Jovial-Diary — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$307

Unrealized P&L

+$97

Hit rate

60.9%

Resolved

418

Trades

695

lifetime

Volume

$9.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$678

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 10-29 22:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 142 days

Categories

Other

61% 79% +$134

Politics

32% 61% +$647

Tech

5% 57% -$450

Crypto

1% 82% -$3

Pop-Culture

0% 25% -$18

Sports

0% 87% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
over 60m committed to the 1w public sale	No	+903	$551	72¢	$646	+$95	10-17 11:33
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	+60	$30	52¢	$31	+$1	10-29 22:42
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	No	-1	-$1	94¢	$-1	+$0	05-16 16:45
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?	Yes	-2	-$2	37¢	$-1	+$1	05-16 16:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	2	$783	473	473	+0	open	—	10-28 10:51
over 60m committed to the 1w public sale	1	$551	903	0	+903	open	—	10-17 11:33
Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 6% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	1	$543	836	0	+836	open	—	10-25 17:31
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	3	$397	641	0	+641	open	—	10-28 22:36
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	2	$370	239	239	+0	open	—	10-20 18:36
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	1	$300	770	0	+770	Yes	-$300	10-20 20:08
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 16m?	1	$253	376	0	+376	No	+$123	10-23 11:43
Will Abdul El-Sayed run 0 to 3 points behind Jocelyn Benson?	1	$252	679	0	+679	open	—	10-29 16:15
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	1	$235	826	0	+826	open	—	10-15 19:30
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	3	$229	163	163	+0	open	—	10-22 05:38
Will United Torah Judaism win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	4	$220	548	216	+332	open	—	10-27 22:14
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be 11,200,000 or more?	1	$210	283	0	+283	open	—	10-19 05:36
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-04 House election by 60%-65%?	1	$205	289	0	+289	open	—	10-09 16:02
Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$200	356	356	+0	open	—	10-27 17:15
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	1	$189	337	0	+337	open	—	10-19 00:49
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 290,000 and 305,000?	1	$185	979	0	+979	open	—	10-17 08:43
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	1	$162	218	0	+218	open	—	10-13 13:40
Will Bruce Blakeman win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026?	1	$149	270	0	+270	open	—	10-16 08:02
Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	1	$148	201	0	+201	No	+$53	10-19 06:03
OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?	1	$140	303	0	+303	Yes	-$140	10-15 19:31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kamala Harris by October 31, 2026?	1	$130	194	0	+194	Yes	+$64	10-07 22:22
will donald trump visit new hampshire before the midterms	1	$117	159	0	+159	open	—	10-14 23:22
Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	2	$115	151	151	+0	open	—	10-28 20:02
Will The Weeknd be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	1	$109	188	0	+188	open	—	10-16 19:58
Will "Stay" by The Kid LAROI (with Justin Bieber) be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	1	$93	118	0	+118	open	—	10-22 09:46
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	1	$84	144	0	+144	open	—	10-14 23:18
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	1	$73	209	0	+209	open	—	10-15 16:47
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	2	$53	87	87	+0	Yes	-$51	10-14 12:39
Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	1	$52	138	0	+138	Yes	+$85	09-28 18:46
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	1	$51	190	0	+190	No	-$51	10-07 21:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 22:42:28	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xe83c68…
10-29 16:15:59	Will Abdul El-Sayed run 0 to 3 points behind Jocelyn Benson?	Yes	BUY	679	37¢	$252	0x77c2d7…
10-28 22:36:59	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	631	62¢	$391	0xef9822…
10-28 20:02:13	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	151	11¢	$17	0xa2aa23…
10-28 10:51:55	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	SELL	473	92¢	$437	0xf26173…
10-28 09:15:22	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	4	62¢	$3	0xb66950…
10-28 09:11:34	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x15e89e…
10-27 22:14:24	Will United Torah Judaism win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	115	1¢	$1	0x3c5815…
10-27 21:13:48	Will United Torah Judaism win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	71	4¢	$3	0x072c25…
10-27 20:14:33	Will United Torah Judaism win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	30	22¢	$7	0xc036ea…
10-27 17:15:06	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	356	2¢	$6	0x0d2b97…
10-25 17:31:20	Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 6% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	836	65¢	$543	0xdbabfe…
10-23 11:43:32	Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 16m?	No	BUY	376	67¢	$253	0xa8a118…
10-23 00:58:36	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	BUY	473	73¢	$346	0x1a6559…
10-22 22:08:20	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	356	54¢	$194	0x67de3e…
10-22 09:46:26	Will "Stay" by The Kid LAROI (with Justin Bieber) be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	118	79¢	$93	0xe544ce…
10-22 09:45:57	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?	Yes	BUY	105	11¢	$12	0xa5a3df…
10-22 05:38:56	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	No	SELL	116	90¢	$105	0x27147e…
10-20 20:08:45	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	770	39¢	$300	0x17c534…
10-20 18:36:54	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	30	91¢	$28	0x70c99f…
10-20 18:36:41	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	No	SELL	47	92¢	$43	0xc2afb9…
10-20 18:36:24	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	239	96¢	$230	0xaf8b0b…
10-19 06:03:32	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	No	BUY	201	74¢	$148	0x253ddd…
10-19 05:36:51	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be 11,200,000 or more?	No	BUY	283	74¢	$210	0x355671…
10-19 00:49:42	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	No	BUY	337	56¢	$189	0x047567…
10-17 11:33:03	over 60m committed to the 1w public sale	No	BUY	903	61¢	$551	0x5fbff0…
10-17 08:43:15	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 290,000 and 305,000?	Yes	BUY	979	19¢	$185	0x643abf…
10-16 19:58:41	Will The Weeknd be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	No	BUY	188	58¢	$109	0x1aedb5…
10-16 14:39:19	Will United Torah Judaism win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	548	38¢	$209	0x8a8e24…
10-16 08:02:00	Will Bruce Blakeman win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	270	55¢	$149	0x49ddbe…
10-15 19:31:16	OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	303	46¢	$140	0xfbc5b7…
10-15 19:30:47	Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	826	28¢	$235	0x927842…
10-15 16:47:52	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	209	35¢	$73	0x6809a3…
10-14 23:22:31	will donald trump visit new hampshire before the midterms	No	BUY	159	74¢	$117	0x5403b1…
10-14 23:18:52	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	59¢	$84	0x3cfa5f…
10-14 12:39:39	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	SELL	87	1¢	$1	0xa86e5d…
10-13 13:40:23	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	No	BUY	218	74¢	$162	0x498313…
10-11 18:33:37	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	239	59¢	$141	0x5da2b7…
10-09 16:22:35	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	151	65¢	$98	0x1142bc…
10-09 16:02:35	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-04 House election by 60%-65%?	No	BUY	289	71¢	$205	0x7b0993…
10-08 00:47:17	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	30	62¢	$19	0x3dc7a3…
10-07 22:50:13	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	No	BUY	163	50¢	$81	0x3e2797…
10-07 22:22:52	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kamala Harris by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	194	67¢	$130	0x6b76ba…
10-07 21:12:49	Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	190	27¢	$51	0x6e8b45…
10-06 02:45:22	Will Charles Page win the next Drummond–Bois-Francs Quebec National Assembly election?	No	SELL	135	14¢	$19	0x02d87e…
10-04 22:38:08	Will Capitão Contar win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?	Yes	SELL	81	7¢	$6	0xc791d0…
10-04 16:38:35	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	6¢	$2	0x9ebce6…
10-03 22:38:37	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	106	4¢	$4	0xb69208…
10-03 22:05:46	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xaa6b10…
10-03 19:13:18	Will "East of Eden: Limited Series" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0xb4234d…
10-03 19:12:57	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	52	22¢	$11	0xeaee7c…
10-03 19:12:39	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	126	25¢	$31	0x858b1f…
10-03 08:31:06	will trump say somalia during his midterm rally in ohio october 3	Yes	BUY	13	59¢	$7	0xa6d801…
10-03 08:22:50	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	40¢	$15	0x8f4e2e…
10-02 18:38:05	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?	No	BUY	45	43¢	$19	0x8f1bc4…
10-02 15:01:39	Will Capitão Contar win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?	Yes	BUY	81	30¢	$24	0x2935ac…
10-02 06:27:51	Will Humberto Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x59b2f8…
10-02 06:27:44	Will Marcio Bittar win the most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election?	Yes	BUY	110	40¢	$44	0x58c6cd…
10-02 06:23:56	Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	No	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xb9c8cb…
10-02 05:19:53	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	87	60¢	$52	0x6dbc5a…
10-02 00:43:36	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	No	SELL	105	20¢	$21	0xbe24eb…
09-28 18:48:17	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	No	BUY	61	18¢	$11	0x73643e…
09-28 18:47:15	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	No	BUY	44	31¢	$14	0x990a6d…
09-28 18:47:02	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	No	BUY	105	24¢	$25	0x257349…
09-28 18:46:50	Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	138	38¢	$52	0x1563fb…
09-28 13:44:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	No	BUY	88	43¢	$38	0x1efc59…
09-27 08:59:44	Will Chloé Fauchon win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	No	BUY	59	29¢	$17	0xd263ac…
09-26 18:20:36	Will Charles Page win the next Drummond–Bois-Francs Quebec National Assembly election?	No	BUY	135	20¢	$27	0xe4241c…
09-26 18:20:26	Will Étienne Grandmont win the next Taschereau Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	107	44¢	$47	0x12d607…
09-26 10:09:45	Will Taylor Swift win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	BUY	58	33¢	$19	0x62ce88…
09-25 18:55:53	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	No	BUY	230	11¢	$25	0xf6f6a4…
09-25 18:55:44	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	No	BUY	146	19¢	$28	0x05608e…
09-25 18:55:35	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?	No	BUY	126	32¢	$40	0x3420cd…
09-25 18:55:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	136	25¢	$35	0x7c837b…
09-25 18:55:17	Will "Resident Evil" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Yes	BUY	81	23¢	$19	0x47dc5c…
09-24 18:38:39	Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	11¢	$6	0xd989cc…
09-24 18:38:29	Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	10¢	$4	0x44cd3a…
09-23 18:56:20	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xa5e120…
09-23 18:27:26	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0x5b4315…
09-22 19:04:31	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?	No	BUY	19	73¢	$14	0xe25ee4…
09-22 18:53:07	Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	32¢	$15	0xb0cddc…
09-20 16:29:10	Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	74¢	$25	0x6bdb4f…
09-19 15:39:15	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18?	Yes	BUY	103	15¢	$15	0xca60a7…
09-18 15:17:48	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x55e7b2…
09-12 14:22:42	Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xabb52b…
09-06 08:13:30	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x23113a…
09-06 07:07:00	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x7cc68a…
09-06 05:41:07	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xddfe98…
09-05 14:57:54	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x55f89f…
09-02 20:31:07	Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x2bd999…
09-02 19:56:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x11cc88…
09-02 19:56:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x806033…
08-30 10:47:12	Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xdce2b1…
08-30 10:44:55	Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	48	10¢	$5	0xde85e5…
08-30 10:44:49	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0xbed986…
08-30 10:44:48	US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	No	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xb43b82…
08-30 10:36:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x5d766a…
08-30 10:36:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xdf9dfb…
08-29 19:25:16	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 4 2026	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x071237…
08-29 16:08:21	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x16a3c6…