Thoughtful-Road — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$56

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

40.7%

Resolved

Trades

270

lifetime

Volume

$1.39K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 05-14 22:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

92% 61% $-56

Sports

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	14	$130	111	111	+0	Down	$-10	05-09 09:44
btc updown 15m 1770938100	5	$93	63	63	+1	open	—	02-12 23:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	7	$67	62	44	+18	Up	$-13	05-12 16:06
btc updown 15m 1775866500	6	$64	38	38	+1	open	—	04-11 00:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	8	$64	65	65	+0	Down	$-16	05-09 09:56
btc updown 15m 1770985800	4	$54	43	42	+1	open	—	02-13 12:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	8	$44	33	33	+0	Down	+$2	05-08 23:44
nfl la sea 2026 01 25	2	$40	74	0	+74	open	—	01-26 00:55
nfl ne den 2026 01 25	2	$38	22	22	+0	open	—	01-25 23:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	5	$37	129	16	+113	Down	$-7	05-13 23:29
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	2	$36	61	0	+61	open	—	01-27 19:34
btc updown 15m 1770933600	4	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	02-12 22:15
btc updown 15m 1776041100	9	$34	87	54	+33	open	—	04-13 00:57
btc updown 15m 1770937200	8	$28	39	33	+6	open	—	02-12 23:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	7	$28	17	17	+0	Up	+$2	05-05 22:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	5	$27	22	15	+7	Down	+$4	05-12 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	8	$26	17	17	+0	Up	+$1	05-06 00:05
btc updown 15m 1770936300	8	$26	21	21	+0	open	—	02-12 22:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	6	$23	16	16	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 13:20
btc updown 15m 1775867400	6	$23	29	28	+1	open	—	04-11 00:38
btc updown 15m 1770935400	2	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	02-12 22:43
btc updown 15m 1771100100	4	$21	14	14	+0	open	—	02-14 20:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	2	$20	10	10	+0	Up	+$0	05-11 22:59
btc updown 15m 1770932700	3	$17	20	7	+13	open	—	02-12 21:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	6	$16	12	12	+0	Down	+$0	05-08 23:30
btc updown 15m 1770934500	4	$16	13	13	+0	open	—	02-12 22:29
btc updown 15m 1776789900	4	$15	9	9	+0	open	—	04-21 16:59
btc updown 15m 1770907500	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	02-12 14:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	4	$13	9	8	+0	open	—	04-25 11:23
btc updown 15m 1770588900	2	$11	8	8	+0	open	—	02-08 22:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 22:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x3b6a30…
05-13 23:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	32	32¢	$10	0x5344c4…
05-13 23:29:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa05c5a…
05-13 23:27:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xb361b6…
05-13 23:26:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x1e6640…
05-13 23:26:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	SELL	16	92¢	$15	0x8ec10a…
05-13 23:17:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xbd9e45…
05-13 22:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xe1457f…
05-13 21:03:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xf33828…
05-12 16:25:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xc36deb…
05-12 16:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x75ab48…
05-12 16:05:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	14	48¢	$7	0xb277ea…
05-12 16:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xb1ca8c…
05-12 16:03:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	13	70¢	$9	0x53c747…
05-12 16:03:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x4078bf…
05-12 16:03:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	16	67¢	$11	0x05a8aa…
05-12 16:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xa988f9…
05-12 15:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x9521ad…
05-12 15:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0x37eb63…
05-12 15:52:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x52551b…
05-12 15:49:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	8	71¢	$6	0x3fdadc…
05-12 15:46:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x89b2f3…
05-11 23:00:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x943de2…
05-11 22:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5b8ae4…
05-11 22:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x4acc9d…
05-09 22:51:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x0e8b5e…
05-09 10:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xc40937…
05-09 09:56:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	19	18¢	$3	0x640946…
05-09 09:54:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x3f0244…
05-09 09:53:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	16	38¢	$6	0xc45d27…
05-09 09:52:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x77c7ec…
05-09 09:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	14	56¢	$8	0xcfa3bc…
05-09 09:50:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xfb7677…
05-09 09:49:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	16	39¢	$6	0x86ba3b…
05-09 09:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x51ceff…
05-09 09:44:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0x677644…
05-09 09:44:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x2ae541…
05-09 09:44:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	17	87¢	$15	0x0734d2…
05-09 09:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xb050d5…
05-09 09:42:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	18	73¢	$13	0x9739ef…
05-09 09:41:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x25dac3…
05-09 09:41:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	14	21¢	$3	0x40cca8…
05-09 09:37:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x2bfe51…
05-09 09:37:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	21	25¢	$5	0x11bee1…
05-09 09:36:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xb8b5b8…
05-09 09:35:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	15	59¢	$9	0xc053a7…
05-09 09:35:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x286ba3…
05-09 09:35:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	16	31¢	$5	0x84af52…
05-09 09:34:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xe2e549…
05-08 23:44:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x7dc83a…
05-08 23:39:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xbb1663…
05-08 23:39:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	7	9¢	$1	0x8dcf41…
05-08 23:37:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x68f7f6…
05-08 23:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0x4920df…
05-08 23:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x4cfede…
05-08 23:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0x4d9e5f…
05-08 23:31:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x0fa31e…
05-08 23:30:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x74718f…
05-08 23:25:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x8a420c…
05-08 23:25:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	31¢	$1	0x0ab86e…
05-08 23:23:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xca27a7…
05-08 23:21:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xe11095…
05-08 23:21:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xe0a261…
05-08 12:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x37684a…
05-08 12:15:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x938d12…
05-08 12:14:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0x34c0b0…
05-08 12:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xca229c…
05-08 12:11:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x64da1a…
05-07 13:20:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xdab060…
05-07 13:18:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xbd4f49…
05-07 13:18:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	SELL	7	77¢	$6	0xfc8da4…
05-07 13:17:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x3ebeb8…
05-07 13:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	SELL	8	71¢	$5	0xad87ac…
05-07 13:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x805aaa…
05-06 13:02:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	7	74¢	$6	0xccfc29…
05-06 13:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x39e01f…
05-06 09:16:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x548b9e…
05-06 09:15:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x3c7e9d…
05-06 00:05:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x133521…
05-06 00:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x1a390a…
05-06 00:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x447fc4…
05-06 00:03:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x14d6c4…
05-06 00:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x82e07d…
05-06 00:03:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xf0b95e…
05-06 00:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	9	73¢	$6	0xe2a2a5…
05-06 00:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0xec1c69…
05-05 23:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x9aacfe…
05-05 23:58:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xadd3ed…
05-05 22:27:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	14	96¢	$14	0x3a336f…
05-05 22:25:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x16d92e…
05-05 22:25:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x04b817…
05-05 22:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0x2bad62…
05-05 22:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x38a698…
05-05 22:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0xaa580e…
05-05 22:21:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xca16c4…
05-05 22:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x2f5aab…
05-05 22:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	76¢	$2	0xa5caba…
05-05 22:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xf454db…
05-05 21:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xaa0000…
05-05 20:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x538cd7…