Fatal-Subsection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.54K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 07-28 06:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

77% — —

Politics

15% 100% +$0

Tech

4% — —

Crypto

3% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 140 159	1	$147	147	+147	open	—	02-13 11:33
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 200 219	1	$147	147	+147	open	—	02-09 07:06
will the ecb announce no change at the february 2026 meeting	1	$147	147	+147	open	—	02-03 06:48
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	1	$147	147	+147	open	—	01-30 02:55
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$146	147	+147	open	—	01-26 08:31
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 200 219	1	$145	145	+145	open	—	03-08 03:02
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 300 319	1	$145	145	+145	open	—	01-25 11:14
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 100 119	1	$145	146	+146	open	—	03-02 07:09
elon musk of tweets january 2026 1280 1319	1	$145	145	+145	open	—	01-17 03:15
elon musk of tweets march 2026 1040 1079	1	$145	145	+145	open	—	03-23 08:57
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$145	145	+145	open	—	03-18 11:14
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 100 119	1	$143	143	+143	open	—	03-11 02:23
elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 0 39	1	$143	143	+143	open	—	03-27 09:44
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	1	$140	141	+141	open	—	03-14 10:48
will israel strike gaza on january 15 2026	1	$134	145	+145	open	—	01-16 03:33
will israel strike lebanon on january 12 2026	1	$132	133	+133	open	—	01-13 03:56
elon musk of tweets january 10 january 12 90 114	1	$122	132	+132	open	—	01-12 09:49
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 220 239	1	$121	121	+121	open	—	04-13 06:48
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 340 359	1	$121	121	+121	open	—	04-03 09:22
will mrbeasts latest video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 4	1	$121	121	+121	open	—	04-08 09:00
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	1	$121	121	+121	open	—	04-28 02:11
donald trump of truth social posts april 17 april 24 140 159	1	$121	121	+121	open	—	04-22 07:08
bitcoin above 82k on april 18	1	$120	120	+120	open	—	04-18 06:56
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	1	$113	113	+113	open	—	03-31 09:58
will avatar fire and ash 3rd weekend box office be less than 40m	1	$111	116	+116	open	—	01-05 04:01
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 500 519	1	$110	114	+114	open	—	01-09 06:19
macron out by july 31 2026 20260626155530286	1	$33	33	+33	open	—	07-28 06:46
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 520 539	1	$6	8	+8	open	—	01-09 06:19
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1	$3	3	+3	open	—	03-23 08:57
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	1	$2	2	+2	open	—	03-14 10:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-28 06:46:16	macron out by july 31 2026 20260626155530286	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xf9a4be…
05-12 09:04:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x230aae…
05-12 09:03:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7f0089…
05-12 09:03:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5f851e…
05-12 09:03:44	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3a5dca…
05-12 09:03:39	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6246ce…
05-12 09:03:34	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9cd77b…
05-12 09:03:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x622871…
05-12 09:03:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1ff73f…
05-12 09:02:59	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xcdcb68…
04-28 02:11:26	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0xc52641…
04-22 07:08:28	donald trump of truth social posts april 17 april 24 140 159	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0x0b5b0c…
04-18 06:56:12	bitcoin above 82k on april 18	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xfaa66b…
04-18 06:55:54	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 140 164	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x7f6095…
04-13 06:48:33	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 220 239	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0x21b8b4…
04-08 09:00:53	will mrbeasts latest video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 4	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0xdd49a9…
04-03 09:22:47	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 340 359	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0xefcca3…
03-31 09:58:17	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	No	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x160dae…
03-27 09:44:55	will uk strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5360e4…
03-27 09:44:49	elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 0 39	No	BUY	143	100¢	$143	0x18d809…
03-23 08:57:19	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe0f96f…
03-23 08:57:11	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1040 1079	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x2d9830…
03-18 11:14:13	will the ecb announce no change at the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x004330…
03-18 11:14:07	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x8e0ebd…
03-14 10:48:29	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xbe4cc7…
03-14 10:48:21	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x0858e6…
03-14 10:48:09	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	No	BUY	141	99¢	$140	0xc618a9…
03-11 02:24:07	will the reserve bank of australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the march meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb435c5…
03-11 02:23:53	bank of england increases interest rates after march 2026 meeting 393	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1b8d6c…
03-11 02:23:47	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 100 119	No	BUY	143	100¢	$143	0xf013d6…
03-08 03:02:31	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1f22fa…
03-08 03:02:25	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 200 219	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x306dd4…
03-02 07:11:41	will nvidia be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc9d5c9…
03-02 07:11:35	will alphabet be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xc9ca71…
03-02 07:09:15	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 100 119	No	BUY	146	99¢	$145	0x000dc7…
02-13 11:33:15	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 140 159	No	BUY	147	100¢	$147	0x0dfe56…
02-09 07:06:01	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 200 219	No	BUY	147	100¢	$147	0x118124…
02-03 06:48:46	will the ecb announce no change at the february 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	147	100¢	$147	0xc878af…
01-30 02:55:56	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	Yes	BUY	147	100¢	$147	0x809225…
01-26 08:31:03	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	147	99¢	$146	0xf01ad1…
01-25 11:14:40	elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 300 319	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x754845…
01-17 03:15:20	elon musk of tweets january 2026 1280 1319	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x01e9a8…
01-16 03:33:20	will israel strike gaza on january 15 2026	Yes	BUY	145	92¢	$134	0x3b2e7d…
01-13 03:56:51	will israel strike lebanon on january 12 2026	No	BUY	133	99¢	$132	0xd8e768…
01-12 09:49:36	elon musk of tweets january 10 january 12 90 114	No	BUY	132	92¢	$122	0x365bb9…
01-09 06:19:52	elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 520 539	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xf4eb20…
01-09 06:19:46	elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 500 519	No	BUY	114	97¢	$110	0xaf3fd7…
01-05 04:01:21	will avatar fire and ash 3rd weekend box office be less than 40m	No	BUY	116	96¢	$111	0xe47888…