Livid-Tie — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$64

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

440

lifetime

Volume

$210.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$478

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-07 16:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

72% 100% +$62

Other

27% — —

Crypto

1% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	68	$22.1K	12,974	9,858	+3,116	open	—	01-27 17:39
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	16	$8.7K	6,658	3,300	+3,358	open	—	03-26 15:20
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	4	$8.6K	4,299	4,299	+0	open	—	02-14 04:55
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$8.0K	6,160	6,160	+0	open	—	02-28 19:05
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	68	$6.0K	3,099	3,098	+0	open	—	02-02 16:57
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$5.9K	3,021	3,021	+0	open	—	01-31 02:55
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	5	$5.5K	5,550	0	+5,550	open	—	02-28 07:33
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	1	$5.3K	5,402	0	+5,402	open	—	02-26 14:30
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	4	$5.2K	5,332	0	+5,332	open	—	02-25 09:19
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	3	$5.1K	5,241	0	+5,241	open	—	02-24 09:40
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	3	$5.1K	5,147	0	+5,147	open	—	02-23 12:20
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	1	$5.0K	5,075	0	+5,075	open	—	02-22 18:56
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	2	$4.7K	4,758	0	+4,758	open	—	02-18 09:22
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	1	$4.7K	4,716	0	+4,716	open	—	02-17 09:09
us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	2	$4.7K	4,683	0	+4,683	open	—	02-16 12:29
us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	1	$4.5K	4,524	0	+4,524	open	—	01-03 10:16
us strikes iran by february 11 2026 664	1	$4.5K	4,515	0	+4,515	open	—	02-11 16:09
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	1	$4.4K	4,395	0	+4,395	open	—	02-07 08:42
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	5	$4.3K	4,364	0	+4,364	open	—	02-06 09:56
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	14	$4.1K	4,135	0	+4,135	open	—	02-02 18:26
us strikes iran by february 12 2026 525	6	$3.9K	3,950	0	+3,950	open	—	02-12 18:53
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	8	$3.9K	3,954	0	+3,954	open	—	02-08 09:55
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$3.9K	4,014	0	+4,014	open	—	02-20 07:32
another us government shutdown by february 14	12	$3.8K	3,941	0	+3,941	open	—	02-14 04:57
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$3.4K	3,540	0	+3,540	open	—	02-27 08:31
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$3.4K	3,468	3,468	+0	open	—	04-08 05:24
will khamenei leave iran by jan 16 974	21	$3.2K	2,729	600	+2,129	open	—	01-16 08:08
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	3	$3.1K	3,143	0	+3,143	open	—	02-19 10:48
another us strike on venezuela on january 7	5	$3.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	01-08 22:27
us strikes iran by february 15 2026	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	02-15 15:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 16:05:04	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x1c9946…
06-07 16:04:55	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x55110b…
06-07 16:03:58	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	75	91¢	$68	0x4c11fc…
06-07 14:40:43	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	55	94¢	$52	0x3c2ebb…
06-07 14:39:36	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0xbded97…
06-05 21:48:58	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0xa26e96…
06-05 21:44:49	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	200	92¢	$183	0x93d113…
06-05 08:45:39	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	200	91¢	$183	0xc06e19…
06-05 08:39:03	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x47a206…
06-02 15:49:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	362	99¢	$359	0x4c35f6…
06-02 14:47:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$497	0xa87a79…
06-01 18:14:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xf0f4bd…
06-01 18:13:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x44028a…
05-30 23:34:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x39355f…
05-30 17:17:03	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$13	0x70ce61…
05-30 17:06:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	87	96¢	$83	0x9a534a…
05-29 18:41:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x6cdfcf…
05-29 18:41:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	98	91¢	$89	0x6bb903…
05-29 17:21:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x832746…
05-29 14:03:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	36	95¢	$34	0x9a567e…
05-29 12:44:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	21	95¢	$20	0xad84fc…
05-28 19:39:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x05d115…
05-28 14:19:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x4911cc…
05-28 14:18:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	25¢	$14	0x5d3748…
05-28 07:44:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	SELL	380	100¢	$379	0xe370a3…
05-27 18:44:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	180	98¢	$176	0x0e60e8…
05-27 18:22:01	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0xcddeee…
05-27 18:19:50	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0xa07390…
05-27 18:19:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x368928…
05-27 16:23:54	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0x5b48ad…
05-27 16:23:40	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0xbc2440…
05-27 16:16:33	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xc83d36…
05-27 16:12:29	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	0	36¢	$0	0xe7d3c9…
05-27 16:12:29	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0xdf8e38…
05-27 16:12:10	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	45	36¢	$16	0x809d91…
05-27 12:43:34	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xca3349…
05-27 09:13:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	86	98¢	$84	0xb1524a…
05-27 09:04:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x0595f1…
05-26 19:55:16	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x4bac54…
05-24 07:18:13	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	SELL	945	100¢	$944	0x34f012…
05-23 18:24:01	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x0fa545…
05-22 22:02:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	84¢	$84	0xd14d67…
05-22 21:13:10	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	BUY	215	92¢	$198	0x305b24…
05-22 18:26:48	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xc68921…
05-22 09:36:54	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	BUY	630	92¢	$580	0xb90a06…
05-21 19:56:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x15a1be…
05-20 18:56:31	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x93b2e8…
05-20 18:46:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xa3c623…
05-20 18:41:21	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x25b20e…
05-20 17:23:44	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	200	97¢	$195	0x3238e8…
05-20 16:47:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$195	0x1ac806…
05-20 16:36:27	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0xa111b5…
05-20 16:20:53	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x80ac64…
05-20 16:16:18	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x820403…
05-20 16:06:21	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xb01ed8…
05-20 16:04:52	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xf2aa1e…
05-20 15:01:05	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	79¢	$32	0x6a8a29…
05-20 14:38:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0xa374ee…
05-20 14:33:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	79¢	$32	0x8f91bb…
05-19 08:23:21	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x148add…
05-18 08:07:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xf484d4…
05-17 19:36:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	80	94¢	$76	0x9a7228…
05-17 19:13:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	110	96¢	$105	0x43a7f4…
05-17 18:46:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	235	96¢	$226	0x8d8a4f…
05-17 18:30:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	90	96¢	$86	0xc8a4a7…
05-17 18:29:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7042a1…
05-16 17:41:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xbfd583…
05-16 11:26:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	60	95¢	$57	0xfb42cb…
05-14 19:17:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x376e55…
05-13 17:32:31	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x4e111f…
05-13 17:10:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	300	97¢	$292	0xc314b8…
05-11 15:52:37	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	93	99¢	$92	0x7ea8d9…
05-10 11:12:50	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	71	95¢	$67	0x8fe355…
05-10 09:39:14	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	29	95¢	$28	0xdbdae5…
05-10 09:29:43	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	167	96¢	$162	0x898026…
05-10 09:23:11	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x18e9e1…
05-10 09:15:14	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0xd56e76…
05-10 07:48:20	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xd0065b…
05-07 19:24:15	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xea623d…
05-07 19:14:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x4dfdc1…
05-05 12:53:40	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xbacb74…
05-05 11:11:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x475cfb…
05-05 11:10:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	215	83¢	$178	0x2b43bd…
05-05 11:09:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb44225…
05-05 11:08:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	29	83¢	$24	0xf47614…
04-27 21:25:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	678	99¢	$668	0x02c4f9…
04-08 05:24:35	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	3,468	0¢	$10	0xbb7d7d…
04-04 12:23:39	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	993	99¢	$981	0x1a1455…
04-04 11:05:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	2,075	99¢	$2,053	0x9721e5…
04-03 14:10:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	400	98¢	$394	0x202f40…
03-26 15:20:07	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	1,672	89¢	$1,488	0xcdc11c…
03-26 12:09:29	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	1,500	99¢	$1,488	0x04d532…
03-23 11:06:07	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	1,686	88¢	$1,484	0x0d1799…
03-22 22:15:13	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	1,500	99¢	$1,484	0x766229…
03-22 18:13:17	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	70	88¢	$61	0x96d112…
03-19 13:06:59	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	1,500	97¢	$1,450	0x3aff96…
03-19 09:01:55	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	1,500	97¢	$1,458	0xa77890…
03-17 22:58:45	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	2,970	99¢	$2,952	0x7fb88d…
03-17 11:11:03	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	1,159	88¢	$1,020	0x8324d3…
03-17 11:06:37	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0xd7e9ec…