Quaint-Tension — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.99K

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

71.2%

Resolved

Trades

823

lifetime

Volume

$173.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$211

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-22 00:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Politics

85% 49% +$2,330

Other

8% 61% +$474

Tech

7% 75% +$189

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes		-232	-$9	0¢	$-1	+$8	04-30 19:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	20	$16.4K	10,793	10,793	+0	Yes	+$483	06-14 12:47
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	81	$15.2K	13,886	13,457	+429	Yes	+$769	06-20 00:55
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	49	$14.6K	17,043	9,362	+7,681	Yes	+$275	06-14 13:10
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	14	$10.8K	8,891	8,891	+0	Yes	-$445	06-13 11:05
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	52	$10.2K	13,016	13,016	+0	Yes	-$711	06-14 11:28
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14	31	$8.6K	13,346	13,346	+0	Yes	+$531	06-14 21:10
will trump visit china by march 31	7	$7.4K	5,312	2,731	+2,581	No	+$331	03-26 07:40
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	45	$6.3K	15,292	15,292	+0	open	—	10-19 06:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	6	$5.1K	4,194	4,194	-0	Yes	+$250	02-28 19:52
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	3	$4.6K	3,290	3,290	+0	Yes	+$493	05-25 10:11
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	3	$4.0K	3,000	1,500	+1,500	Yes	+$375	05-23 22:05
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	2	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$52	09-10 10:37
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	13	$3.9K	3,124	3,624	-500	No	+$90	04-01 00:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$3.7K	4,814	4,814	+0	Yes	+$3,287	04-07 23:07
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	2	$3.0K	2,046	2,046	+0	Yes	-$49	06-14 12:48
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$2.6K	2,057	1,028	+1,028	Yes	+$261	05-10 18:13
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?	19	$2.5K	2,087	2,087	+0	Yes	-$88	06-14 12:47
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	12	$2.4K	1,635	1,635	+0	No	-$15	04-19 14:10
will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	1	$2.4K	2,500	0	+2,500	Yes	+$145	07-25 03:33
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	25	$2.2K	2,696	2,696	+0	Yes	+$76	08-27 09:57
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	29	$2.1K	4,765	4,765	+0	No	+$506	07-13 11:13
Does Ox Alpha belong to Google?	1	$2.1K	2,109	0	+2,109	No	+$55	08-26 09:08
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	10	$2.0K	2,394	2,394	+0	No	-$1,192	04-19 14:13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	4	$2.0K	1,546	738	+807	No	-$856	04-19 10:25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	5	$2.0K	2,253	2,253	+0	No	+$149	05-28 15:11
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	14	$1.9K	2,941	0	+2,941	No	+$1,029	04-19 12:47
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	33	$1.8K	1,900	1,900	+0	Yes	+$19	04-01 21:05
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	5	$1.8K	1,786	1,786	-0	No	-$725	09-18 11:04
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	5	$1.7K	2,302	2,302	-0	No	-$1,398	06-06 00:12
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	13	$1.5K	1,938	1,938	-0	No	-$627	06-14 02:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 00:11:09	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	308	39¢	$120	0x449352…
10-19 06:42:18	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	296	27¢	$80	0x6ffdd8…
10-19 06:18:24	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	580	27¢	$157	0xa5d41e…
09-28 12:25:11	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	SELL	1,057	31¢	$332	0xe0e0e1…
09-22 06:41:30	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	478	20¢	$96	0xdd9f71…
09-21 15:49:38	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x07d1e3…
09-18 13:01:54	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	48	20¢	$10	0x6868a9…
09-18 11:30:51	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0xba9277…
09-18 11:12:12	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	23	57¢	$13	0x809848…
09-18 11:04:57	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	320	57¢	$182	0x80c672…
09-18 11:04:19	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,042	10¢	$105	0xbe7c73…
09-17 13:47:13	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	20¢	$40	0x776bdd…
09-17 09:57:00	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x1352fd…
09-17 06:50:33	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	75	20¢	$15	0x27b350…
09-17 00:24:15	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0xba7f89…
09-15 15:38:31	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3,000	19¢	$570	0x1a3313…
09-15 12:46:51	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3,000	18¢	$540	0xdfb925…
09-15 11:14:34	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,500	17¢	$255	0x426d74…
09-14 21:02:51	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	337	50¢	$168	0xfd8832…
09-10 10:37:51	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0xdf245d…
09-09 04:12:06	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,000	97¢	$1,940	0x4182a0…
09-09 02:35:58	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	93	63¢	$59	0xd179dd…
09-09 02:35:58	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	54	63¢	$34	0x8e26a3…
09-09 02:35:58	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	63¢	$9	0x3908ed…
09-09 02:35:58	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	43	63¢	$27	0x01f4f5…
09-09 02:12:52	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x8b0c1e…
09-09 01:51:58	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	63¢	$9	0xe7c0a9…
09-09 01:51:58	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x5670c7…
09-09 01:47:30	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x1fce0a…
09-09 01:31:09	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3,084	17¢	$524	0x3e69ba…
09-09 00:12:48	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0xeb29d7…
09-09 00:12:48	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	63¢	$9	0x5c13a5…
09-08 08:13:25	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	9	60¢	$6	0x2363e5…
09-08 08:10:40	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	60¢	$9	0xf852f3…
09-08 08:10:40	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0x461ed0…
09-08 08:10:27	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	73	60¢	$44	0xc6a48c…
09-08 08:10:22	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	60¢	$9	0x840423…
09-08 08:10:22	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0x835080…
09-06 12:50:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	286	37¢	$106	0xc31c28…
09-06 12:00:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0xd39fed…
09-06 11:58:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0xfae7de…
09-06 11:22:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	37¢	$4	0x74ed5b…
09-06 10:19:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	135	37¢	$50	0x5e447d…
09-06 05:59:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	37¢	$11	0x2584d6…
09-06 05:03:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xc391f5…
09-05 11:53:46	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	37¢	$20	0xc262d5…
09-05 11:43:46	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x8f56c1…
09-05 09:21:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	37¢	$13	0xc02f82…
09-02 12:15:00	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	299	65¢	$194	0xe2cdb7…
09-02 12:14:25	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x1740fe…
09-02 12:13:30	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	65¢	$4	0x48cadf…
09-02 12:11:22	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	300	60¢	$180	0xb7db83…
09-02 05:58:45	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,021	41¢	$416	0x5dd26a…
09-01 16:06:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	40¢	$8	0x2aa2e1…
09-01 15:40:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	40¢	$13	0x762267…
09-01 15:32:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xc5c2e9…
09-01 15:24:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x5a9d53…
09-01 13:29:04	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	40¢	$47	0xd6d8fc…
09-01 13:18:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x02a55b…
09-01 12:38:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	267	40¢	$107	0x5719e2…
09-01 10:42:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x9c9a61…
09-01 10:39:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0xf3664c…
08-28 15:12:54	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	209	40¢	$83	0xa5990f…
08-28 10:19:01	Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	No	SELL	70	90¢	$63	0xfdd2d2…
08-28 10:18:16	Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	627	21¢	$132	0xd561fb…
08-28 01:44:33	Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	70	78¢	$54	0x9dca3d…
08-27 21:53:43	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	33	33¢	$11	0x0d354f…
08-27 21:47:40	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	106	33¢	$35	0x30dad6…
08-27 21:36:07	Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	627	21¢	$133	0x5dab8a…
08-27 09:57:49	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	461	87¢	$401	0x0e4987…
08-27 09:57:30	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	461	87¢	$401	0xc2fda0…
08-26 09:08:42	Does Ox Alpha belong to Google?	No	BUY	2,109	97¢	$2,054	0x3a67a1…
08-26 09:03:33	Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?	Yes	BUY	181	98¢	$177	0x1c5ab1…
08-26 09:00:34	Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?	Yes	BUY	585	97¢	$569	0xca472b…
08-26 09:00:30	Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?	Yes	BUY	636	97¢	$616	0xbdc657…
08-26 02:38:19	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	47	22¢	$10	0xe5a555…
08-26 02:37:40	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xc34216…
08-26 02:33:46	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	504	20¢	$100	0x1d64b5…
08-18 08:08:30	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	380	29¢	$111	0xb1596a…
08-18 08:07:36	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	922	76¢	$697	0xe143c0…
08-07 10:57:48	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	335	56¢	$189	0x2f07db…
08-07 10:57:06	Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	196	57¢	$112	0x1e618e…
07-31 11:39:14	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	SELL	1,266	3¢	$44	0x0df313…
07-31 04:52:54	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	254	25¢	$64	0x4ed7f9…
07-31 03:52:15	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	65	25¢	$16	0x1c9010…
07-31 03:52:11	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	435	25¢	$109	0x7db734…
07-31 03:34:21	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	27¢	$272	0x7de725…
07-31 03:03:00	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	323	31¢	$100	0xca9b85…
07-31 02:58:36	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xb38032…
07-31 02:57:24	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x69bfec…
07-31 02:54:53	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xdc6186…
07-31 02:32:09	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x2732af…
07-31 02:30:59	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x3435ec…
07-31 02:26:44	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x4979b1…
07-31 02:25:41	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xcb961e…
07-31 02:22:39	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xd3be6e…
07-31 02:21:53	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x00de9d…
07-31 02:19:24	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xa1192d…
07-31 02:17:24	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x2b1740…
07-31 02:15:23	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x071b20…