Offensive-Porch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$161

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

54.6%

Resolved

1,086

Trades

1,858

lifetime

Volume

$3.75K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$16

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 10-31 16:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Crypto

73% 48% -$130

Other

20% 48% -$31

Tech

4% 75% +$1

Politics

2% 33% -$1

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	No		+16	$10	80¢	$13	+$3	10-27 08:12
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes		+16	$7	20¢	$3	-$3	10-31 16:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	9	$72	60	60	-0	open	—	10-31 16:20
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	9	$72	90	70	+20	No	+$1	10-25 17:56
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	6	$59	60	60	+0	Yes	+$2	10-25 11:11
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	6	$40	40	40	+0	open	—	10-31 16:20
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the highest-scoring RB of the 2026-27 NFL season?	8	$38	36	36	+0	open	—	10-22 04:41
Paris curfew by October 24?	2	$38	36	36	+0	Yes	+$1	10-19 16:33
Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?	4	$33	40	40	+0	Yes	-$6	10-31 16:20
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	4	$26	40	10	+30	open	—	10-29 02:10
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?	2	$24	20	20	+0	open	—	10-29 00:46
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	4	$23	40	8	+32	open	—	10-31 16:20
Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	2	$23	20	20	+0	open	—	10-29 07:07
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	2	$22	20	20	+0	open	—	10-23 05:39
Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 14.5% to 15.5%?	4	$22	30	10	+20	No	+$0	10-25 23:21
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	2	$21	20	20	+0	open	—	10-26 03:22
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	2	$21	20	20	+0	No	-$2	10-22 13:15
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	2	$21	16	16	+0	Yes	+$0	10-24 12:41
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in October?	4	$21	20	20	+0	open	—	10-30 22:57
Will FIS (FIS) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$21	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-27 11:26
Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	2	$21	20	20	+0	open	—	10-25 03:59
Will AutoZone Q1 domestic same store sales growth be between 0.5% and 1.5%?	4	$20	20	20	+0	open	—	10-23 01:54
Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of October 2026?	3	$19	14	14	+0	No	$0	10-25 10:19
Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?	3	$19	31	9	+22	No	$0	10-23 15:21
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% by June 30, 2027?	2	$19	19	19	+0	open	—	10-26 21:26
Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	2	$19	20	20	+0	open	—	10-31 16:19
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	2	$19	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	10-20 21:18
Will Tradeweb (TW) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$18	20	20	+0	No	-$2	10-24 10:40
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	2	$17	20	20	+0	Yes	-$1	10-23 15:23
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	3	$17	20	20	+0	open	—	10-22 16:05
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	3	$16	20	20	+0	open	—	10-20 18:42
Will In-fa become a Super Typhoon?	2	$16	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	10-26 21:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 16:21:21	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x91124f…
10-31 16:20:54	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x33d83b…
10-31 16:20:43	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0x659c62…
10-31 16:20:30	Will DuPont (DD) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x5272a8…
10-31 16:20:15	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x2ff998…
10-31 16:20:03	Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x5abc9a…
10-31 16:19:21	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x973fc2…
10-31 12:16:58	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xe8f0f8…
10-30 22:57:22	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in October?	No	SELL	8	34¢	$3	0xd88cf8…
10-30 22:57:22	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in October?	No	SELL	12	34¢	$4	0x29f825…
10-30 22:57:22	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in October?	No	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0x1adadb…
10-29 16:56:49	will core pce mom be 0pt2pct in october 2026	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x7a3d83…
10-29 07:07:44	Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x4ebe77…
10-29 04:54:40	Israel tourism plunges below 40K by January?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x056a79…
10-29 03:32:40	Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x52a4e2…
10-29 03:18:19	Israel tourism plunges below 40K by January?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xe9b146…
10-29 02:10:14	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xb4ac40…
10-29 00:46:56	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x985c42…
10-29 00:34:01	next fable model 5pt2 released by november 6 2026	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x2cc902…
10-28 18:19:29	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xc93fcd…
10-27 12:02:03	Will DuPont (DD) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xad369b…
10-27 11:55:17	Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x3230d9…
10-27 11:54:30	Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0xb39799…
10-27 11:26:30	Will FIS (FIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x371714…
10-27 10:27:18	Will FIS (FIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x48fe4a…
10-27 08:24:18	Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x209732…
10-27 08:12:45	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x577ea0…
10-27 08:12:36	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	63¢	$3	0x5d9aed…
10-27 07:29:24	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xf4b3df…
10-27 06:57:53	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x967bf7…
10-27 06:57:50	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xf55f06…
10-27 06:57:47	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x5abf3f…
10-26 22:44:59	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x2e656e…
10-26 22:43:53	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xaa267c…
10-26 21:40:42	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xc19a99…
10-26 21:26:26	Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	19	46¢	$9	0x05be6f…
10-26 21:25:56	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x574015…
10-26 21:09:57	Will In-fa become a Super Typhoon?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x70d913…
10-26 21:09:51	Will In-fa become a Super Typhoon?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xd31038…
10-26 20:56:54	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x9daf8e…
10-26 17:23:05	Rain during the United States Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x9656ec…
10-26 14:00:51	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	No	SELL	9	45¢	$4	0xebcf15…
10-26 13:36:00	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0xf987fb…
10-26 12:55:03	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xbdc524…
10-26 11:06:33	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xde9644…
10-26 11:04:47	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x686210…
10-26 03:22:26	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xaed088…
10-26 01:42:12	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xd27147…
10-25 23:21:21	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 14.5% to 15.5%?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x1496ec…
10-25 20:26:12	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xf1d8df…
10-25 19:31:17	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0xa358d9…
10-25 19:30:59	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x377557…
10-25 19:29:50	Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x0e714f…
10-25 18:13:35	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 14.5% to 15.5%?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x5b4f58…
10-25 18:09:41	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	No	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0x340ab8…
10-25 17:56:11	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x0f850c…
10-25 17:14:21	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x086a5f…
10-25 17:01:44	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x4653fa…
10-25 15:27:27	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 14.5% to 15.5%?	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xfb02fc…
10-25 15:00:44	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 14.5% to 15.5%?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x03433c…
10-25 11:11:48	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xdf59ea…
10-25 10:19:21	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0x7a2402…
10-25 08:30:51	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x67ad48…
10-25 08:17:21	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	5	66¢	$4	0x777e63…
10-25 07:40:45	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x819493…
10-25 07:39:17	Will "Below: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x28fdcb…
10-25 07:21:06	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0xbab59e…
10-25 07:20:47	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x97d225…
10-25 07:20:47	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x481561…
10-25 07:20:02	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xbe0052…
10-25 06:01:02	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xc2d713…
10-25 03:59:48	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x13b31b…
10-24 18:45:15	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x2b395a…
10-24 14:30:38	Will "Below: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x828998…
10-24 12:41:54	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	69¢	$11	0x62a9af…
10-24 11:43:20	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	66¢	$10	0x712dd0…
10-24 10:40:44	Will Tradeweb (TW) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x69711b…
10-23 19:36:54	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x8f65b9…
10-23 18:47:06	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x056630…
10-23 18:00:27	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x83bc94…
10-23 17:45:00	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x3bd10d…
10-23 17:27:05	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x9d955d…
10-23 17:26:51	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x292b07…
10-23 17:25:29	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xfe3e7d…
10-23 16:18:57	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xf53390…
10-23 15:23:47	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xd81645…
10-23 15:21:02	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?	Yes	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0x91089e…
10-23 12:52:06	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xf164ad…
10-23 12:29:21	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	56¢	$6	0x322eff…
10-23 12:29:17	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x24f235…
10-23 12:19:39	Will "Clayface" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	9	39¢	$4	0x06a4c7…
10-23 12:10:09	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x394336…
10-23 11:29:42	Rain during the United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x06239d…
10-23 09:03:59	Will Tradeweb (TW) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xdb14df…
10-23 05:39:02	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x282670…
10-23 03:59:23	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x7e05eb…
10-23 03:51:45	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xcec361…
10-23 03:45:53	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xc183f9…
10-23 03:18:38	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x58c710…
10-23 02:16:12	Will "Clayface" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x42232a…