Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$588

Unrealized P&L

-$36

Hit rate

21.1%

Resolved

568

Trades

2,990

lifetime

Volume

$27.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$859

19 positions

First seen

2026-08-05

last 10-29 04:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 51% -$475

Other

26% 20% -$75

Tech

14% 40% -$37

Politics

2% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 343 trades/day

Open positions (19) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	+300	$64	86¢	$260	+$196	10-10 15:28
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$119	60¢	$120	+$1	10-02 03:32
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$82	40¢	$80	-$2	10-02 04:21
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	+105	$49	64¢	$68	+$20	10-20 02:21
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	+93	$57	61¢	$57	$0	10-21 10:01
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	+300	$240	14¢	$40	-$200	10-10 16:20
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	No	+106	$57	36¢	$37	-$19	10-20 08:50
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	+93	$36	39¢	$37	+$0	10-20 16:40
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	+50	$30	51¢	$26	-$4	10-19 21:43
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+40	$12	62¢	$25	+$13	10-02 14:11
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	+50	$23	49¢	$24	+$2	10-20 05:50
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+40	$23	61¢	$24	+$1	10-02 03:25
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	Yes	+25	$13	96¢	$24	+$11	09-27 14:03
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+40	$32	39¢	$16	-$16	10-02 20:57
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+40	$41	38¢	$15	-$26	10-02 20:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+5	$4	88¢	$4	+$0	09-27 09:40
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	+25	$13	4¢	$1	-$12	09-27 16:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+5	$1	12¢	$1	-$1	09-27 10:36
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+0	$0	52¢	$0	+$0	10-21 16:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-27 12:00 UTC	141	$2.8K	5,449	12	+5,436	Up	-$75	08-27 14:35
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	70	$2.2K	3,864	201	+3,663	open	—	10-28 16:07
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-27 08:00 UTC	94	$1.9K	3,651	100	+3,551	Up	-$31	08-27 11:52
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	77	$1.7K	1,821	1,772	+49	Yes	-$40	10-08 09:41
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	93	$1.3K	1,643	398	+1,245	No	-$8	10-13 08:32
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?	29	$813	1,020	288	+732	No	-$34	10-22 16:48
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-31 16:00 UTC	42	$764	1,532	0	+1,532	Up	+$0	08-31 18:39
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-27 04:00 UTC	32	$677	619	619	+0	Up	-$18	08-27 06:37
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	17	$625	800	200	+600	open	—	10-10 16:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	50	$582	1,200	0	+1,200	Up	+$3	09-06 03:08
France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026?	26	$568	1,122	5	+1,117	No	$0	10-19 04:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	42	$544	1,069	5	+1,064	Up	-$12	09-01 22:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	60	$540	1,088	0	+1,088	Up	+$4	09-05 23:38
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	9	$522	559	241	+318	open	—	10-26 06:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	39	$508	977	50	+927	Down	-$8	09-06 15:38
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	16	$486	592	205	+387	No	-$1	10-09 12:25
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-31 20:00 UTC	24	$441	759	160	+599	Down	-$36	08-31 22:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	34	$416	810	0	+810	Up	-$11	09-06 11:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	33	$398	738	25	+713	Down	-$6	09-05 19:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	23	$326	568	49	+519	Up	-$14	09-06 19:47
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-31 12:00 UTC	2	$286	217	217	+0	Up	+$36	08-31 15:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	27	$226	284	169	+115	Up	+$15	09-06 20:32
Over $45M committed to the Jumper public sale?	25	$225	440	40	+400	Yes	-$3	10-02 02:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	16	$222	404	0	+404	Down	-$20	09-06 07:03
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	21	$201	400	0	+400	open	—	10-02 04:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	61	$197	392	0	+392	Down	-$1	09-03 07:27
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-30 00:00 UTC	70	$173	346	0	+346	Down	-$3	08-30 03:42
Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?	2	$165	200	0	+200	open	—	10-29 04:14
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	2	$161	100	100	+0	open	—	10-10 12:42
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	9	$151	255	44	+211	open	—	10-20 08:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 04:14:19	Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xcee7fe…
10-29 03:07:52	Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x8af88a…
10-29 02:21:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x57aa4e…
10-29 02:16:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xfa11bd…
10-28 16:07:19	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	SELL	151	85¢	$128	0x42f7d4…
10-28 16:06:49	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0xc7972b…
10-28 07:56:11	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x17d39c…
10-28 06:47:47	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	51	88¢	$45	0xf82c16…
10-28 06:38:47	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	26	90¢	$23	0xf28166…
10-28 06:37:37	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	76	11¢	$8	0x5e5b17…
10-28 06:36:11	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x42cb19…
10-28 06:28:11	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x1649cb…
10-28 06:27:37	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xe0294c…
10-28 06:25:46	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x8566a3…
10-28 06:23:55	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x345904…
10-28 06:23:49	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x02c5e6…
10-28 06:23:25	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xb1c181…
10-28 06:20:34	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xbc77dd…
10-28 06:19:32	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x99426c…
10-28 06:05:19	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	70	92¢	$64	0x7b45ed…
10-28 06:04:53	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x118976…
10-28 06:04:40	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x166120…
10-28 06:04:13	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x58f9bc…
10-28 06:03:55	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x638e95…
10-28 06:01:52	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x181a96…
10-28 05:37:47	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x213a1f…
10-28 05:36:44	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x55f7dd…
10-28 05:19:32	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xfafa3a…
10-28 05:19:11	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xb3ad0a…
10-28 05:17:47	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x7d2255…
10-28 04:38:14	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x3aba14…
10-28 04:27:07	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	37	18¢	$7	0xe61a64…
10-28 04:27:07	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	13	18¢	$2	0x01d018…
10-28 04:27:05	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xf51449…
10-28 04:23:43	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xe1fcbf…
10-28 03:30:57	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	27	87¢	$24	0x185ca1…
10-28 03:10:33	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x5bb469…
10-28 02:51:21	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x8ccd47…
10-28 02:40:14	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x602c96…
10-28 02:39:41	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xdd9214…
10-28 02:38:36	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x8f0d08…
10-28 02:17:18	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x476685…
10-27 20:30:56	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	16	82¢	$13	0x0aeba0…
10-27 20:25:20	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x106bb2…
10-27 20:24:54	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	71	19¢	$14	0x493b0c…
10-27 20:24:44	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	45	19¢	$9	0x2dc179…
10-27 20:24:44	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x29a4a0…
10-27 20:09:18	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xfa95a9…
10-27 18:21:42	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	16	85¢	$13	0xbe9067…
10-27 17:41:36	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	16	18¢	$3	0x6f5786…
10-27 17:41:36	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	84	82¢	$69	0x652eb0…
10-27 17:41:03	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	84	18¢	$15	0xff5c59…
10-27 16:08:24	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x6e49a4…
10-27 15:44:15	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$9	0x4439d0…
10-27 15:44:09	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	49	19¢	$9	0xf8b063…
10-27 15:44:09	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xef31c0…
10-27 15:44:08	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xe1611f…
10-27 01:38:44	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x8b104c…
10-27 01:38:00	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xc6f6fc…
10-27 01:37:48	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x0a907e…
10-27 01:37:39	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x061547…
10-27 01:37:30	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xc7ef93…
10-27 01:37:14	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x999dd8…
10-27 01:27:24	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xad05c0…
10-27 01:26:27	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xd85025…
10-27 01:25:17	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x14b29f…
10-27 01:25:03	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x07d152…
10-27 01:24:36	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xe1db83…
10-26 07:31:11	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x8fc83a…
10-26 07:12:59	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x4062c0…
10-26 07:12:26	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x705bf0…
10-26 07:12:03	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xfdbde8…
10-26 06:21:27	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x97b73e…
10-26 06:09:36	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x0ed942…
10-26 06:09:08	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	SELL	241	72¢	$174	0x222479…
10-25 21:26:00	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x86b436…
10-25 21:19:41	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x553eb6…
10-25 17:46:24	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0xe0dc63…
10-25 13:05:23	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xe7fc3d…
10-25 12:16:18	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0x43fd0c…
10-25 07:05:18	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	22¢	$0	0x70f8eb…
10-24 14:08:54	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xa3b6eb…
10-24 13:33:20	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x1bf11e…
10-22 16:49:30	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	Yes	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0xa8a857…
10-22 16:49:23	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xfcf2fa…
10-22 16:49:14	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	SELL	3	71¢	$2	0x01c480…
10-22 16:49:06	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	No	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x19d2cd…
10-22 16:48:38	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xb09a0a…
10-21 17:18:38	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	No	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x269924…
10-21 17:18:27	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	Yes	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0xa618c0…
10-21 17:18:23	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	No	SELL	1	45¢	$0	0x542093…
10-21 17:18:20	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xda4330…
10-21 16:14:51	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x946148…
10-21 15:21:12	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	12	63¢	$8	0x997fdd…
10-21 15:03:53	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x54a517…
10-21 14:41:09	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	No	SELL	34	46¢	$16	0x18e9a3…
10-21 14:21:38	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	No	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0xa2e7d9…
10-21 14:21:03	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x760ce3…
10-21 12:38:54	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x2cab9c…
10-21 11:41:06	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	SELL	21	22¢	$5	0x2f3b83…