Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$79

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

12.4%

Resolved

Trades

723

lifetime

Volume

$5.38K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$107

6 positions

First seen

2026-09-23

last 11-01 23:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Other

70% 17% -$67

Politics

16% 0% -$7

Tech

8% — —

Crypto

4% 50% -$2

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

1% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	+44	$23	62¢	$27	+$4	10-16 08:55
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	+40	$27	62¢	$25	-$2	10-30 14:32
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	No	+23	$19	100¢	$23	+$3	10-15 17:05
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	+44	$22	38¢	$17	-$6	10-15 23:38
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	No	+40	$14	38¢	$15	+$1	11-01 02:15
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	+23	$4	0¢	$0	-$4	10-16 02:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	19	$193	326	34	+291	open	—	11-01 13:04
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	16	$155	160	120	+40	open	—	11-01 18:35
Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?	15	$127	175	37	+137	open	—	10-29 17:30
Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?	15	$113	160	120	+40	open	—	10-18 10:45
Will AVAX reach $14 by December 31, 2026?	13	$104	127	111	+16	open	—	10-28 23:01
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	14	$95	125	76	+49	open	—	10-29 17:43
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by October 31, 2026?	12	$94	152	48	+105	open	—	10-19 23:29
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	9	$92	160	40	+120	open	—	11-01 17:32
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	11	$83	125	37	+88	open	—	10-16 08:55
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	12	$71	110	66	+44	open	—	10-30 02:32
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	5	$70	60	60	+0	open	—	10-28 01:54
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	9	$70	84	36	+48	open	—	11-01 02:34
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $503,000 and $507,000 on December 31?	5	$65	40	40	+0	open	—	11-01 18:35
Tokenized stocks available on Robinhood by March 31, 2027?	6	$61	80	40	+40	open	—	10-16 09:31
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?	6	$61	80	40	+40	No	-$3	10-16 12:42
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	6	$60	120	0	+120	open	—	10-27 07:42
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	7	$58	57	47	+10	open	—	11-01 11:23
Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	6	$58	78	38	+40	open	—	10-20 09:00
Another Vatican x Anthropic meeting by December 31?	10	$58	69	51	+19	open	—	11-01 18:35
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	7	$55	84	36	+49	open	—	11-01 02:38
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	7	$52	104	20	+84	No	-$1	10-24 06:01
Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	6	$48	80	40	+40	open	—	10-30 03:56
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Jersey be between 3,000,000 and 3,200,000?	6	$44	88	0	+88	open	—	10-15 12:28
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	9	$44	86	5	+81	open	—	11-01 02:15
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	4	$44	60	20	+40	open	—	10-23 03:00
Will 2026 rank between 7th and 9th among the highest domestic box office years?	4	$42	40	40	+0	open	—	10-13 18:54
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026?	4	$40	60	20	+40	open	—	10-10 23:25
will the houthis successfully target shipping by october 15 2026	4	$38	40	40	+0	No	-$12	09-24 00:08
SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?	6	$37	42	38	+4	open	—	11-01 18:35
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026?	4	$36	25	25	+0	open	—	10-09 23:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 23:02:18	Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x4191e5…
11-01 22:26:31	Will Club Guabirá win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x711146…
11-01 22:11:07	Will Guayaquil City FC win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x1f0738…
11-01 21:47:01	Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xcb1513…
11-01 21:28:22	Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x3fa70e…
11-01 20:52:06	Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x282283…
11-01 20:34:49	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x3cf6c5…
11-01 20:18:22	Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xea8464…
11-01 20:13:46	Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xc5c7a9…
11-01 18:35:51	Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	No	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0x5dddcd…
11-01 18:35:49	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xc5cb9f…
11-01 18:35:49	Another Vatican x Anthropic meeting by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	12¢	$2	0xc38b86…
11-01 18:35:49	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xa9da39…
11-01 18:35:49	Will Melania Trump meet with Putin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	79¢	$13	0xa2afd0…
11-01 18:35:49	Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $45 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	37¢	$4	0x8a3377…
11-01 18:35:49	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x636ec7…
11-01 18:35:49	Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x56015b…
11-01 18:35:49	SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	15¢	$3	0x4315cd…
11-01 18:35:49	Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?	No	SELL	15	82¢	$12	0x3e1501…
11-01 18:35:49	Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	Yes	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0x146acd…
11-01 18:35:49	Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x028921…
11-01 18:35:48	Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $503,000 and $507,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xfeb87b…
11-01 17:49:07	Will Melania Trump meet with Putin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	16¢	$1	0x80875e…
11-01 17:37:22	Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $503,000 and $507,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x1121e7…
11-01 17:32:25	Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	Yes	BUY	40	64¢	$26	0x7b212c…
11-01 17:17:31	Will Melania Trump meet with Putin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x097bf9…
11-01 15:45:34	Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x08fd7d…
11-01 14:57:13	Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xf20e64…
11-01 14:34:12	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xfb9cf8…
11-01 13:58:16	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xe3cab0…
11-01 13:42:40	Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	No	BUY	15	43¢	$6	0x31e20d…
11-01 13:27:54	Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xb389ec…
11-01 13:04:15	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x2dd6ae…
11-01 11:23:12	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	30¢	$4	0xada820…
11-01 10:41:04	Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027?	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x0e7756…
11-01 10:06:24	Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x4a03d1…
11-01 07:15:52	Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $45 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0x3edd11…
11-01 05:33:55	Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x42348c…
11-01 05:33:55	Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x0ab1bf…
11-01 05:28:36	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xecc258…
11-01 05:26:24	Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xbb1a7e…
11-01 03:45:34	Will ARENA win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Yes	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0x2eb948…
11-01 03:45:27	Will ARENA win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Yes	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0x3025f7…
11-01 02:45:25	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x11239a…
11-01 02:38:01	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xf43060…
11-01 02:37:55	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xa2dd98…
11-01 02:34:49	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xe8be12…
11-01 02:15:00	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	No	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x44d6e3…
11-01 02:14:54	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	No	BUY	5	29¢	$2	0xc4cb65…
11-01 02:05:52	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	17	73¢	$12	0x59f759…
11-01 02:05:46	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x029d16…
11-01 01:42:58	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xea51f6…
10-31 23:57:30	Will ARENA win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x33d544…
10-31 22:27:03	Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	No	SELL	14	42¢	$6	0x99219f…
10-31 20:48:48	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x5cf6af…
10-31 20:26:57	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xec27f0…
10-31 20:04:37	SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0xd8b130…
10-31 16:30:16	Another Vatican x Anthropic meeting by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x1bdb3d…
10-31 15:14:13	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	21¢	$5	0x8cd74f…
10-31 15:14:06	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x9473f7…
10-31 13:07:51	Will Travis Scott have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xf4309f…
10-31 13:07:51	Will Travis Scott have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x7a152b…
10-31 12:50:54	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xa00cc8…
10-31 11:43:37	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xe8b251…
10-31 09:59:54	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x29550a…
10-31 09:20:12	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x71d4d5…
10-31 09:13:09	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xff037d…
10-31 00:25:03	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x8ecf45…
10-30 23:57:30	Will ARENA win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xecc8f0…
10-30 23:49:30	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x0fb82a…
10-30 22:47:55	Will Faber announce it will resume sales of Sally Rooney's books in the UK by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xb83c6a…
10-30 22:27:03	Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xafc840…
10-30 21:50:54	Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?	No	BUY	15	86¢	$12	0x6d0706…
10-30 21:49:39	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0xa1c5e6…
10-30 20:12:03	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	15	45¢	$7	0x25a6d2…
10-30 20:11:55	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xda1550…
10-30 19:45:57	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.75 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	19¢	$4	0x35ebb3…
10-30 18:50:12	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x8d56ca…
10-30 18:22:58	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.8% before 2027?	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x9d161a…
10-30 17:54:49	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	12	64¢	$8	0xf4ab4b…
10-30 17:27:24	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xebaa67…
10-30 16:46:22	Will Canza launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x9a4c7e…
10-30 16:00:33	Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xe1823d…
10-30 15:24:40	Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x912caa…
10-30 15:14:06	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in October?	Yes	BUY	0	13¢	$0	0x897de4…
10-30 14:32:40	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	23	68¢	$15	0x9d38e2…
10-30 14:31:24	Will "GTA VI: The Album" first week sales be at least 200k?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xd2e8c7…
10-30 13:43:36	Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x81b1a0…
10-30 13:19:12	Will Travis Scott have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x34d0ba…
10-30 08:30:28	SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x2b2976…
10-30 07:51:43	Will Ant-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday?	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x922cc2…
10-30 07:51:37	Will Ant-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xcda07f…
10-30 05:41:28	SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	64¢	$12	0x13fe84…
10-30 05:40:55	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xc619f2…
10-30 04:41:28	Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xfee553…
10-30 03:57:40	Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xecb9de…
10-30 03:56:58	Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xb74a80…
10-30 03:56:51	Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x898395…
10-30 03:17:52	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xf9bf08…
10-30 03:13:51	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x69c52e…