Drafty-Group — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$34

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.4%

Resolved

Trades

154

lifetime

Volume

$2.02K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 08-31 02:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 56 days

Categories

Other

80% 93% -$38

Politics

12% 89% +$3

Crypto

3% 100% +$0

Sports

2% 100% +$1

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$60	60	0	+60	No	+$0	05-29 15:15
will mrbeasts next video get 80 million or more views on day 5	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	03-26 05:51
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%?	2	$43	22	22	+0	Yes	+$0	05-25 09:24
highest temperature in warsaw on march 20 2026 8c	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$1	03-20 10:31
highest temperature in nyc on march 16 2026 50 51f	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	03-16 10:53
will elizabeth taylor get between 2pt5 and 2pt75 million views in the first week	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	04-08 13:37
highest temperature in london on march 17 2026 17c	2	$37	19	19	+0	No	+$0	03-17 11:19
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	2	$36	18	18	+0	No	+$0	03-30 20:49
highest temperature in london on march 19 2026 15c	2	$35	18	18	+0	No	+$0	03-19 12:05
israel closes its airspace by june 10	2	$35	18	18	+0	No	+$0	06-10 23:44
ethereum above 2000 on june 16 2026	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	06-15 10:42
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?	2	$34	17	17	+0	No	$0	06-25 12:09
will ukraine re enter maliivka by march 31	2	$33	17	17	+0	No	+$0	04-01 04:17
highest temperature in shanghai on march 18 2026 15c	2	$33	17	17	+0	No	+$0	03-17 22:08
highest temperature in dallas on march 18 2026 80 81f	2	$33	17	17	+0	No	+$0	03-18 20:38
bitcoin above 52k on july 4 2026	1	$32	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	07-02 16:20
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	2	$32	16	16	+0	No	+$0	05-30 14:23
will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the april meeting	2	$31	16	16	+0	Yes	+$0	04-24 10:30
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?	2	$31	16	16	+0	Yes	+$0	05-18 07:38
highest temperature in singapore on march 16 2026 33c	2	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$0	03-16 09:05
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this week?	2	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$0	05-19 18:56
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in June?	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	06-26 15:19
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	2	$29	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	05-12 02:47
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	2	$29	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	05-20 19:08
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	06-25 13:20
will 30 34 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$0	03-24 13:01
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	05-04 19:34
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	04-18 20:01
will trust me the false prophet be the 2 global netflix show this week	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	04-13 00:00
will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on march 17	2	$21	11	11	+0	Yes	+$1	03-17 13:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 02:38:12	Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb8d454…
07-28 06:00:48	will andurils valuation hit high 150 by july 31 20260629184730571	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x4d72c6…
07-12 06:30:02	Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x06be43…
07-02 16:20:55	bitcoin above 52k on july 4 2026	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x1e1f10…
06-26 15:19:28	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in June?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x993b9d…
06-25 15:07:22	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in June?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x71aa5c…
06-25 13:20:58	Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x3bf790…
06-25 12:09:44	Will Trump be impeached by June 30?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x435185…
06-25 12:09:19	Will Trump be impeached by June 30?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x8830a3…
06-15 11:58:09	Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xb63bb5…
06-15 10:42:40	ethereum above 2000 on june 16 2026	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xa4424b…
06-10 23:44:24	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xfd336b…
06-09 00:01:25	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0x9b06eb…
06-05 11:15:09	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xeffd92…
05-30 19:35:59	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x45cacf…
05-30 14:23:12	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x028f1b…
05-29 15:15:27	Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xaf6383…
05-29 08:05:26	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x72a592…
05-27 02:42:27	Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x9ee62d…
05-25 09:24:50	Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x7c176b…
05-25 01:30:04	Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%?	No	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0x424a0f…
05-20 19:08:25	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xb8aab0…
05-20 00:01:45	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x9a1e96…
05-19 18:56:03	Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x195fa5…
05-18 07:38:54	Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x84b362…
05-18 06:17:23	Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0xff7922…
05-17 11:41:05	Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?	Yes	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xb920cb…
05-12 02:47:01	Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x3a5ab3…
05-11 23:33:41	Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x050c70…
05-07 17:01:32	Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x226953…
05-04 19:34:24	Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x05222c…
05-02 15:56:54	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x777eed…
04-29 09:44:56	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x9a10e2…
04-24 10:30:30	will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x319bf3…
04-23 01:46:30	will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x345fb0…
04-18 20:01:14	Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x4dbebf…
04-16 18:30:24	will glm 5pt1 be the best ai model on april 17 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6e0971…
04-16 14:25:58	claude 4pt7 released by april 17 411	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x916a6e…
04-16 05:45:36	claude 4pt7 released by april 17 411	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x939129…
04-13 00:00:23	will trust me the false prophet be the 2 global netflix show this week	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x9dcce9…
04-08 13:37:55	will elizabeth taylor get between 2pt5 and 2pt75 million views in the first week	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xdc0be0…
04-08 12:36:39	will elizabeth taylor get between 2pt5 and 2pt75 million views in the first week	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x2679fd…
04-05 13:54:13	will project hail mary 3rd weekend box office be less than 35m	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xb5acb3…
04-01 04:17:15	will ukraine re enter maliivka by march 31	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x3c07fb…
03-30 20:49:43	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xd2f314…
03-30 00:01:22	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x9f8dd2…
03-30 00:01:20	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xc9a63e…
03-30 00:01:20	will ukraine re enter maliivka by march 31	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x6d1012…
03-29 23:42:36	will fantasy life score at least 86 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe26830…
03-27 15:00:53	white house of tweets march 20 march 27 2026 180 199	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x5c754d…
03-26 05:51:37	will mrbeasts next video get 80 million or more views on day 5	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xe934cf…
03-25 18:00:19	will mrbeasts next video get 80 million or more views on day 5	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x0ede37…
03-24 13:01:07	will 30 34 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x6af158…
03-20 10:31:25	highest temperature in warsaw on march 20 2026 8c	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xcaa63f…
03-19 20:55:37	highest temperature in warsaw on march 20 2026 8c	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x1832f6…
03-19 12:05:23	highest temperature in london on march 19 2026 15c	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x4fc60f…
03-18 23:24:07	highest temperature in london on march 19 2026 15c	No	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0xa1c5f3…
03-18 20:38:37	highest temperature in dallas on march 18 2026 80 81f	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xd681df…
03-18 10:35:35	highest temperature in dallas on march 18 2026 80 81f	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0xdaeb47…
03-18 04:00:49	highest temperature in sao paulo on march 18 2026 28c	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x4c8172…
03-17 22:08:01	highest temperature in shanghai on march 18 2026 15c	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x72d8ad…
03-17 19:26:57	highest temperature in taipei on march 17 2026 20corbelow	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xe0fda3…
03-17 16:14:21	highest temperature in sao paulo on march 18 2026 28c	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe6abed…
03-17 13:46:35	will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on march 17	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x7291ed…
03-17 12:05:59	highest temperature in shanghai on march 18 2026 15c	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0xc61557…
03-17 11:19:53	highest temperature in london on march 17 2026 17c	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xe4817c…
03-16 19:07:19	will jensen huang say training at the nvidia gtc keynote	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb983a2…
03-16 12:02:27	highest temperature in london on march 17 2026 17c	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x9669bf…
03-16 10:53:19	highest temperature in nyc on march 16 2026 50 51f	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x5cdaa0…
03-16 09:05:39	highest temperature in singapore on march 16 2026 33c	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xe546f5…
03-16 08:21:25	highest temperature in singapore on march 16 2026 33c	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0xb1fda8…
03-16 04:03:23	highest temperature in nyc on march 16 2026 50 51f	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xeaeece…
03-16 01:32:55	will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on march 17	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x47a1ac…
03-15 19:03:29	will pearl be said during the valorant masters grand finals	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xefedbc…
03-15 16:29:27	will jensen huang say training at the nvidia gtc keynote	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x421758…
03-15 00:46:07	will 30 34 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0x630506…
03-14 06:41:15	will pearl be said during the valorant masters grand finals	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x5e6caf…
03-11 04:00:27	will kelvin buck be the democratic nominee for ms 01	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc22448…
03-10 18:54:41	will the dinosaurs be the top us netflix show this week	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x78aeb1…
03-10 03:26:07	will bridgerton season 4 be the top global netflix show this week 577	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd98263…
03-10 01:04:09	will war machine be the top us netflix movie this week	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x9ed38c…
03-09 21:27:29	will war machine be the top global netflix movie this week	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe10896…
03-09 00:18:17	will cd win the second most seats in the 2026 colombian senate election	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5ba5f0…
03-09 00:00:33	will the dinosaurs be the top us netflix show this week	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc29a14…
03-09 00:00:27	will bridgerton season 4 be the top global netflix show this week 577	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x0f7a98…
03-09 00:00:17	will war machine be the top global netflix movie this week	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf4fbdd…
03-09 00:00:17	will war machine be the top us netflix movie this week	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x79a4d5…
03-09 00:00:17	will kelvin buck be the democratic nominee for ms 01	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x1eacda…
03-07 00:00:33	will cd win the second most seats in the 2026 colombian senate election	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xab2864…
03-03 16:26:41	highest temperature in buenos aires on march 3 2026 32c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x34604a…
03-03 00:00:43	will most advanced or most powerful be said during the nyc apple event on march 4	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x5c5611…
03-03 00:00:43	will ipad be said during the nyc apple event on march 4	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x537ed3…
03-02 12:14:09	highest temperature in buenos aires on march 3 2026 32c	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x84a756…
03-02 07:55:27	highest temperature in london on march 2 2026 13c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xcfc6bb…
03-02 00:10:03	Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x1d0e68…
03-01 12:03:15	highest temperature in london on march 2 2026 13c	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x61a06a…
02-28 17:33:53	highest temperature in sao paulo on february 28 2026 27corhigher	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x3c17ec…
02-28 10:05:55	highest temperature in sao paulo on february 28 2026 27corhigher	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x961ba1…
02-28 00:15:23	highest temperature in atlanta on february 28 2026 62 63f	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x675a04…
02-27 14:01:07	highest temperature in atlanta on february 28 2026 62 63f	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x2cec37…