Carefree-Heartwood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$377

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

38.4%

Resolved

960

Trades

2,070

lifetime

Volume

$7.81K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 08-14 12:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 77 days

Categories

Other

85% 24% -$293

Crypto

14% 63% -$93

Sports

0% 33% +$31

Politics

0% 0% -$20

Tech

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14?	9	$159	120	120	+0	Yes	+$36	06-14 16:04
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30?	8	$126	100	100	+0	Yes	+$74	05-30 10:20
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17?	9	$117	100	100	+0	Yes	+$81	06-17 08:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-16 10:30 UTC	3	$82	103	78	+25	Down	+$7	04-16 10:33
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24?	3	$78	60	50	+10	No	-$4	06-23 18:56
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14?	3	$75	60	60	+0	Yes	+$45	06-14 16:22
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24?	3	$74	60	50	+10	Yes	+$5	06-23 18:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 06:25 UTC	1	$60	62	0	+62	Up	-$60	06-26 06:29
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19?	4	$60	100	100	+0	No	-$2	06-19 04:35
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-16 10:15 UTC	2	$59	67	63	+3	Up	+$19	04-16 10:20
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30?	6	$54	126	0	+126	No	-$54	05-30 10:11
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19?	13	$51	100	100	+0	No	+$5	06-19 04:35
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23?	7	$50	100	0	+100	No	-$50	06-23 11:51
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19?	7	$49	100	100	+0	Yes	+$5	06-19 04:35
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18?	3	$46	114	0	+114	Yes	+$69	06-17 08:51
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30?	4	$43	100	0	+100	No	-$43	05-29 18:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-16 11:15 UTC	1	$40	73	0	+73	Up	-$40	04-16 11:18
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-16 11:00 UTC	1	$40	47	0	+47	Up	+$7	04-16 11:12
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 1?	9	$40	100	0	+100	No	-$40	05-31 09:02
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 1?	6	$39	100	0	+100	No	-$39	05-31 16:38
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21?	1	$38	100	0	+100	Yes	+$62	06-20 18:52
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 16?	11	$38	100	0	+100	No	-$38	05-15 16:20
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1?	1	$38	100	0	+100	No	-$38	05-31 15:19
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 17?	2	$38	100	0	+100	No	-$38	05-16 18:10
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31?	5	$37	70	0	+70	No	-$37	05-31 07:38
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21?	3	$37	100	0	+100	No	-$37	06-20 19:03
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13?	9	$37	100	0	+100	Yes	+$63	06-12 07:30
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1?	4	$36	100	0	+100	Yes	+$64	06-01 11:54
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14?	2	$35	30	30	+0	Yes	+$25	06-14 16:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 17:40 UTC	3	$35	44	0	+44	Down	-$7	06-22 17:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-14 12:03:39	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x7ddb0b…
08-14 12:03:28	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x3f51a7…
08-14 06:14:10	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xe58ff5…
08-14 06:13:39	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x76176c…
08-14 06:13:22	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x563520…
08-12 11:01:55	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 12?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xd65f0c…
08-12 07:05:57	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 12?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x6e11fb…
08-12 06:13:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x5d0e53…
08-11 22:20:28	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xd89a8d…
08-11 21:42:13	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x73a2cc…
08-11 21:41:55	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x618e3a…
08-11 17:36:30	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 12?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xdb6af5…
08-11 17:35:54	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 12?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x2da9a2…
08-11 17:35:31	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 12?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x92e409…
08-10 13:41:15	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 10?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x0b4705…
08-10 13:40:45	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 10?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xcc6f5d…
08-10 13:40:45	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 10?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xbb347c…
08-09 18:30:42	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 10?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xd662d7…
08-09 18:30:21	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 10?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xc39d9f…
08-09 18:30:12	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 10?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x62e8c0…
08-09 16:23:25	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 9?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x6a5cf6…
08-09 16:21:28	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 10?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x5b0a9e…
08-09 16:21:16	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 10?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x2ca956…
08-06 05:51:41	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x3374f8…
08-06 05:49:50	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xfea138…
08-06 05:49:24	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x0232ab…
08-05 20:58:02	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x5fb2ef…
08-05 18:30:27	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 6?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x76d556…
08-05 18:30:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xd323b6…
08-05 18:29:42	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x987d80…
08-05 18:29:20	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x1a8120…
08-05 18:26:32	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x17816e…
08-05 18:25:15	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x3eb91e…
08-05 18:24:53	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xa66303…
08-05 18:24:26	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x3e412d…
08-05 18:18:26	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc6ef60…
08-05 18:01:51	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x46fe3c…
08-05 17:55:57	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xf69d14…
08-05 17:55:32	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x408f29…
08-05 17:54:56	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x7a8c0e…
08-05 17:49:41	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x10f5cf…
08-05 17:49:12	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x5a5e3b…
08-05 17:48:50	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x90674c…
08-05 17:48:48	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x288340…
08-04 18:58:05	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 4?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x6cca9d…
08-03 19:45:39	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x6b22a3…
08-03 18:42:00	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x878d24…
08-03 18:41:47	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0xd653ef…
08-03 18:41:39	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x425f40…
08-03 18:35:11	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 4?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x2f7343…
08-03 18:34:59	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 4?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x4ad60d…
08-03 18:25:48	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xb27dac…
08-03 18:23:36	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xe202ed…
08-02 17:48:35	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xba858b…
08-02 17:48:17	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0xb99b09…
08-02 17:48:17	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	13	6¢	$1	0xafbcf3…
08-02 17:44:24	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x71e83b…
08-02 17:43:32	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x80fd3d…
08-01 05:42:33	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x7fb6d9…
07-31 10:59:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xb67395…
07-31 05:35:14	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xd1c832…
07-31 05:17:12	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xc34f09…
07-31 04:59:36	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x75edf2…
07-31 04:59:17	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x6cb60e…
07-31 04:59:08	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xb8ce81…
07-31 04:56:08	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xfe6fd3…
07-31 04:55:32	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x24aab7…
07-31 04:55:08	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x3f0391…
07-31 03:43:39	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xf584a9…
07-31 03:43:30	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0xd2e92d…
07-31 03:37:51	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xcb22c3…
07-31 03:37:32	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x6b70aa…
07-31 03:35:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x0dec72…
07-31 03:34:42	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x880bbc…
07-31 03:33:09	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x4eef7c…
07-31 03:32:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xaf78cc…
07-27 19:10:55	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x25229d…
07-27 17:25:27	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xac8700…
07-27 17:24:25	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x2d6096…
07-27 17:19:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x5ccc7b…
07-25 21:11:06	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x786b89…
07-25 21:10:45	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xe27029…
07-25 21:10:21	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xc0e643…
07-25 21:10:21	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x027a1a…
07-25 19:29:39	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x26ee70…
07-25 19:29:21	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xc9cd56…
07-25 19:29:10	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x567d28…
07-25 19:17:10	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 26?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf473c9…
07-25 19:16:43	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 26?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x1443aa…
07-25 19:16:13	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 26?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x3497d4…
07-25 19:16:04	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 26?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x215416…
07-25 19:10:54	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	56	1¢	$1	0xf0d2ef…
07-25 19:10:33	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x8f4d68…
07-25 19:09:52	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x1bb98d…
07-25 19:08:43	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xb2f873…
07-25 19:07:52	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xf37324…
07-25 19:07:01	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xf42714…
07-25 19:06:04	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	27	2¢	$1	0x7de24f…
07-25 19:03:16	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xbd0621…
07-25 19:03:01	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xe85b22…