be2…
10-26 00:54:08	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x04631d…
10-25 23:13:09	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	94¢	$46	0xa7a129…
10-25 23:03:24	Will Islam Makhachev be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0x686b63…
10-25 21:53:45	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	94¢	$13	0x43ce69…
10-25 21:37:41	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x0dd925…
10-25 21:26:20	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	94¢	$35	0x735111…
10-25 20:44:59	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	SELL	75	96¢	$72	0x1abc26…
10-25 20:28:11	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	88¢	$24	0x01101c…
10-25 20:20:05	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0x0777ae…
10-25 20:15:35	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0x3da24a…
10-25 20:15:33	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0xcaf314…
10-25 20:15:32	Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0xbf7795…
10-25 20:04:51	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x672e5b…
10-25 20:04:33	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0xcca630…
10-25 19:04:12	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	88¢	$43	0xddb9ca…
10-25 19:04:12	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	88¢	$13	0xb1a7dc…