Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

50.4%

Resolved

116

Trades

212

lifetime

Volume

$541

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

9 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 10-25 22:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

42% 42% +$73

Politics

39% 23% -$76

Crypto

19% 38% -$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+9	$3	34¢	$3	$0	10-25 21:56
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+32	$5	6¢	$2	-$3	10-25 20:29
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	+5	$2	26¢	$1	-$1	10-25 14:47
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+14	$4	6¢	$1	-$3	10-10 20:51
saudi houthi ceasefire agreement announced by october 31	Yes	+14	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	10-15 07:00
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	+25	$2	2¢	$0	-$2	10-05 07:39
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 28	No	+13	$2	2¢	$0	-$2	10-24 20:35
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+7	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	10-01 21:51
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+8	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	10-01 21:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$45	622	622	+0	Yes	-$35	03-01 01:32
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	2	$38	29	29	+0	No	+$18	09-30 08:47
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$37	417	417	+0	Yes	-$3	02-28 20:05
Will Houthis target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026?	2	$20	59	0	+59	Yes	-$20	09-07 06:54
iran successfully targets shipping on august 10 2026 20260729163314530	2	$19	47	47	+0	No	+$9	08-10 18:09
will houthis successfully target shipping on august 11 2026 20260722225036935	2	$19	20	20	+0	Yes	+$17	08-11 21:18
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026?	2	$18	19	19	+0	No	+$12	09-05 15:19
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	1	$18	113	0	+113	Yes	-$18	05-22 23:37
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 24, 2026?	2	$14	15	15	+0	Yes	+$12	08-25 17:56
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?	2	$13	14	14	+0	Yes	+$11	08-27 07:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	10-02 19:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	2	$11	7	7	+0	Up	+$1	10-02 16:42
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?	2	$10	10	10	+0	No	+$8	10-19 22:21
Will Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026?	1	$10	16	0	+16	No	-$10	08-30 22:48
Will Iran target Qatar by August 31, 2026?	2	$10	20	0	+20	No	-$10	08-30 22:58
will riyadh airport reopen by october 31 2026	2	$9	8	8	+0	open	—	10-24 09:50
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	2	$9	7	7	+0	Yes	+$4	10-05 07:36
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 7, 2026?	2	$9	8	8	+0	Yes	+$6	10-09 07:32
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	2	$9	15	15	+0	open	—	10-05 08:26
iran successfully targets shipping on august 14 2026 20260729163314534	2	$6	7	7	+0	Yes	+$4	08-15 23:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	2	$6	108	0	+108	Up	-$6	10-02 19:24
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 12?	2	$5	6	6	+0	No	+$3	10-11 02:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	5	$5	12	0	+12	Down	+$0	10-02 16:58
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	5	$5	32	0	+32	open	—	10-25 20:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:40 UTC	1	$5	7	0	+7	Down	+$2	10-13 12:40
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 3, 2026?	2	$5	4	4	+0	Yes	+$3	10-07 13:34
military action against king khalid international airport ruh by october 31	2	$5	7	7	+0	open	—	10-15 06:51
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	4	$4	14	0	+14	open	—	10-10 20:51
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 14?	1	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	10-13 13:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	Down	+$2	10-21 18:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 22:07:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xc7e7fd…
10-25 22:05:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x4bdb1f…
10-25 22:05:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x059f6c…
10-25 22:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xaf8c9d…
10-25 21:58:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	706	0¢	$1	0x66b803…
10-25 21:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	706	0¢	$1	0xeda8cc…
10-25 21:56:23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x528dc2…
10-25 20:30:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x3f3d7f…
10-25 20:29:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x4cdd46…
10-25 15:20:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xe3fbf1…
10-25 15:00:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x84c6fa…
10-25 14:59:56	Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x70ad69…
10-25 14:58:02	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xb1d41c…
10-25 14:54:21	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x4cb1b8…
10-25 14:48:35	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x603efe…
10-25 14:47:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xa2d92e…
10-24 20:35:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x68ef98…
10-24 19:11:03	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0xd2d4e8…
10-24 10:17:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xc9a114…
10-24 09:50:30	Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?	No	SELL	8	87¢	$7	0x8df630…
10-21 20:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x74e86c…
10-21 20:40:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x592ec2…
10-21 20:25:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x4404f4…
10-21 20:22:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xc663e6…
10-21 20:20:06	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7445f7…
10-21 19:45:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xdb1ac0…
10-21 19:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x8060b9…
10-21 18:16:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xda31da…
10-21 18:16:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xb763fd…
10-21 18:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x39b0b9…
10-21 18:07:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xec2661…
10-21 18:07:02	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 21?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x2b6da9…
10-21 08:16:23	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7e38a1…
10-20 12:28:24	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 21?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x31d476…
10-20 07:44:55	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 14?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xc35b7c…
10-19 22:29:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xb35fc7…
10-19 22:23:35	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xc63f4c…
10-19 22:22:54	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x851480…
10-19 22:21:21	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$9	0xab7ea8…
10-17 14:15:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xf8ab8f…
10-16 06:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xd13f11…
10-15 08:30:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xf6f292…
10-15 07:35:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 07:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x5f5ec8…
10-15 07:30:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 07:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x5d4a34…
10-15 07:09:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 07:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x99d32e…
10-15 07:02:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x03ab77…
10-15 07:00:17	saudi houthi ceasefire agreement announced by october 31	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x6e81d9…
10-15 06:57:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x2ebbf8…
10-15 06:55:25	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 28	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x6ea44d…
10-15 06:51:20	military action against king khalid international airport ruh by october 31	No	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0x61dbb7…
10-14 12:06:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 12:05 UTC	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x92549a…
10-14 12:04:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x19f7f7…
10-14 12:01:44	military action against king khalid international airport ruh by october 15	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x305be3…
10-13 21:10:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 21:10 UTC	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x80ae43…
10-13 20:32:06	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x9a8e85…
10-13 20:31:48	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 22?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x8192d0…
10-13 20:31:31	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x3531ef…
10-13 13:41:10	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 14?	Yes	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0xf255d9…
10-13 12:45:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xed996c…
10-13 12:40:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:40 UTC	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x9af834…
10-13 12:39:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:35 UTC	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x8f996f…
10-13 12:29:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xf490b3…
10-13 12:25:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:25 UTC	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x6d412b…
10-13 12:15:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x90848a…
10-13 12:10:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x6f3818…
10-13 07:43:43	turkey military action against yemen by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x57c01e…
10-13 07:42:07	military action against king khalid international airport ruh by october 31	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x51eb50…
10-13 07:41:32	will riyadh airport reopen by october 31 2026	No	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xc9ad8a…
10-11 22:26:21	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 17?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x8be0ed…
10-11 02:09:48	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 25?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x2e4379…
10-11 02:09:15	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 12?	Yes	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0x894120…
10-11 00:12:58	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 25?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x18aa6a…
10-10 20:52:13	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa95bb3…
10-10 20:51:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd679b8…
10-10 09:09:54	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x40ffb1…
10-09 22:28:40	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xe238ea…
10-09 22:22:41	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x85a479…
10-09 22:19:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xdd1dfe…
10-09 09:13:45	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 7?	Yes	SELL	3	86¢	$3	0x8d0fa1…
10-09 07:43:46	Syrian troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x7dd69d…
10-09 07:41:06	Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x4fd9ef…
10-09 07:32:25	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x3a62ce…
10-09 07:32:04	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x074b7f…
10-08 14:14:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x913158…
10-08 14:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa52e0c…
10-08 14:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x24bff2…
10-08 14:03:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x484458…
10-08 07:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x653395…
10-07 17:42:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x684dbe…
10-07 17:39:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xe4f9eb…
10-07 17:29:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xf76541…
10-07 17:28:32	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x2032ad…
10-07 17:23:55	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x15f21a…
10-07 14:28:43	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xc03f0a…
10-07 13:34:29	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0xd80f47…
10-05 08:42:22	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 7?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x7c64b9…
10-05 08:26:47	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	25¢	$4	0x6a5cca…
10-05 08:24:01	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0x21172a…
10-05 08:23:37	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x014d58…
10-05 07:51:52	Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x5a6ed1…