Outrageous-Mecca — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$540

Unrealized P&L

+$702

Hit rate

81.1%

Resolved

Trades

379

lifetime

Volume

$34.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$91

Open exposure

$4.10K

12 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 20:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Politics

75% 54% +$445

Other

25% 60% +$95

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	+3,212	$2,299	94¢	$3.0K	+$736	10-05 15:56
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+300	$261	96¢	$288	+$27	09-29 18:37
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+400	$342	67¢	$268	-$74	10-28 04:16
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	-187	-$159	96¢	$-179	-$20	08-03 05:25
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+379	$162	44¢	$168	+$6	10-11 06:51
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	+200	$124	38¢	$77	-$47	10-02 10:00
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	-700	-$52	4¢	$-30	+$22	05-16 16:35
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	-91	-$39	33¢	$-30	+$9	05-02 08:26
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	-9	-$6	84¢	$-8	-$2	07-11 17:14
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+1,000	$2	1¢	$6	+$4	09-02 08:07
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	-130	-$53	4¢	$-5	+$48	04-29 11:35
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+2,000	$9	0¢	$3	-$6	08-02 12:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	33	$4.8K	4,827	1,615	+3,212	open	—	10-05 15:56
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	3	$2.4K	2,540	0	+2,540	Yes	+$113	10-16 14:25
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	4	$2.4K	2,500	0	+2,500	Yes	+$87	10-10 18:45
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	2	$2.4K	2,500	0	+2,500	Yes	+$100	10-19 19:35
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	5	$2.3K	2,400	0	+2,400	Yes	+$142	10-29 20:37
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	28	$2.2K	2,218	2,218	+0	Bibi	-$221	10-28 04:14
netanyahu out by march 31 854	4	$1.8K	944	944	+0	No	+$38	04-02 16:50
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	7	$1.6K	1,100	1,100	+0	No	+$50	07-25 07:15
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$1.1K	596	596	+0	Yes	+$100	02-28 07:44
Netanyahu out by April 30?	3	$1.0K	528	528	+0	No	+$13	04-12 17:52
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	5	$1.0K	780	780	+0	No	+$11	01-11 12:03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	1	$920	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$80	10-23 15:52
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	5	$805	800	491	+309	open	—	10-28 04:16
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	2	$783	890	0	+890	Yes	+$107	09-30 09:48
will israel launch a major ground offensive in gaza by march 31	7	$712	436	301	+135	No	+$6	03-30 04:06
israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	25	$577	1,148	1,051	+97	No	+$49	03-02 08:39
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	5	$571	785	405	+379	open	—	10-11 06:51
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 632	3	$459	300	300	+0	open	—	07-20 05:32
israel closes its airspace by august 15	3	$434	300	300	+0	No	+$50	07-27 08:19
israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by march 31 2026 824	13	$432	76	452	-375	No	-$63	01-27 19:16
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	4	$314	300	130	+170	open	—	09-29 18:37
will israel take military action in gaza on march 18 2026	6	$298	165	165	+0	Yes	+$33	03-20 10:55
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$293	200	200	+0	Yes	+$107	03-02 10:07
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	4	$261	300	300	+0	No	-$9	06-19 10:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$258	200	200	+0	No	-$2	05-07 16:00
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	4	$228	300	300	+0	No	-$42	06-07 19:29
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$201	200	200	+0	Yes	+$37	06-12 14:16
will israel conduct military action in greater beirut on march 29 2026	5	$191	5,147	0	+5,147	No	-$191	04-05 18:36
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	1	$159	0	187	-187	open	—	08-03 05:25
will israel strike lebanon on january 25 2026	11	$153	200	100	+100	Yes	-$81	01-25 10:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 20:37:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,201	94¢	$1,134	0x533e73…
10-29 20:03:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	568	94¢	$536	0x3d758f…
10-29 19:52:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	84	94¢	$80	0x81185a…
10-29 19:42:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	446	94¢	$421	0xf1d7a2…
10-28 04:16:01	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	400	53¢	$212	0xa2939e…
10-28 04:14:59	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	554	1¢	$3	0x0f07ee…
10-27 18:28:54	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x00f96e…
10-27 18:26:05	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x025e90…
10-27 18:25:27	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xce8cc8…
10-27 18:25:27	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xc8e646…
10-27 18:25:27	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0xc51768…
10-27 18:25:27	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xb70af1…
10-27 18:25:27	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x731032…
10-27 18:25:26	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xbc5273…
10-27 18:25:18	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	170	70¢	$119	0x473f4f…
10-27 18:23:26	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	223	70¢	$156	0x9a9d99…
10-27 11:07:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	500	73¢	$365	0x55536e…
10-27 08:36:35	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	971	54¢	$524	0x53ec02…
10-27 08:35:48	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	34	54¢	$18	0x9cefa3…
10-27 08:12:27	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0xc4348f…
10-27 07:55:18	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x45decf…
10-27 07:49:06	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	34	54¢	$18	0x67fdf8…
10-27 07:39:03	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x4cf72c…
10-27 07:39:02	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	56	54¢	$30	0xd9f0e6…
10-26 22:13:11	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xbb0edb…
10-26 22:02:41	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	807	59¢	$476	0xa58452…
10-26 21:57:45	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	29	59¢	$17	0x01d4a0…
10-26 21:54:06	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	82	59¢	$48	0xf08009…
10-26 05:52:24	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	700	46¢	$322	0xdbb2d1…
10-24 07:02:05	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	346	58¢	$200	0xde5577…
10-23 15:52:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0xf015cf…
10-23 13:25:20	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0xdf8a6b…
10-23 12:43:56	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xfc138d…
10-23 12:41:02	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0xf8813b…
10-23 12:02:12	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0xd7a5b2…
10-19 19:35:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	2,246	96¢	$2,156	0x283b5e…
10-19 19:34:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	254	96¢	$244	0x197197…
10-18 19:40:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x907b90…
10-16 14:25:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	412	96¢	$394	0x25dd04…
10-16 14:18:43	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	2,088	96¢	$1,996	0x93b91f…
10-15 18:03:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x5395f9…
10-13 05:55:00	Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	3,400	1¢	$24	0x7baf65…
10-11 06:51:08	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	92	41¢	$38	0x0a9941…
10-11 00:34:13	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	108	41¢	$44	0x4d2a07…
10-10 18:45:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	121	96¢	$117	0x757a9a…
10-10 18:42:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	2,000	96¢	$1,930	0x9bb424…
10-10 18:25:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0xa100c2…
10-10 18:11:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	350	96¢	$338	0x9a0f42…
10-06 08:22:22	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xe5a6cd…
10-06 07:43:19	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x3d25ab…
10-05 15:56:02	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	BUY	347	87¢	$302	0xe1e42e…
10-05 12:12:16	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xcd20fb…
10-05 09:10:32	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0xb6e588…
10-04 16:19:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	58	63¢	$37	0x081d69…
10-04 16:12:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	242	63¢	$152	0xecaa54…
10-02 10:00:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x4e519f…
10-02 03:47:32	Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3,400	1¢	$24	0x087d9b…
10-01 10:38:44	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	86¢	$860	0xaf46e8…
09-30 11:55:35	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	150	84¢	$126	0x9b7042…
09-30 09:48:02	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	90	96¢	$87	0xd2edc5…
09-30 09:00:02	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	179	44¢	$79	0x5c3b0b…
09-29 18:37:18	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	300	87¢	$261	0x079bad…
09-29 10:48:18	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	119	84¢	$100	0x4979e1…
09-29 09:58:18	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0xec93aa…
09-29 02:56:51	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	9	84¢	$7	0xd38bfd…
09-28 14:53:53	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x746093…
09-28 14:18:47	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x537be6…
09-28 10:10:51	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x3c997b…
09-28 09:43:24	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0x370346…
09-17 14:23:19	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	405	50¢	$204	0x882329…
09-16 07:08:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	800	87¢	$696	0x5545b8…
09-14 22:33:33	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	715	79¢	$565	0x07bff3…
09-12 15:38:13	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 13?	No	BUY	40	33¢	$13	0x358242…
09-07 19:48:52	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	405	51¢	$206	0x5966a5…
09-02 08:07:03	Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0xb2a096…
08-26 03:23:06	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	44	73¢	$32	0x26b2b3…
08-26 03:22:52	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x65c7d8…
08-26 03:22:51	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	137	73¢	$100	0x29a966…
08-26 00:30:54	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	137	73¢	$100	0xd45480…
08-25 23:09:10	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0x8c24fb…
08-25 23:09:10	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x8c184b…
08-25 23:09:07	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	271	73¢	$198	0x1ba62c…
08-03 05:25:47	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	400	38¢	$152	0xd7f121…
08-03 05:25:15	Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	187	85¢	$159	0xea205d…
08-02 12:15:32	Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	800	0¢	$3	0x172e8b…
07-30 18:36:06	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	82	56¢	$46	0x317b26…
07-30 18:34:08	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x14aae3…
07-30 18:03:41	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	68	56¢	$38	0xaa0bdf…
07-30 15:02:05	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	23	56¢	$13	0xcef66e…
07-30 11:11:09	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	138	61¢	$84	0x615a33…
07-30 10:55:38	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	135	61¢	$82	0xae1366…
07-30 10:20:47	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	87	61¢	$53	0x564196…
07-30 05:02:05	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	700	83¢	$581	0xdafdb6…
07-27 08:19:12	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	300	81¢	$242	0x07415b…
07-25 07:15:16	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	350	81¢	$284	0xa51cf0…
07-25 07:11:22	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	350	81¢	$284	0xf7f834…
07-24 06:34:18	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	300	64¢	$192	0x8bc996…
07-23 10:16:40	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	400	69¢	$276	0x90df89…
07-23 09:37:52	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x9f0288…
07-22 16:34:36	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	300	77¢	$231	0x28b4f6…