Small-Reliability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$21

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$25.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$508

Open exposure

$1.16K

1 position

First seen

2026-04-14

last 07-22 21:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 100% +$21

Politics

23% — —

Other

14% — —

Sports

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+1,171	$1,160	99¢	$1.2K	+$4	07-22 21:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$2.3K	1,148	1,148	+0	open	—	07-07 13:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1	$1.2K	1,171	0	+1,171	open	—	07-22 21:21
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	1	$1.1K	1,130	0	+1,130	open	—	06-06 09:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	1	$1.0K	1,056	0	+1,056	open	—	05-27 01:47
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$1.0K	1,050	0	+1,050	open	—	05-28 01:00
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	1	$1.0K	1,055	0	+1,055	open	—	05-24 17:08
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?	1	$1.0K	1,023	0	+1,023	open	—	05-19 14:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?	1	$1.0K	1,022	0	+1,022	open	—	05-18 11:53
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 10?	1	$999	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$1	05-09 14:26
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11?	1	$999	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$1	05-11 14:40
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8?	1	$997	999	0	+999	No	+$2	05-08 15:10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7?	1	$993	996	0	+996	No	+$3	05-07 14:37
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6?	6	$991	995	0	+995	Yes	+$4	05-06 03:48
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4?	1	$986	987	0	+987	open	—	05-03 22:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5?	2	$983	988	0	+988	Yes	+$5	05-04 20:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	2	$968	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-21 13:53
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	1	$918	987	0	+987	open	—	04-24 16:53
bitcoin above 78k on april 21	1	$908	919	0	+919	open	—	04-21 14:10
bitcoin above 70k on april 17	1	$901	906	0	+906	open	—	04-16 19:36
bitcoin above 70k on april 16	1	$900	903	0	+903	open	—	04-15 20:21
bitcoin above 78k on april 15	1	$893	904	0	+904	open	—	04-14 19:26
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	1	$719	730	0	+730	open	—	06-17 16:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	1	$454	455	0	+455	open	—	05-12 21:11
bitcoin above 70k on april 19	1	$449	450	0	+450	open	—	04-18 14:26
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?	1	$350	351	0	+351	open	—	05-13 22:28
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 13?	1	$250	255	0	+255	No	+$5	05-12 21:17
bitcoin above 54k on june 26 2026	1	$218	219	0	+219	open	—	06-25 19:03
Will Qatar reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	1	$200	201	0	+201	open	—	06-17 16:29
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$198	200	0	+200	open	—	06-17 18:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$197	200	0	+200	open	—	05-12 21:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 21:21:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,171	99¢	$1,160	0x3c63a8…
07-07 13:22:53	bitcoin above 60k on july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa92b96…
07-07 13:22:05	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x74d133…
07-07 13:20:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,148	100¢	$1,147	0xc192a4…
07-02 14:58:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,148	100¢	$1,146	0xe84663…
06-25 19:03:22	bitcoin above 54k on june 26 2026	Yes	BUY	219	100¢	$218	0x47995e…
06-17 18:39:49	Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	180	99¢	$178	0xb14c4c…
06-17 16:30:25	Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x89f1e4…
06-17 16:29:47	Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	730	99¢	$719	0x040cd2…
06-17 16:29:28	Will Qatar reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	201	99¢	$200	0x262722…
06-06 09:02:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	1,130	98¢	$1,112	0x7f0e32…
06-03 16:09:49	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$9	0x0400e7…
05-31 22:00:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	60	99¢	$60	0x8a9e9a…
05-28 01:00:03	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	912	98¢	$894	0x369ec0…
05-28 00:47:50	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	98	98¢	$96	0xc119ff…
05-28 00:28:26	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$40	0xadd328…
05-27 01:56:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x786951…
05-27 01:56:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xe62d78…
05-27 01:47:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1,056	99¢	$1,050	0x635b76…
05-24 17:08:19	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	1,055	97¢	$1,023	0xa73faf…
05-21 13:53:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	246	97¢	$238	0xbd5ac6…
05-21 13:52:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	754	97¢	$730	0xd724a6…
05-19 14:46:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	1,023	100¢	$1,022	0xc91416…
05-18 11:53:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	1,022	99¢	$1,013	0x566e8d…
05-13 22:28:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	351	100¢	$350	0x370478…
05-12 21:17:48	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 13?	No	BUY	255	98¢	$250	0x582ddc…
05-12 21:12:04	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x8445fc…
05-12 21:11:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x457e3a…
05-12 21:11:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	455	100¢	$454	0x4adc4d…
05-11 14:40:04	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xe9838b…
05-09 14:26:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 10?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xb7d117…
05-08 15:10:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8?	No	BUY	999	100¢	$997	0xcbc372…
05-07 14:37:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7?	No	BUY	996	100¢	$993	0x15ea3b…
05-06 03:48:46	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	174	100¢	$173	0x402ff0…
05-06 03:25:12	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x2889da…
05-06 03:24:48	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x0e441f…
05-06 03:24:42	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x203b8b…
05-06 01:28:42	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x5134b7…
05-06 01:28:26	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	525	100¢	$523	0xa52ac9…
05-04 20:39:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	721	100¢	$717	0x438c19…
05-04 19:29:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	267	99¢	$265	0x828ac3…
05-03 22:25:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	987	100¢	$986	0xb3ccf2…
04-24 16:53:52	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	987	93¢	$918	0x1ddceb…
04-21 14:10:38	bitcoin above 78k on april 21	No	BUY	919	99¢	$908	0xa82733…
04-18 14:26:54	bitcoin above 70k on april 19	Yes	BUY	450	100¢	$449	0xb879fb…
04-16 19:36:42	bitcoin above 70k on april 17	Yes	BUY	906	99¢	$901	0x2e7108…
04-15 20:21:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xa0cf51…
04-15 20:21:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3e2c2d…
04-15 20:21:22	bitcoin above 70k on april 16	Yes	BUY	903	100¢	$900	0x8102ef…
04-14 19:26:26	bitcoin above 78k on april 15	No	BUY	904	99¢	$893	0xa8a0c9…