Confused-Waterbed — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$109

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

10.8%

Resolved

Trades

350

lifetime

Volume

$470

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 05-19 08:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

90% 25% -$96

Politics

7% — —

Sports

3% 0% -$13

Tech

1% 0% $0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-19).

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in dallas on january 16 62 63f	26	$41	59	59	+0	No	-$12	01-14 22:36
highest temperature in toronto on january 15 neg 7c	21	$36	33	33	+0	No	-$6	01-15 01:13
highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	35	$33	238	237	+1	Yes	-$20	01-19 04:08
highest temperature in seoul on january 16 2c	20	$30	48	48	+0	No	-$8	01-14 22:39
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 540 559	7	$28	82	82	+0	Yes	-$4	01-16 05:33
highest temperature in seoul on january 16 6c	16	$24	56	56	+0	Yes	-$7	01-14 22:36
highest temperature in london on january 16 7c	14	$21	49	49	+0	No	-$5	01-15 12:06
highest temperature in nyc on january 15 40 41f	5	$20	11	11	+0	No	$0	01-14 22:35
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	37	$15	240	184	+56	Yes	-$9	01-19 07:11
highest temperature in seoul on january 15 4c	7	$12	18	6	+12	No	-$1	01-14 22:39
highest temperature in atlanta on january 14 56 57f	4	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$0	01-14 22:36
highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	20	$11	86	86	+0	Yes	-$1	01-19 05:39
highest temperature in dallas on january 14 59forbelow	1	$10	13	0	+13	No	+$3	01-14 08:12
highest temperature in buenos aires on january 13 34c	9	$10	30	0	+30	No	-$10	01-13 10:37
highest temperature in atlanta on january 15 46forhigher	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	$0	01-15 01:13
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	6	$9	13	13	+0	open	—	05-13 10:31
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	6	$8	69	69	+0	open	—	05-17 14:48
highest temperature in dallas on january 14 62 63f	3	$8	6	6	+0	Yes	+$4	01-14 22:40
highest temperature in london on january 15 10c	4	$8	12	12	+0	Yes	-$6	01-15 01:14
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$7	141	141	+0	open	—	05-05 17:15
Trump out as President before 2027?	4	$7	22	22	+0	open	—	05-19 08:44
nba min uta 2026 01 20	2	$7	8	0	+8	Jazz	-$7	01-21 00:19
highest temperature in london on january 16 12corhigher	6	$7	13	13	+0	No	-$2	01-15 11:14
highest temperature in london on january 16 8c	6	$6	28	28	+0	No	-$3	01-15 11:15
nba bkn nyk 2026 01 21	1	$6	33	0	+33	Knicks	-$6	01-21 23:05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$5	3	3	+0	No	$0	04-06 17:27
highest temperature in toronto on january 15 neg 8c	3	$5	3	3	+0	No	+$1	01-15 11:04
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$5	9	9	+0	Yes	$0	05-08 05:40
will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on january 16	2	$4	30	0	+30	Yes	-$4	01-16 13:56
highest temperature in buenos aires on january 15 35c	3	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	01-15 11:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 08:44:22	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x19a9f7…
05-19 08:44:10	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x05b8d4…
05-18 14:02:02	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xeb04b4…
05-18 14:01:48	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xcaca4d…
05-17 14:48:12	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x7cb38d…
05-17 14:47:58	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa2cd4e…
05-13 10:31:45	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x0e5370…
05-13 10:31:31	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x309ffb…
05-11 12:56:07	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	66	2¢	$1	0x549787…
05-11 12:55:53	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	66	2¢	$1	0xb2761d…
05-08 05:40:18	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	SELL	9	25¢	$2	0x35e5d6…
05-08 05:40:03	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	9	26¢	$2	0xe2a576…
05-06 12:23:58	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x860faf…
05-06 12:23:44	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x31cb62…
05-05 17:15:22	Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	139	1¢	$1	0xeab28a…
05-05 17:15:10	Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	139	1¢	$1	0x938ed2…
05-04 16:26:50	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x9029a2…
05-04 16:26:40	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x7f506b…
05-03 16:45:00	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	2	78¢	$2	0xb66347…
05-03 16:44:50	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x62c858…
05-02 18:14:30	Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x391d18…
05-02 18:14:20	Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x149a14…
04-06 17:27:05	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x5ff954…
04-06 17:26:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xa09eab…
01-21 23:05:24	nba bkn nyk 2026 01 21	Nets	BUY	33	17¢	$6	0xe36a3a…
01-21 00:19:46	nba min uta 2026 01 20	Timberwolves	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0x781ad8…
01-21 00:19:10	nba min uta 2026 01 20	Timberwolves	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x8b7470…
01-19 07:11:52	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x4d4f2e…
01-19 07:11:38	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x1bca9a…
01-19 07:09:50	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x925eb8…
01-19 06:43:36	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x1de7a7…
01-19 06:33:50	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x6be21a…
01-19 06:13:50	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x3fb5f5…
01-19 06:03:36	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x72c9c6…
01-19 05:44:58	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x0725cf…
01-19 05:39:42	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x84222f…
01-19 05:33:12	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x9c7690…
01-19 05:19:40	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x3a70dd…
01-19 05:04:18	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xcc8015…
01-19 04:58:46	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xda762f…
01-19 04:39:44	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x164566…
01-19 04:14:46	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xf57d3a…
01-19 04:14:36	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x770a4c…
01-19 04:14:22	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0xf158d6…
01-19 04:08:56	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x48e20a…
01-19 04:06:54	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x40598f…
01-19 04:05:34	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x58d435…
01-19 04:05:12	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x7cf472…
01-19 03:41:12	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x0b1255…
01-19 03:19:00	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x758ee1…
01-19 02:17:38	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x000e1a…
01-19 02:17:16	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x6f9c97…
01-19 02:16:58	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xa14df7…
01-19 02:13:54	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xbb9142…
01-19 01:59:08	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x5aa066…
01-19 00:53:56	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x8db2e1…
01-19 00:47:54	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xdfb71f…
01-19 00:47:10	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x80d5f3…
01-19 00:38:10	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x6fa6cc…
01-19 00:19:32	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	18	1¢	$0	0xe2c514…
01-19 00:10:34	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xc3e7ec…
01-19 00:10:30	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0x94580d…
01-19 00:10:16	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0x8a61f5…
01-19 00:08:30	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0x9e5e67…
01-19 00:06:24	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x95036e…
01-18 23:59:16	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	BUY	61	3¢	$2	0x7e970b…
01-18 23:59:14	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x125a37…
01-18 23:58:44	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x755b54…
01-18 23:57:30	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0xf45607…
01-18 23:56:40	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x466c9a…
01-18 23:53:24	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xdf623d…
01-18 23:42:24	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x38fd89…
01-18 23:40:44	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0xcfa9a7…
01-18 23:28:50	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	22	4¢	$1	0x070e7c…
01-18 23:28:46	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x11916c…
01-18 23:28:40	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x2f5d7d…
01-18 23:28:26	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0xed1b10…
01-18 23:27:08	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x1c30bc…
01-18 23:27:04	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x7348be…
01-18 23:16:18	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x5d9d93…
01-18 23:15:36	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x2f0403…
01-18 23:14:06	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xe7482d…
01-18 23:09:48	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0x331314…
01-18 23:08:42	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0xd326b8…
01-18 23:02:06	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x8c0fdf…
01-18 22:55:56	highest temperature in toronto on january 18 neg 6c	No	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0xbd316e…
01-18 22:49:26	highest temperature in nyc on january 18 34 35f	No	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0xeeb5d8…
01-18 22:49:26	highest temperature in nyc on january 18 34 35f	No	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0xb4b297…
01-18 22:45:20	highest temperature in nyc on january 18 34 35f	No	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0x7647bc…
01-18 22:45:20	highest temperature in nyc on january 18 34 35f	No	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0x4814b7…
01-18 22:39:26	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x62cc21…
01-18 22:39:24	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x62e137…
01-18 22:38:28	highest temperature in nyc on january 18 34 35f	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x7c0a25…
01-18 22:38:24	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	86	2¢	$2	0xda6901…
01-18 22:38:10	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x390a3d…
01-18 22:37:46	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	BUY	27	7¢	$2	0x5597a0…
01-18 22:36:02	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x6f85cc…
01-18 22:34:26	highest temperature in nyc on january 18 34 35f	No	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xea0783…
01-18 22:29:30	highest temperature in seoul on january 19 0c	No	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0x8bf413…
01-18 22:26:52	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	No	SELL	18	2¢	$0	0x0daca2…