Oily-Disposer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$158

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

83.2%

Resolved

284

Trades

1,008

lifetime

Volume

$3.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-27

last 10-25 16:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 74 days

Categories

Crypto

50% 76% +$147

Other

30% 34% +$27

Politics

19% 20% -$9

Tech

0% 19% -$3

Sports

0% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No		-5	-$4	88¢	$-4	-$1	05-14 09:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET	1	$530	535	0	+535	Up	+$5	10-23 21:00
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	8	$263	470	470	+0	No	+$104	05-14 11:24
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	9	$112	60	60	+0	Yes	+$3	05-14 09:40
Ethereum Up or Down on October 12?	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	10-12 16:01
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on October 25?	1	$100	105	0	+105	Yes	+$5	10-25 16:00
will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	2	$100	100	100	+0	No	+$96	09-03 19:51
Will Chainlink reach $20 in September?	1	$99	100	0	+100	No	+$1	10-01 04:00
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in September?	1	$99	100	0	+100	No	+$1	10-01 04:00
Will Ethena reach $0.32 in September?	1	$99	100	0	+100	No	+$1	10-01 04:00
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-06-06?	3	$84	44	44	+0	Yes	+$4	06-06 09:31
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$81	60	60	+0	Yes	-$14	06-05 01:44
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?	2	$71	36	36	+0	Yes	+$1	06-06 16:17
Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	4	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$1	09-06 13:12
Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine end in a draw?	4	$57	44	44	+0	Yes	-$20	06-06 17:12
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	12	$53	5,350	5,350	+0	No	+$10	06-03 17:33
BNB Up or Down on October 5?	2	$50	59	0	+59	Up	+$9	10-05 16:27
Ethereum Up or Down on October 5?	1	$50	51	0	+51	Down	+$1	10-05 16:00
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	1	$50	52	0	+52	Up	+$2	10-05 16:00
Ethereum Up or Down on October 1?	1	$50	51	0	+51	Up	+$1	10-01 16:01
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	2	$45	24	24	+0	No	+$3	06-13 03:30
HYPE Up or Down on October 6?	1	$44	45	0	+45	Down	+$1	10-06 16:01
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	4	$44	50	30	+20	Yes	-$4	07-04 18:39
will cap launch a token by june 30 2026	2	$43	23	23	+0	Yes	+$2	06-24 03:36
Trump renames AI by September 30?	2	$41	39	39	+0	Yes	+$0	09-22 16:01
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?	3	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$1	06-16 17:10
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale?	3	$39	40	40	+0	No	-$1	05-18 21:23
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-06?	5	$38	19	19	+0	Yes	+$0	06-06 18:45
Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 6PM ET	1	$38	38	0	+38	Down	+$0	10-03 23:00
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale?	3	$37	40	40	+0	No	+$3	06-02 05:01
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06?	2	$36	19	19	+0	Yes	+$2	06-06 20:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 16:00:02	Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on October 25?	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xeff522…
10-23 21:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	535	99¢	$530	0xe9801f…
10-23 16:00:02	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on October 23?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd6e46d…
10-12 16:01:02	Ethereum Up or Down on October 12?	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x0f8464…
10-11 16:00:03	Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on October 11?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x295289…
10-11 08:35:42	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 10?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x98b42c…
10-11 08:33:36	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on October 10?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x3c5fe0…
10-11 08:31:18	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on October 10?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x640a10…
10-11 08:31:16	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on October 10?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x565841…
10-11 08:31:16	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on October 10?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x35b833…
10-10 16:01:03	HYPE Up or Down on October 10?	Up	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x3b5597…
10-10 15:00:03	Ethereum above 2,510 on October 10, 11AM ET?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x34ebca…
10-09 16:00:02	Will the price of Solana be above $110 on October 9?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0xf1c4e9…
10-09 16:00:02	Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on October 9?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0fcbf9…
10-06 16:01:03	Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on October 6?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0xeaefe8…
10-06 16:01:02	HYPE Up or Down on October 6?	Down	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x87dd1b…
10-05 16:27:20	bnb up or down on october 5 2026	Up	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xb1cc94…
10-05 16:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Up	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xaa80e1…
10-05 16:00:02	BNB Up or Down on October 5?	Up	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x9d566c…
10-05 16:00:02	Ethereum Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x429858…
10-03 23:00:02	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x958d83…
10-01 16:01:02	Ethereum Up or Down on October 1?	Up	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xa3acfd…
10-01 04:00:02	Will Chainlink reach $18 in September?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xffd90a…
10-01 04:00:02	Will Chainlink dip to $8 in September?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xed230c…
10-01 04:00:02	Will Chainlink dip to $10 in September?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xec2ec1…
10-01 04:00:02	Will Chainlink dip to $6 in September?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xad1148…
10-01 04:00:02	Will Chainlink reach $16 in September?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x9d6a47…
10-01 04:00:02	Will Chainlink reach $20 in September?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x7a91a4…
10-01 04:00:02	Will Ethena reach $0.32 in September?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x566df0…
09-27 16:00:02	xrp up or down september 27 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x2a8eb9…
09-23 20:00:04	HYPE Up or Down - September 23, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x007f3d…
09-22 18:05:16	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x702e62…
09-22 18:05:04	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x25649d…
09-22 17:59:19	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xf93d7b…
09-22 17:59:19	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0xd9f9d9…
09-22 17:59:19	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x8753aa…
09-22 17:59:19	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	141	0¢	$0	0x6f8fd0…
09-22 17:59:19	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	0¢	$0	0x56db36…
09-22 17:59:19	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x2b7ceb…
09-22 17:59:13	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xd1016f…
09-22 17:59:07	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x6376e5…
09-22 17:58:58	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x021b84…
09-22 17:53:39	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x0d292a…
09-22 17:50:00	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0xd8d1d8…
09-22 17:49:04	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xe59529…
09-22 17:49:04	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	0¢	$0	0x64219a…
09-22 17:49:04	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x2f9be7…
09-22 17:49:04	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	0¢	$0	0x0abcc2…
09-22 17:48:36	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x0664e8…
09-22 17:48:09	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x390b06…
09-22 17:45:33	Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x3f8be5…
09-22 17:45:06	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x5eff2c…
09-22 17:45:04	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xdf06a3…
09-22 16:27:57	Will there be no next Claude Opus model release by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	0¢	$0	0x467bbe…
09-22 16:27:55	Will there be no next Claude Opus model release by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x1d025d…
09-22 16:27:51	Will there be no next Claude Opus model release by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	302	0¢	$0	0x38e94e…
09-22 16:26:55	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x38591d…
09-22 16:01:18	Trump renames AI by September 30?	Yes	SELL	39	53¢	$21	0x4dfd71…
09-22 15:56:16	Trump renames AI by September 30?	Yes	BUY	39	52¢	$20	0x6cc01a…
09-21 21:06:03	Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?	No	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0x1a28bb…
09-21 16:23:40	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0xfb2d2e…
09-21 16:12:41	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x11adbf…
09-21 16:11:10	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xf00f81…
09-21 16:11:10	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x73635f…
09-21 16:10:08	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x166a45…
09-21 16:10:08	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x117f7c…
09-21 16:09:16	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x947909…
09-21 16:09:16	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x66d25b…
09-21 16:07:59	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0xc944ab…
09-21 16:07:58	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0xa0c342…
09-21 15:56:28	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	0¢	$0	0xcba7c1…
09-21 15:56:10	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	0¢	$0	0xb7c771…
09-21 15:37:59	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0x91ffe4…
09-21 15:25:29	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x5dc1ec…
09-21 09:14:18	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x40fda2…
09-21 09:05:29	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0xe2185c…
09-21 06:17:13	Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?	No	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0xd6cb9c…
09-21 04:06:43	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	300	0¢	$0	0xca9018…
09-21 03:57:55	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xe4d34c…
09-20 21:23:49	Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 13m?	Yes	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0x8c44ac…
09-20 20:32:29	Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 13m?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x01b53b…
09-20 20:32:28	Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 13m?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x9e2f78…
09-20 20:32:28	Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 13m?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x9394d7…
09-20 20:32:28	Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 13m?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x39ffc6…
09-20 20:32:28	Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 13m?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x24f34a…
09-20 20:32:28	Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 13m?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x0ada79…
09-20 19:16:26	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0xe25a70…
09-20 16:40:04	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xf6d798…
09-20 10:43:03	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x619710…
09-20 07:58:00	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	0¢	$1	0xb8d7e9…
09-20 04:01:25	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	0¢	$0	0xaae4d0…
09-20 04:00:01	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	0¢	$0	0x6ab291…
09-20 01:02:36	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	0¢	$0	0xefb26f…
09-19 20:00:47	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x50ad88…
09-19 04:00:06	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x7c9e06…
09-19 04:00:03	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xe22978…
09-19 03:54:34	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x1d61af…
09-19 03:44:01	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	199	0¢	$0	0x40be21…
09-19 03:01:24	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x6224f0…
09-19 02:55:21	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x0211b1…