Whirlwind-Specification — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$971

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

45.6%

Resolved

Trades

103

lifetime

Volume

$4.20K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 10-12 18:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Other

76% 35% -$454

Politics

19% 29% -$467

Pop-Culture

3% 100% +$55

Crypto

1% 0% -$61

Sports

1% 0% -$45

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+100	$10	2¢	$2	-$8	07-05 18:57
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes		-200	-$6	0¢	$-0	+$6	05-14 00:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Canada recession before 2027?	22	$559	1,045	0	+1,045	Yes	+$486	05-29 14:47
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	3	$530	500	500	+0	Yes	+$40	05-24 18:55
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	3	$425	844	0	+844	Yes	-$425	10-12 18:46
will project hail mary opening weekend box office be greater than 90m	2	$332	755	755	+0	No	-$68	03-13 20:54
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	10	$217	404	404	+0	Yes	-$216	03-06 21:03
will nathalie sinclair desgagn win the by election for the seat of terrebone in the house of commons of canada	2	$172	412	0	+412	No	-$172	04-04 15:42
will project hail mary score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	4	$169	101	101	+0	Yes	+$27	03-16 09:01
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$167	200	200	+0	No	-$157	03-31 03:03
Will AJ Brown be traded?	3	$136	200	200	+0	Yes	+$36	03-25 01:36
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$126	66	100	-34	Yes	-$8	03-16 01:57
will sinners win 3 or fewer awards at the oscars	2	$115	100	100	+0	No	+$55	03-16 01:38
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	2	$108	64	64	+0	Yes	+$8	03-03 23:13
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	1	$100	213	0	+213	No	-$100	07-05 18:54
will a candidate win outright in the texas gop senate primary	7	$100	0	100	-100	No	$0	03-04 13:00
will the state of the union be 100 minutes or longer	1	$88	120	0	+120	Yes	+$32	02-25 00:36
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	1	$80	0	200	-200	Yes	-$120	04-30 16:37
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	4	$79	100	0	+100	Yes	+$21	04-08 21:03
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$69	1,708	1,708	+0	No	-$11	04-30 16:39
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	1	$66	200	0	+200	No	-$66	03-02 00:41
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	2	$65	100	100	+0	No	-$61	04-04 14:22
will bitcoin outperform gold in march 2026	2	$61	100	0	+100	Yes	-$61	02-28 22:00
will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	1	$52	100	0	+100	No	+$48	03-03 01:41
will the state of the union be 110 minutes or longer	1	$51	100	0	+100	No	-$51	02-25 00:15
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage	4	$40	58	30	+28	Leviatán Esports	+$27	06-07 16:26
tony gonzalez out as us rep by march 31	3	$40	100	0	+100	No	-$40	02-25 09:27
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?	3	$40	321	321	+0	No	-$39	04-27 19:37
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	1	$32	100	0	+100	No	-$32	03-15 23:48
will there be at least 1050 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026	1	$31	40	0	+40	Yes	+$9	02-22 17:01
will newmont nem q2 total attributable gold production be above 1200 koz 20260703220112339	1	$27	100	0	+100	Yes	-$27	07-04 20:44
nba phi nop 2026 02 21	1	$25	32	0	+32	Pelicans	-$25	02-22 01:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 18:46:50	Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	No	BUY	325	26¢	$85	0xbf154d…
07-05 18:57:07	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x29c4ed…
07-05 18:54:16	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0xc8289f…
07-05 18:20:37	Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	52	31¢	$16	0x6354b8…
07-04 20:44:52	will newmont nem q2 total attributable gold production be above 1200 koz 20260703220112339	No	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x0392f5…
06-07 16:26:30	val lev1 ge1 2026 06 07	Leviatán Esports	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xf6152a…
06-07 16:23:43	val lev1 ge1 2026 06 07	Global Esports	SELL	30	66¢	$20	0xa4481a…
06-07 14:37:34	val fs1 fut1 2026 06 07	FULL SENSE	BUY	26	27¢	$7	0xfe95dd…
06-06 22:09:37	Will NRG win Valorant Masters London 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x8c1ccd…
06-02 04:52:38	Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage	Global Esports	BUY	28	34¢	$9	0x89402b…
06-01 04:31:21	Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage	Global Esports	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x472f67…
05-31 20:58:01	Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2	LOUD	BUY	68	22¢	$15	0x5352de…
05-29 14:59:38	Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	No	BUY	436	69¢	$300	0x69bbe9…
05-29 14:54:02	Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	No	BUY	83	48¢	$40	0x2ec5b7…
05-29 14:47:28	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	435	69¢	$300	0x931746…
05-24 18:55:07	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	57¢	$285	0xe96744…
05-24 18:42:54	Spread: Thunder (-3.5)	Thunder	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x589581…
05-24 18:07:26	Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	Leviatán Esports	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0xbe5c3b…
05-14 01:07:06	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xc1e10b…
05-14 00:54:39	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	BUY	480	49¢	$235	0xb2f96f…
05-14 00:39:08	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0x5b0fed…
04-30 16:39:14	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,708	2¢	$29	0x819104…
04-30 16:37:36	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	40¢	$80	0xcf79ba…
04-30 16:36:52	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,708	2¢	$40	0x9ac8a4…
04-27 19:37:46	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?	Yes	SELL	321	0¢	$1	0xcdd9a2…
04-08 21:03:35	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	41	79¢	$32	0x14499e…
04-08 20:52:55	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0x6977f5…
04-08 20:44:33	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	21	79¢	$16	0xd312e1…
04-08 20:13:53	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	79¢	$12	0x67704c…
04-04 15:42:43	will nathalie sinclair desgagn win the by election for the seat of terrebone in the house of commons of canada	Yes	BUY	400	42¢	$168	0x30ec3b…
04-04 15:31:35	will nathalie sinclair desgagn win the by election for the seat of terrebone in the house of commons of canada	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x588fcd…
04-04 14:22:37	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x35c6fe…
03-31 03:03:43	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$5	0xf077a5…
03-25 01:52:47	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	94	43¢	$40	0x304d07…
03-25 01:36:47	Will AJ Brown be traded?	Yes	SELL	100	31¢	$31	0xe88478…
03-18 22:41:17	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	Yes	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x3fb99a…
03-17 02:39:31	Will AJ Brown be traded?	Yes	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0xcdc0bc…
03-16 21:46:01	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?	Yes	BUY	121	11¢	$13	0xcb2ba7…
03-16 09:01:59	will project hail mary score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0x2255f5…
03-16 08:34:49	will project hail mary score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	SELL	18	97¢	$18	0x360c2a…
03-16 05:16:21	will project hail mary score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	SELL	48	97¢	$46	0xb7a1d8…
03-16 01:57:59	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x68ad35…
03-16 01:38:25	will sinners win 3 or fewer awards at the oscars	Yes	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x8cd036…
03-15 23:51:49	will sinners win 3 or fewer awards at the oscars	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xe7127d…
03-15 23:48:15	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0xd9a924…
03-13 20:54:35	will project hail mary opening weekend box office be greater than 90m	Yes	SELL	755	17¢	$132	0xcfde19…
03-12 01:35:45	will project hail mary opening weekend box office be greater than 90m	Yes	BUY	755	26¢	$200	0x76d431…
03-06 21:03:09	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	No	SELL	404	0¢	$0	0x394c7e…
03-05 18:38:29	Will AJ Brown be traded?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xf00a2e…
03-04 13:00:49	will a candidate win outright in the texas gop senate primary	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x1b12ca…
03-04 12:57:09	will a candidate win outright in the texas gop senate primary	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xdd438b…
03-04 12:03:33	will a candidate win outright in the texas gop senate primary	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xdde7b8…
03-04 12:03:33	will a candidate win outright in the texas gop senate primary	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xd37201…
03-04 12:03:29	will a candidate win outright in the texas gop senate primary	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x8b2990…
03-04 12:03:23	will a candidate win outright in the texas gop senate primary	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd5880a…
03-04 11:54:37	will a candidate win outright in the texas gop senate primary	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x281d0c…
03-04 00:09:09	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0x06704c…
03-03 23:13:13	will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	Yes	SELL	64	91¢	$58	0xbebbc3…
03-03 01:41:45	will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xf28d93…
03-02 16:37:21	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0xbfbcc7…
03-02 00:41:01	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0xf1f265…
03-01 16:32:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x427089…
03-01 16:24:59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	60	33¢	$20	0x61ffed…
03-01 16:24:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	16	34¢	$5	0x24bd21…
03-01 16:22:03	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0x1d145e…
03-01 12:48:25	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x89b097…
03-01 12:48:23	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xa05ce8…
03-01 12:44:05	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xe9b0c5…
03-01 10:27:51	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x05b92b…
03-01 09:52:59	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x9be298…
03-01 09:49:59	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x5affcd…
03-01 09:48:25	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x5bcd59…
03-01 09:44:05	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xcc6240…
03-01 09:29:15	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xc4d08a…
03-01 09:27:29	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x5bf31a…
03-01 09:16:17	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xc4f758…
03-01 09:03:11	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xcb3288…
03-01 08:52:59	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xeeefe6…
03-01 06:21:23	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x2d11d4…
03-01 01:35:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xeb9ea5…
02-28 22:00:19	will bitcoin outperform gold in march 2026	No	BUY	97	61¢	$59	0x0ecd06…
02-28 18:39:59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xa37ead…
02-28 18:15:21	will bitcoin outperform gold in march 2026	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xe0d9c3…
02-28 18:14:51	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	12	60¢	$8	0x98ca59…
02-28 18:08:41	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	38	60¢	$22	0x0155ee…
02-28 17:35:29	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x13c3fb…
02-27 18:02:43	will canadas february 2026 unemployment rate be 6pt3	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x447df1…
02-27 17:40:57	will project hail mary score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	BUY	101	70¢	$71	0xe47d92…
02-27 13:51:21	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	47	45¢	$21	0xbd91a7…
02-27 13:48:55	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	28	43¢	$12	0xec68f3…
02-27 13:46:47	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x017e34…
02-27 13:45:59	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	58	42¢	$24	0x37c07b…
02-25 09:27:50	tony gonzalez out as us rep by march 31	Yes	BUY	40	40¢	$16	0xa42a93…
02-25 06:17:32	tony gonzalez out as us rep by march 31	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x55cf9d…
02-25 06:17:20	tony gonzalez out as us rep by march 31	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x6e891c…
02-25 00:36:40	will the state of the union be 100 minutes or longer	Yes	BUY	120	73¢	$88	0xff979c…
02-25 00:15:20	will the state of the union be 110 minutes or longer	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x1b5cba…
02-24 00:37:58	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0xdb7244…
02-24 00:26:16	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0xc4c068…
02-22 20:03:52	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	66	42¢	$28	0x25aa2b…