Unnatural-Breakdown — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$19.3K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.8%

Resolved

Trades

245

lifetime

Volume

$1.47M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$5.99K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 22:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Politics

73% 81% +$28,722

Other

27% 82% -$9,508

Tech

0% 100% +$75

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	38	$188.9K	101,349	101,349	+0	Yes	+$2,877	06-23 20:28
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	3	$95.2K	84,063	16,346	+67,717	No	+$3,546	06-24 23:11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	68	$81.3K	108,084	108,084	+0	No	-$37,178	09-12 15:21
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$67.6K	34,973	34,973	+0	No	+$920	04-01 00:37
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$67.4K	34,657	34,657	+0	Yes	-$1,116	04-07 10:23
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$61.6K	32,629	32,629	+0	No	+$2,727	03-30 21:57
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$60.0K	62,124	0	+62,124	No	+$2,124	05-13 02:12
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	5	$57.0K	49,237	30,290	+18,947	Yes	-$12,014	08-11 17:13
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	2	$42.0K	45,265	0	+45,265	No	+$3,265	05-17 14:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$41.4K	43,107	0	+43,107	No	+$1,724	04-25 15:55
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$40.3K	42,917	0	+42,917	Yes	+$2,617	10-26 22:14
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	19	$36.3K	42,733	42,733	+0	No	-$75	06-29 02:31
us forces enter iran by march 7	2	$36.0K	18,539	18,539	+0	No	+$87	03-06 22:28
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	3	$35.6K	17,999	17,999	+0	No	+$326	03-06 03:24
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	1	$35.5K	39,916	0	+39,916	No	+$4,391	04-09 21:29
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	2	$35.1K	38,436	0	+38,436	No	+$3,366	10-06 02:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$35.0K	38,976	0	+38,976	No	+$3,976	05-24 23:22
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	1	$35.0K	36,892	0	+36,892	Yes	+$1,892	10-16 11:12
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	1	$33.2K	37,023	0	+37,023	No	+$3,865	04-07 10:23
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	9	$26.4K	29,822	0	+29,822	No	+$3,437	09-22 18:07
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	1	$25.0K	26,617	0	+26,617	No	+$1,617	05-29 23:24
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	1	$25.0K	25,824	0	+25,824	Yes	+$824	08-06 23:47
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$21.3K	24,897	0	+24,897	Yes	+$3,608	09-14 21:31
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	1	$20.0K	20,712	0	+20,712	No	+$712	05-24 23:34
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	3	$19.0K	12,587	12,587	+0	No	+$1,720	03-04 03:48
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	1	$18.0K	18,705	0	+18,705	Yes	+$705	08-12 02:38
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	4	$16.8K	18,567	0	+18,567	No	+$1,768	03-08 18:30
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829	3	$16.7K	19,983	0	+19,983	No	+$3,295	07-08 23:45
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	2	$15.0K	8,567	8,567	+0	No	-$965	07-18 16:20
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$15.0K	19,231	0	+19,231	Yes	+$4,231	07-08 23:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 22:14:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	42,917	94¢	$40,300	0x23c304…
10-16 11:12:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	36,892	95¢	$35,000	0x65cde5…
10-06 02:06:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5,828	87¢	$5,070	0x2a874e…
10-06 02:05:59	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	SELL	3,249	47¢	$1,516	0x053cec…
10-02 21:05:29	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	32,609	92¢	$30,000	0x7efb4f…
10-02 12:11:06	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	BUY	3,249	62¢	$2,000	0x39e123…
09-22 18:07:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	354	84¢	$297	0x7e2d71…
09-22 18:06:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	94	84¢	$79	0xc5d8a6…
09-22 18:06:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x869c89…
09-22 18:05:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xb310f1…
09-22 17:58:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xd9608a…
09-22 17:58:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xb08c41…
09-22 17:58:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x5f356d…
09-22 14:02:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,188	84¢	$998	0xe784f4…
09-18 01:25:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644 414 831	No	BUY	27,985	89¢	$24,842	0xb8fdf1…
09-14 21:31:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	88¢	$352	0x917181…
09-14 21:29:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9,000	88¢	$7,920	0x390a32…
09-14 16:14:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15,497	84¢	$13,017	0xf8c2d2…
09-12 15:21:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	105,996	20¢	$21,664	0xda8ecf…
09-12 15:21:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,089	20¢	$418	0xa6988d…
09-08 12:21:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,500	46¢	$2,990	0xcc7060…
09-08 12:02:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,000	0¢	$12	0xb90fd2…
09-08 06:35:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	272	47¢	$128	0x90da16…
09-08 06:33:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	377	47¢	$177	0x2fcc3b…
09-08 06:19:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,887	47¢	$887	0x034f54…
09-08 06:19:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xaa5f9f…
09-08 06:15:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xdf6937…
09-08 06:12:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x69abf5…
09-08 06:12:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,773	47¢	$2,243	0x2d4296…
09-08 06:08:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xc7e884…
09-08 06:02:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xddc909…
09-08 06:00:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xc17a1b…
09-08 05:59:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x3a92e0…
09-08 05:52:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	31	47¢	$14	0x9d7fa0…
09-08 05:50:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x1c7832…
09-08 05:48:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xd35e24…
09-08 05:45:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0x6b6c27…
09-08 05:30:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	47¢	$7	0xbd673b…
09-08 05:23:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xc272f9…
09-08 05:23:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	70	47¢	$33	0xf3f205…
09-08 05:18:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,463	47¢	$688	0x10d472…
09-08 05:04:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xe2cfa6…
09-08 05:03:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x55306b…
09-08 04:53:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xac0da8…
09-08 04:44:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x31422c…
09-08 04:42:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x039ee6…
09-08 04:34:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x6aab27…
09-08 04:28:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x44896e…
09-08 04:12:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xc50658…
09-08 04:08:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xdbc394…
09-08 04:08:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	96	47¢	$45	0xb99347…
09-08 04:07:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	47¢	$9	0x9f2e75…
09-08 04:07:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	350	47¢	$164	0x1ab0bf…
09-08 04:06:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	31	47¢	$15	0x47311a…
09-08 04:02:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	377	47¢	$177	0x8722f7…
09-08 04:01:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	47¢	$14	0x0fd565…
09-08 03:41:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$3	0x4841a2…
09-08 03:18:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,042	47¢	$490	0x729fd1…
09-08 03:02:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	72	47¢	$34	0xf5c410…
08-31 16:45:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	39,000	40¢	$15,600	0x3d5eee…
08-26 12:05:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9,500	68¢	$6,460	0x348b04…
08-21 14:36:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18,276	68¢	$12,427	0x9d102a…
08-21 14:36:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	68¢	$272	0xce78ff…
08-21 14:36:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	139	68¢	$94	0xda1dd5…
08-21 14:36:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	439	68¢	$299	0xb172d7…
08-21 14:36:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	277	68¢	$188	0x62cf12…
08-21 14:35:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	140	68¢	$95	0xb8bb03…
08-21 14:35:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	280	68¢	$190	0xca94ac…
08-21 14:35:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	439	68¢	$299	0x0f5520…
08-21 14:35:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	149	68¢	$101	0x3c2bde…
08-21 14:34:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,760	68¢	$2,557	0x8069bc…
08-21 14:34:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	271	68¢	$184	0xffe872…
08-21 14:34:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	136	68¢	$92	0x9869db…
08-21 14:34:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	439	68¢	$299	0x29940c…
08-21 14:34:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	125	68¢	$85	0x47f168…
08-21 14:33:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	439	68¢	$299	0x60da11…
08-21 14:33:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	68¢	$170	0x0de238…
08-21 14:33:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x0d1d6f…
08-21 14:33:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	68¢	$340	0xfb1b95…
08-21 14:33:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	76	68¢	$52	0xea57b6…
08-21 14:33:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	68¢	$340	0xd5ba78…
08-21 14:33:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	296	68¢	$201	0xc3fa0f…
08-21 14:33:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	101	68¢	$68	0xaf1ac3…
08-21 14:33:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	438	68¢	$298	0x86a840…
08-21 14:33:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x68eb21…
08-21 14:33:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x3d285f…
08-19 16:02:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14,085	71¢	$10,000	0xf66708…
08-12 02:38:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	18,705	96¢	$18,000	0xc2c701…
08-11 17:13:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	18,947	95¢	$18,000	0xb8238f…
08-07 01:23:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	7,946	88¢	$7,000	0x679b8d…
08-07 00:15:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	9,009	89¢	$8,000	0x5cc943…
08-06 23:47:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	25,824	97¢	$25,000	0x7db48d…
08-02 05:51:53	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	30,290	43¢	$13,039	0xfaada5…
08-02 00:33:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	9,057	77¢	$7,000	0xdf017d…
08-01 00:09:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	12,840	93¢	$12,000	0xa3880e…
07-31 11:49:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	8,393	83¢	$7,000	0x6949a3…
07-30 23:25:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	2,460	96¢	$2,362	0x3a275a…
07-30 22:59:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	5,321	96¢	$5,108	0x3865f1…
07-30 01:31:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	7,781	90¢	$7,000	0x84217e…
07-20 11:57:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	10,722	93¢	$10,000	0xeb0a47…