Vain-Smoke — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$117

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

80.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$847

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 05-07 02:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 48% +$122

Other

1% 0% -$2

Tech

0% 0% -$3

Sports

0% 0% $0

Politics

0% 0% $0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-07).

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 00:55 UTC	3	$168	95	88	+6	Down	+$9	02-17 01:02
solana up or down february 18 10pm et	2	$164	114	114	+0	Up	+$64	02-19 03:59
bitcoin up or down february 18 10pm et	3	$153	88	88	+0	Up	+$22	02-19 03:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 22:45 UTC	2	$93	75	74	+1	Up	+$54	02-16 22:50
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 06:30 UTC	3	$63	123	122	+1	Down	-$7	02-19 06:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 06:15 UTC	2	$48	35	35	+0	Up	+$23	02-19 06:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	1	$25	95	0	+95	Down	-$25	05-07 02:07
bitcoin up or down february 18 11pm et	4	$24	2,013	13	+2,000	Down	+$2	02-19 06:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	1	$23	95	0	+95	Down	-$23	05-07 02:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	2	$10	42	0	+42	Up	-$10	05-07 01:36
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 02:45 UTC	2	$7	8	0	+8	Up	+$1	02-10 02:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 00:50 UTC	2	$6	18	0	+18	Down	-$6	02-17 00:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 23:00 UTC	1	$6	23	0	+23	Up	+$17	02-16 23:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	1	$5	12	0	+12	Up	+$8	05-07 01:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	1	$5	25	0	+25	Down	-$5	05-07 02:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	1	$5	125	0	+125	Down	-$5	05-07 01:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	1	$5	17	0	+17	Down	-$5	05-07 01:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	1	$5	22	0	+22	Up	+$17	05-07 01:22
will ethereum dip to 1600 in february 2026	1	$5	53	0	+53	No	-$5	02-18 08:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	1	$5	14	0	+14	Down	+$9	05-07 01:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 03:15 UTC	1	$5	9	0	+9	Down	-$5	02-10 03:18
ethereum up or down february 16 5pm et	2	$4	848	0	+848	Down	-$4	02-16 22:59
chatgpt full outage by february 28	3	$3	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	-$3	02-17 01:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 03:00 UTC	3	$3	245	0	+245	Down	-$3	02-10 03:13
lol up lgd 2026 01 28	2	$2	4	4	+0	LGD Gaming	-$2	01-28 09:25
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	2	$2	3	3	+0	Seahawks	$0	01-28 23:35
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	$0	01-28 23:35
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	2	$2	2	2	+0	No	$0	01-28 23:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-07 02:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	95	24¢	$23	0x7f5b3d…
05-07 02:07:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	95	26¢	$25	0x24f7b4…
05-07 02:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xf173db…
05-07 01:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x3e01ae…
05-07 01:52:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x143df0…
05-07 01:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xcc66b7…
05-07 01:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xe16e93…
05-07 01:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xdb2998…
05-07 01:36:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x79e36f…
05-07 01:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x5e41a8…
02-19 06:41:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 06:30 UTC	Up	SELL	122	23¢	$28	0x03ac67…
02-19 06:37:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	110	27¢	$30	0x9e4360…
02-19 06:36:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x375c5a…
02-19 06:31:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 06:15 UTC	Up	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xa39d78…
02-19 06:16:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	35	36¢	$13	0x6dac33…
02-19 06:00:10	bitcoin up or down february 18 11pm et	Down	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x034ecb…
02-19 04:58:10	bitcoin up or down february 18 11pm et	Up	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x7aada1…
02-19 04:41:06	bitcoin up or down february 18 11pm et	Down	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x1e2d1f…
02-19 04:24:14	bitcoin up or down february 18 11pm et	Down	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0x36c804…
02-19 03:59:42	solana up or down february 18 10pm et	Up	SELL	114	100¢	$114	0x063ce2…
02-19 03:56:36	bitcoin up or down february 18 10pm et	Up	SELL	88	99¢	$88	0xb103d7…
02-19 03:51:06	bitcoin up or down february 18 10pm et	Up	BUY	66	75¢	$50	0x2a7921…
02-19 03:49:58	solana up or down february 18 10pm et	Up	BUY	114	44¢	$50	0xcad1de…
02-19 03:45:48	bitcoin up or down february 18 10pm et	Up	BUY	22	71¢	$16	0xdd5306…
02-18 08:14:32	will ethereum dip to 1600 in february 2026	Yes	BUY	53	9¢	$5	0xda4dc1…
02-17 01:04:49	chatgpt full outage by february 28	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe15006…
02-17 01:04:43	chatgpt full outage by february 28	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x182ee7…
02-17 01:04:09	chatgpt full outage by february 28	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb28a8c…
02-17 01:02:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 00:55 UTC	Down	SELL	88	100¢	$88	0xb82145…
02-17 00:57:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 00:55 UTC	Down	BUY	89	89¢	$79	0x00a722…
02-17 00:56:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 00:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x765355…
02-17 00:53:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 00:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x2085fe…
02-17 00:51:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 00:50 UTC	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x469252…
02-16 23:03:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	23	26¢	$6	0x10bdc5…
02-16 22:59:39	ethereum up or down february 16 5pm et	Up	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x5c9c96…
02-16 22:54:23	ethereum up or down february 16 5pm et	Up	BUY	348	1¢	$3	0xbe3aab…
02-16 22:50:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 22:45 UTC	Up	SELL	74	99¢	$73	0x34be0c…
02-16 22:46:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 22:45 UTC	Up	BUY	75	27¢	$20	0x0ecf54…
02-10 03:18:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x5702f9…
02-10 03:13:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 03:00 UTC	Up	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x64e7ea…
02-10 03:11:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 03:00 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7cf338…
02-10 03:03:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 03:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x1ace2c…
02-10 02:54:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$6	0x4eb891…
02-10 02:51:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x752fbe…
01-28 23:35:24	Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0x295843…
01-28 23:35:18	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0xd05b84…
01-28 23:35:12	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Patriots	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0xb9185d…
01-28 09:25:41	lol up lgd 2026 01 28	Ultra Prime	SELL	4	10¢	$0	0xfd98ea…
01-28 08:11:41	lol up lgd 2026 01 28	Ultra Prime	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x966f98…
01-28 08:03:59	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Patriots	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x8a0f89…
01-28 07:07:53	Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x91aa4e…
01-28 07:06:37	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xa692aa…