Recent-Guard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$191

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

53.4%

Resolved

392

Trades

2,432

lifetime

Volume

$13.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$12

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 11-06 19:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 50% -$153

Other

3% 43% -$17

Politics

2% 43% +$31

Sports

1% 55% -$53

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 109 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+10	$7	68¢	$7	+$0	10-12 20:40
Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	+6	$4	88¢	$5	+$1	10-10 07:25
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+0	$1	98¢	$0	-$1	10-12 16:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 03:30 UTC	2	$415	215	215	+0	Down	+$15	03-04 03:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 03:45 UTC	4	$370	479	472	+7	Up	-$150	03-04 03:50
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 04:00 UTC	6	$357	289	285	+4	Up	+$49	03-04 04:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 15:45 UTC	35	$255	206	204	+2	Up	-$5	03-10 16:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:45 UTC	8	$219	185	182	+3	Up	+$11	03-04 04:50
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 04:15 UTC	2	$216	118	117	+0	Down	+$17	03-04 04:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 15:30 UTC	32	$213	181	179	+2	Down	$0	03-10 15:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:50 UTC	6	$209	155	153	+2	Up	+$7	03-04 04:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 04:30 UTC	4	$192	208	206	+2	Up	-$106	03-04 04:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:30 UTC	2	$192	157	155	+2	Down	+$14	03-04 04:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-08 05:30 UTC	33	$174	142	140	+2	Up	-$4	03-08 05:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 03:45 UTC	2	$165	100	99	+1	Up	+$32	03-04 04:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 16:30 UTC	26	$152	136	134	+2	Up	-$5	03-10 16:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 15:00 UTC	21	$151	127	125	+2	Down	+$1	03-10 15:09
bitcoin up or down march 11 10pm et	32	$145	119	119	+0	Down	+$1	03-12 02:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-09 03:30 UTC	18	$136	116	114	+1	Down	-$10	03-09 03:43
bitcoin up or down march 3 8pm et	4	$136	102	102	+0	Up	+$16	03-04 01:37
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 16:00 UTC	19	$130	85	84	+0	Down	+$1	03-10 16:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:00 UTC	2	$129	145	143	+2	Down	-$51	03-04 04:02
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-09 14:00 UTC	25	$127	119	118	+2	Down	-$6	03-09 14:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-08 23:15 UTC	15	$125	98	97	+1	Up	+$17	03-08 23:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 16:45 UTC	16	$122	99	98	+1	Down	+$1	03-10 16:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 05:00 UTC	23	$120	82	79	+3	Up	+$1	03-10 05:08
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-08 18:15 UTC	21	$120	113	111	+2	Up	-$1	03-08 18:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:15 UTC	2	$115	67	66	+1	Down	+$16	03-04 04:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-08 23:00 UTC	13	$108	103	102	+1	Up	-$3	03-08 23:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-08 08:30 UTC	23	$107	192	72	+120	Up	-$2	03-08 08:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-09 20:00 UTC	23	$106	89	88	+1	Up	+$4	03-09 20:07
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 22:15 UTC	16	$102	140	127	+13	Down	+$10	03-06 22:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-09 16:45 UTC	18	$100	105	104	+2	Down	-$6	03-09 16:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 19:00:37	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	12	87¢	$10	0xead50c…
11-05 18:28:21	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x22edca…
11-04 16:55:45	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xd2a3ac…
11-04 01:10:01	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	17¢	$7	0xa83ee4…
11-04 00:19:33	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	24	82¢	$19	0xa460ff…
11-04 00:16:10	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	28¢	$3	0xad44e3…
11-03 23:12:22	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0xf9f9a0…
11-03 01:51:21	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	48¢	$8	0x3e153f…
11-02 15:34:07	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	15	72¢	$10	0x3cd8af…
11-02 06:11:28	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x5120f0…
10-31 14:37:19	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	26¢	$2	0xfc71d9…
10-30 16:55:40	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0xf6bb16…
10-29 13:30:25	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0xf53cdd…
10-29 13:28:56	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	30¢	$10	0x3b42d2…
10-28 14:37:20	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0x28c9bc…
10-28 09:44:05	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	23¢	$4	0x712ccf…
10-24 20:48:24	UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	Alexander Volkanovski	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x0a5a17…
10-24 20:16:27	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x9a1ef2…
10-24 20:07:38	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Petr Yan	SELL	8	29¢	$2	0x49c39e…
10-24 17:46:51	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Petr Yan	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x083348…
10-22 07:40:36	Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	No	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xbdf041…
10-21 12:40:20	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x35471f…
10-21 12:09:24	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x7ad41f…
10-20 19:21:56	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	18	21¢	$4	0x5d8d6e…
10-19 03:38:03	Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0x11639a…
10-18 20:59:44	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?	Yes	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x19b7a8…
10-18 15:22:48	Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0xa1a4d0…
10-15 16:46:10	Will there be 1 US aircraft carrier in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xc68255…
10-15 06:11:46	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%?	No	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x9c0935…
10-14 16:30:19	Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x3c6733…
10-14 11:21:22	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0x465d2c…
10-13 17:53:22	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	18	29¢	$5	0x0d14d7…
10-12 20:40:36	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x17882c…
10-12 19:22:08	Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	No	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0xf78e9b…
10-12 19:17:59	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x286261…
10-12 19:17:24	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	22	80¢	$18	0xa718eb…
10-12 17:20:33	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	SELL	7	58¢	$4	0x8e061a…
10-12 16:35:51	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x3db266…
10-12 16:15:06	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xca4ada…
10-12 16:01:17	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x293925…
10-12 15:01:42	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xc90b2c…
10-12 13:41:33	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x399566…
10-12 12:27:35	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x8ebfbe…
10-12 11:11:54	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x5f2115…
10-12 02:17:21	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x11258c…
10-11 15:16:58	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	16¢	$8	0x28be2a…
10-11 14:56:19	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x88ede4…
10-11 12:54:42	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x3279bb…
10-11 02:51:53	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x8ef4e9…
10-11 01:09:00	Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x279c33…
10-11 00:43:48	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xf71bf5…
10-10 22:05:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 11?	No	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0x736dc5…
10-10 21:59:55	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0xc39b90…
10-10 21:40:54	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	27¢	$11	0x51a40f…
10-10 20:26:04	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%?	No	BUY	16	68¢	$11	0x76a78d…
10-10 20:25:45	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x29b788…
10-10 20:19:34	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0xd9e804…
10-10 16:40:31	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	38¢	$13	0x6d4926…
10-10 16:08:09	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?	Yes	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0xfd417d…
10-10 13:01:43	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 10?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x592bdd…
10-10 10:38:28	Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x561f6a…
10-10 07:25:34	Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xda0b8a…
10-10 04:58:24	Will MrBeast say "Build" during his next gaming YouTube video?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x06deb7…
10-10 03:13:23	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xd8e74d…
10-10 02:22:50	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xac5e64…
10-10 02:22:50	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x4bc6c1…
10-10 01:14:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 11?	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0xfc8ddb…
10-10 01:06:14	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x345d13…
10-10 00:51:47	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 10?	No	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0xfaaa4e…
10-10 00:45:56	Will Domino's say "DoorDash" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x8edfe4…
10-10 00:37:40	Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xb92518…
10-09 22:24:22	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x6bbd82…
10-09 21:24:53	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0xc995d7…
10-09 18:10:46	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0xa22f07…
10-08 18:47:24	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%?	Yes	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0xa3bbe7…
10-08 18:15:03	Will the median home value in the US be less than $403,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	16	2¢	$0	0x01c26c…
10-08 12:10:56	Will PepsiCo say "Permissible" during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x179e1c…
10-08 10:36:41	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xcfa8c4…
10-08 06:41:05	Will MrBeast say "Build" during his next gaming YouTube video?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xff0cf0…
10-08 04:28:26	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x873938…
10-08 03:34:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 8?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xdd9c29…
10-08 00:26:32	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xc205c6…
10-07 20:41:00	Will PCN win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Yes	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0x584c62…
10-07 19:04:31	Will there be 1 US aircraft carrier in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xea1ad7…
10-07 18:41:22	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on October 7?	No	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0xeedce0…
10-07 14:54:05	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,126,000 and $1,137,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xe665f8…
10-07 14:04:31	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xf77766…
10-07 07:47:14	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 7?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x02dba7…
10-07 02:45:45	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on October 7?	No	BUY	7	37¢	$2	0x433ad6…
10-07 02:26:12	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x708e2f…
10-07 01:51:39	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x974b0e…
10-07 01:49:44	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xa87436…
10-07 00:52:21	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	26¢	$7	0x331d7c…
10-07 00:50:41	Will PepsiCo say "Permissible" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0x34cac7…
10-07 00:50:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xc887c1…
10-07 00:47:49	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x35d5d8…
10-07 00:46:49	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 7?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x41a1bd…
10-07 00:29:55	Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	No	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xa99f06…
10-07 00:28:16	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,126,000 and $1,137,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x37ec28…
10-07 00:16:42	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x085c76…