Rare-Cinder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$214

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.2%

Resolved

Trades

1,827

lifetime

Volume

$240.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$132

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 06-11 01:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

53% — —

Sports

43% 44% $-214

Politics

4% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nba phx bos 2026 03 16	1	$2.5K	3,255	0	+3,255	open	—	03-16 12:39
cbb pur arz 2026 03 28	3	$1.9K	1,142	1,138	+4	open	—	03-29 03:50
cbb ecar uab 2026 03 08	1	$1.8K	2,110	0	+2,110	open	—	03-08 14:45
nhl stl car 2026 03 12	1	$1.7K	2,453	0	+2,453	open	—	03-12 18:26
cbb nmxst smho 2026 03 11	1	$1.7K	2,597	0	+2,597	open	—	03-11 23:09
cbb dxst cabap 2026 03 13	1	$1.5K	2,011	0	+2,011	open	—	03-14 01:53
nba cle det 2026 02 27	1	$1.5K	2,239	0	+2,239	open	—	02-27 19:44
cbb kan arz 2026 02 28	1	$1.3K	1,589	0	+1,589	open	—	02-28 13:24
cbb nmx sdst 2026 03 13	1	$1.2K	2,201	0	+2,201	open	—	03-14 01:11
cbb pitt syra 2026 03 07	1	$1.2K	1,665	0	+1,665	open	—	03-07 16:36
nba uta phi 2026 03 04	1	$1.2K	1,475	0	+1,475	open	—	03-04 17:19
nba den okc 2026 03 09	1	$1.1K	1,550	0	+1,550	open	—	03-09 19:28
cbb fl uk 2026 03 07	1	$1.1K	1,537	0	+1,537	open	—	03-07 16:37
cs2 prv nip 2026 03 19	2	$1.0K	637	637	+0	open	—	03-19 15:04
epl bre wol 2026 03 16 bre	5	$1.0K	1,092	452	+640	open	—	03-16 22:20
cbb valp bradly 2026 03 06	1	$1.0K	1,481	0	+1,481	open	—	03-06 23:39
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	2	$1.0K	586	586	+0	open	—	05-07 12:14
cbb day stlou 2026 03 14	1	$1000	1,459	0	+1,459	open	—	03-14 14:32
cbb ncat camp 2026 03 03	1	$981	1,314	0	+1,314	open	—	03-03 15:38
cbb sfl lou 2026 03 19	2	$976	590	588	+2	open	—	03-19 22:18
nba nop tor 2026 03 27	1	$971	1,295	0	+1,295	open	—	03-27 13:30
cbb stbon geows 2026 03 04	1	$932	1,150	0	+1,150	open	—	03-04 16:08
ucl tot atm1 2026 03 18 atm1	2	$930	588	588	+0	open	—	03-18 21:31
cbb sjst frest 2026 03 03	1	$925	1,241	0	+1,241	open	—	03-03 15:41
nba mem cha 2026 03 21 spread home 18pt5	7	$901	597	597	+0	open	—	03-22 01:46
ucl tot atm1 2026 03 18 draw	9	$895	714	714	+0	open	—	03-18 21:35
dota2 mouz heroic 2026 04 08	3	$888	802	791	+11	open	—	04-08 18:37
cbb houbap no 2026 03 08	1	$888	1,346	0	+1,346	open	—	03-08 14:48
uel ast4 lil 2026 03 19 ast4	2	$887	562	562	+0	open	—	03-20 01:04
atp engel montes 2026 04 02	2	$884	517	517	+0	open	—	04-02 16:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 01:22:58	mlb tex kc 2026 06 10 spread away 1pt5	Texas Rangers	BUY	93	39¢	$36	0x5ca198…
06-11 01:22:28	mlb tex kc 2026 06 10 spread away 1pt5	Texas Rangers	BUY	99	39¢	$39	0x623592…
06-10 15:59:09	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 points karl anthony towns 17pt5	No	BUY	37	49¢	$18	0xdd2985…
06-10 15:31:37	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 points karl anthony towns 17pt5	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x155952…
06-10 14:46:12	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 points karl anthony towns 17pt5	No	BUY	343	49¢	$168	0xb64422…
06-10 13:51:57	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 points karl anthony towns 17pt5	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x931b67…
06-10 13:38:36	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 points karl anthony towns 17pt5	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x217766…
06-10 13:35:40	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 points karl anthony towns 17pt5	No	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0xaa622d…
06-02 15:42:43	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	Golden Knights	BUY	1,366	64¢	$874	0xcc399e…
06-01 00:50:30	Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	1,219	61¢	$743	0x0f7bbf…
05-30 12:06:24	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	377	53¢	$200	0x817304…
05-25 18:54:51	Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	520	52¢	$271	0xaa6d2c…
05-25 18:44:45	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	Canadiens	BUY	711	65¢	$462	0x23e344…
05-23 14:49:49	Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5	No	BUY	320	50¢	$160	0x0c34d8…
05-23 14:08:43	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	211	33¢	$69	0xf8c17a…
05-23 14:08:36	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	216	84¢	$180	0x0caca0…
05-23 14:08:17	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	408	84¢	$341	0x793d43…
05-23 14:07:42	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	SELL	209	4¢	$8	0x7b31f0…
05-23 14:07:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	209	6¢	$12	0x7dad92…
05-23 14:07:12	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	367	26¢	$97	0x123288…
05-22 13:48:05	Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)	Houston Astros	BUY	525	63¢	$331	0x42a8e0…
05-22 12:32:09	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	362	98¢	$354	0xda274f…
05-21 14:28:45	Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5	No	BUY	38	51¢	$19	0x1bdede…
05-21 14:25:48	Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xedb546…
05-21 12:30:16	Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5	No	BUY	55	51¢	$28	0x76c90c…
05-20 18:13:26	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	211	23¢	$49	0x76d88f…
05-17 14:22:07	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	360	86¢	$310	0x00f460…
05-17 14:17:50	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	SELL	501	87¢	$434	0x3406c4…
05-17 03:07:23	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	38¢	$84	0x521185…
05-16 23:46:53	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	38¢	$37	0x492742…
05-16 17:37:35	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	38¢	$16	0x67ff6b…
05-16 17:32:48	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	85	67¢	$57	0x8371d6…
05-16 16:37:05	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	277	67¢	$185	0xba9583…
05-16 16:36:41	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xe275b7…
05-16 16:34:26	Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	757	7¢	$50	0x1d2905…
05-16 16:32:58	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	453	54¢	$245	0xd5da4e…
05-16 16:32:25	San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics	Athletics	BUY	455	56¢	$255	0x013058…
05-16 16:31:45	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	460	61¢	$281	0x71a53c…
05-16 16:30:58	Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	513	60¢	$308	0x032306…
05-16 16:30:26	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	BUY	513	52¢	$267	0xa6219f…
05-15 21:32:32	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	Yes	SELL	349	97¢	$339	0x96bfe1…
05-15 21:31:11	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	207	29¢	$61	0xc44703…
05-14 23:33:17	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	194	33¢	$64	0x8521bf…
05-14 19:08:36	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x0173f8…
05-14 19:06:58	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	35	54¢	$19	0x5e2714…
05-14 18:50:49	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	408	61¢	$249	0x33f40a…
05-14 18:45:20	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	Yes	SELL	523	47¢	$247	0xe24390…
05-14 18:40:43	Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	443	11¢	$49	0x167a80…
05-14 17:45:15	Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros	Seattle Mariners	BUY	425	51¢	$217	0x51742c…
05-14 16:41:45	Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xa4c4eb…
05-14 13:55:05	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x821e54…
05-14 13:39:33	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	BUY	427	78¢	$333	0x954236…
05-14 13:34:42	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0xe488af…
05-14 13:34:21	Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox	Kansas City Royals	BUY	519	55¢	$285	0x1ffce5…
05-14 13:33:48	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	BUY	74	78¢	$58	0xabbdfc…
05-14 13:32:59	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x86bc77…
05-14 13:29:06	Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	757	11¢	$83	0xebbd19…
05-14 13:27:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	550	4¢	$21	0x810d5b…
05-14 13:23:39	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	530	98¢	$520	0xe3c1eb…
05-14 12:55:37	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	84	54¢	$46	0x827840…
05-14 12:00:00	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	Yes	BUY	49	47¢	$23	0xd9c5d7…
05-14 11:59:55	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	Yes	BUY	370	47¢	$174	0x066f4f…
05-14 11:32:56	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	Yes	BUY	19	47¢	$9	0x9d5673…
05-14 11:18:21	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	Yes	BUY	85	47¢	$40	0x96e9ec…
05-14 11:17:46	Golden Knights vs. Ducks	Golden Knights	BUY	400	51¢	$204	0xb77f1a…
05-14 06:36:41	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0x590ec7…
05-14 02:15:46	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	33	54¢	$18	0x0b12bd…
05-14 00:22:23	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	124	33¢	$41	0xe12960…
05-13 22:40:32	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0x731a61…
05-13 21:30:36	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	400	58¢	$232	0x558748…
05-13 21:17:42	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x98679c…
05-13 21:01:52	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0xfd7761…
05-13 20:53:19	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x2c434c…
05-13 20:50:58	Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	108	25¢	$27	0x7d178b…
05-13 20:49:32	Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	67	25¢	$17	0x4f7f65…
05-13 20:34:25	Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x7d0ac7…
05-13 20:32:54	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	43	54¢	$23	0x18aa47…
05-13 20:32:39	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	43	54¢	$23	0x1ecbbb…
05-13 20:31:04	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	43	54¢	$23	0x0c5ac1…
05-13 20:18:26	Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	41	25¢	$10	0x4b4ff7…
05-13 20:06:03	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x982c93…
05-13 20:05:15	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x3b4f44…
05-13 19:31:29	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xfbcf70…
05-13 19:20:01	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x361976…
05-13 19:05:35	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x21e8b9…
05-13 19:02:22	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x098746…
05-13 18:58:28	Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x789cba…
05-13 18:56:24	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	31	33¢	$10	0x11df37…
05-13 18:55:29	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0xc0de76…
05-13 18:54:46	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x92fffd…
05-13 18:54:44	Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	212	25¢	$53	0x7a7d17…
05-13 18:54:21	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xf8ee01…
05-13 18:31:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	258	94¢	$243	0x65e7e5…
05-13 17:57:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	215	99¢	$213	0xbb6548…
05-13 17:57:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	371	99¢	$367	0x449e25…
05-13 17:35:19	Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$5	0xab5366…
05-08 11:27:16	Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	335	65¢	$218	0x091c44…
05-08 11:21:54	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	335	64¢	$215	0x8007fa…
05-08 01:27:28	Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5	Yes	BUY	345	52¢	$180	0x237b8d…
05-07 12:27:57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x08a943…