Ill-Fated-Priority — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$793

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

52.5%

Resolved

732

Trades

2,812

lifetime

Volume

$17.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$439

13 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-30 18:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 145 days

Categories

Other

54% 43% -$579

Sports

23% 38% -$241

Politics

23% 59% +$19

Crypto

0% 100% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+181	$100	58¢	$106	+$6	10-28 18:52
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+112	$85	86¢	$97	+$12	10-14 21:00
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	No	+65	$56	92¢	$60	+$4	10-20 22:11
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+114	$59	41¢	$47	-$12	10-30 18:20
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	+158	$56	30¢	$47	-$9	10-21 14:50
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+54	$40	72¢	$39	$0	10-30 18:57
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+35	$25	76¢	$27	+$1	10-27 03:31
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	+37	$18	24¢	$9	-$9	10-09 18:03
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	+5	$4	82¢	$4	+$0	10-29 00:51
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+4	$3	66¢	$2	-$1	09-19 15:37
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1	-$1	54¢	$0	+$1	10-23 07:39
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+0	$0	34¢	$0	$0	09-06 15:42
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	24¢	$0	$0	10-04 14:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	38	$413	501	320	+181	open	—	10-28 18:52
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	27	$305	382	268	+114	open	—	10-30 18:20
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	27	$283	356	243	+113	open	—	10-14 21:00
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	26	$260	401	329	+72	open	—	10-27 03:31
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	28	$212	288	130	+158	open	—	10-21 14:50
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	26	$206	205	202	+4	open	—	09-19 15:37
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	50	$199	217	189	+28	No	+$5	05-16 22:40
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	10	$186	115	106	+9	Yes	-$4	08-23 01:31
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	7	$177	114	114	-0	Yes	+$2	10-21 01:16
dota2 ts8 liquid 2026 08 21	22	$173	252	252	+0	Team Spirit	-$13	08-22 03:29
US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx	15	$172	147	147	+0	Karen Khachanov	-$3	09-09 22:56
Will Erick Visconde win by KO or TKO?	14	$170	228	228	+0	No	-$42	09-30 05:34
itf carbaja cosano 2026 08 25 match total 23pt5	24	$163	299	222	+78	Over	-$28	08-25 16:26
Will Viktor Gyokeres be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?	4	$154	59	105	-46	No	+$7	04-12 20:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	13	$153	133	74	+59	No	+$12	06-27 16:10
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	11	$150	129	129	+0	No	-$8	09-09 06:52
ufc wel isl2 2026 07 25	7	$134	157	114	+43	cancelled	-$1	07-25 13:23
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	14	$127	99	99	+0	No	$0	08-04 14:34
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?	6	$126	30	97	-67	No	+$1	04-30 18:23
wta kawa badosa 2026 07 21	17	$120	176	107	+69	Paula Badosa	-$23	07-21 22:26
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07?	11	$115	100	45	+55	Yes	+$4	06-07 23:38
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	9	$114	102	49	+53	Yes	-$14	05-27 21:06
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	18	$113	116	67	+50	Yes	+$8	02-02 22:20
wta alexand tauson 2026 08 26	9	$112	125	125	-0	Clara Tauson	+$1	08-27 03:55
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-10?	5	$107	60	60	+0	Yes	-$1	10-10 19:15
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17?	16	$103	136	97	+39	No	-$69	05-27 21:15
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	6	$100	105	0	+105	Yes	+$5	05-16 23:48
atp alcaraz minaur 2026 09 27	17	$100	324	0	+324	cancelled	+$62	09-27 14:09
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Patrick Kypson	6	$100	205	0	+205	cancelled	+$3	05-25 08:44
atp ribeiro paulson 2026 08 16	9	$100	214	0	+214	cancelled	+$7	08-16 02:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 18:57:03	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x066229…
10-30 18:20:39	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	35	41¢	$14	0x6cbd3c…
10-30 04:22:45	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0xb73db0…
10-29 04:33:11	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	19	42¢	$8	0x86dfc3…
10-29 00:51:40	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0x4b1647…
10-28 22:05:37	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x2db8be…
10-28 18:52:58	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x3b49a8…
10-28 18:47:47	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0x3d17bc…
10-28 18:47:46	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	48	55¢	$26	0xf192d2…
10-28 18:47:46	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xb26740…
10-28 18:02:31	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0xdbd729…
10-28 18:02:26	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	24	55¢	$13	0x56c76c…
10-28 18:02:25	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	33	55¢	$18	0x3bd0df…
10-28 17:38:29	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x42d465…
10-28 17:15:19	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x79c4e5…
10-28 15:12:37	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	21	46¢	$10	0x86f8a4…
10-28 15:12:37	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	10	46¢	$4	0x152a6d…
10-28 14:52:41	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	9	46¢	$4	0x73def9…
10-28 14:52:29	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x4305a8…
10-28 14:41:37	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0xb4d976…
10-28 14:31:07	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xb36dcb…
10-28 14:28:52	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0x65c745…
10-28 14:28:38	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	9	44¢	$4	0x35f037…
10-28 10:42:14	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0xac58fa…
10-28 10:10:35	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	36	54¢	$19	0x5888f6…
10-28 10:10:32	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0xeed477…
10-28 10:10:32	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0xe83add…
10-28 10:10:32	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0xb7d64e…
10-28 10:10:32	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	1	54¢	$1	0x49e3cb…
10-28 10:10:32	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	1	54¢	$0	0x29c995…
10-28 10:10:32	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	1	54¢	$1	0x29a976…
10-28 10:10:32	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0x22c3ef…
10-28 10:09:49	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x360188…
10-28 00:19:44	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0xcb3df7…
10-27 23:44:54	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	65	55¢	$36	0xc40790…
10-27 21:19:56	Fleetwood Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	16	86¢	$14	0x217e84…
10-27 21:19:56	Fleetwood Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x12b6d2…
10-27 03:31:41	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	67¢	$25	0xd19cea…
10-27 01:32:30	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	68¢	$6	0xdaa191…
10-27 01:32:20	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	68¢	$7	0x3b3084…
10-27 01:32:18	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xec008d…
10-27 01:32:18	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x0f535d…
10-26 14:41:15	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x7ed80f…
10-26 13:35:08	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0xc54277…
10-24 21:15:14	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	12	54¢	$6	0x1835df…
10-24 17:20:42	SK Slavia Praha vs. FK Mladá Boleslav: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xcab54e…
10-24 15:45:26	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x59e3b5…
10-24 15:30:29	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x92459b…
10-24 15:30:27	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x96b820…
10-24 15:30:26	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf18aca…
10-24 15:30:26	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xbc54dd…
10-24 14:36:18	IK Sirius vs. AIK: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0x2976c7…
10-24 14:36:17	IK Sirius vs. AIK: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0x645507…
10-23 20:01:45	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	5¢	$2	0x023b67…
10-23 20:01:44	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	5¢	$2	0x95e6ae…
10-23 17:20:30	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	35¢	$8	0x63b824…
10-23 16:52:17	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0xdb6684…
10-23 16:52:02	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x2423ff…
10-23 16:51:53	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x37a5ba…
10-23 16:38:06	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0x10507e…
10-23 16:37:44	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x5b0b02…
10-23 16:21:44	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xa7355b…
10-23 16:21:39	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xa7ffa5…
10-23 08:37:38	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x9a776c…
10-23 07:39:39	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	37¢	$4	0xebf013…
10-23 00:18:29	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xf3d3c4…
10-22 20:23:20	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-22?	No	BUY	34	17¢	$6	0x926594…
10-22 20:00:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	22	72¢	$16	0xcd38f4…
10-22 20:00:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	12	72¢	$9	0x221ae7…
10-22 20:00:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	72¢	$0	0x161179…
10-22 18:45:38	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	37¢	$17	0x9d2958…
10-22 15:09:45	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0xed09f2…
10-22 15:06:42	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1	51¢	$0	0x4c9ed6…
10-22 15:06:42	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	48	51¢	$25	0x1be57a…
10-22 15:06:35	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	29	53¢	$15	0x25ed76…
10-22 15:02:36	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	38¢	$3	0x121f9d…
10-22 14:25:36	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xb35fc0…
10-22 13:31:02	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	3	46¢	$2	0x97eb1d…
10-22 13:31:00	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	51	46¢	$23	0xef6617…
10-22 11:26:12	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	38¢	$6	0x651ebd…
10-22 11:26:06	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0x7318e4…
10-22 00:12:39	Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	Atlanta Dream	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xf76ad8…
10-22 00:12:35	Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	Atlanta Dream	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x5b2102…
10-21 14:59:59	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	38¢	$7	0x9445a2…
10-21 14:50:29	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0x95f608…
10-21 14:47:23	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	38¢	$4	0x91a5b0…
10-21 07:00:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0xa330cd…
10-21 01:40:17	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x16d73d…
10-21 01:16:27	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	15	80¢	$12	0x6cf34f…
10-20 23:59:27	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0xb71fb4…
10-20 22:40:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	15	81¢	$12	0xd7eb9b…
10-20 22:38:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x96055b…
10-20 22:11:20	Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	7	88¢	$7	0x09ed26…
10-20 21:57:35	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	59	38¢	$23	0x4bee58…
10-20 21:30:44	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	25¢	$20	0x00933c…
10-20 18:57:54	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	68	35¢	$24	0xac8a40…
10-20 17:12:23	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x8cd1ba…
10-20 16:25:32	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x55f3d8…
10-20 15:53:38	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x044148…
10-20 15:18:26	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x6d42d5…