Well-To-Do-Marimba — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

74.2%

Resolved

1,312

Trades

2,164

lifetime

Volume

$2.30K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 11-13 03:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 141 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 73% -$22

Other

2% 88% +$2

Politics

2% 64% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	-1	-$1	97¢	$-1	$0	05-31 06:25
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	-1	-$1	91¢	$-1	$0	05-31 06:25
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-1	$0	9¢	$-0	+$0	05-31 06:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	14	$14	10	10	+0	Up	+$0	05-08 14:39
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	3	$8	4	4	+0	No	+$0	03-13 08:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:25 UTC	8	$8	5	5	+0	Up	+$0	08-21 14:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:30 UTC	6	$6	4	4	+0	Up	+$0	08-21 14:34
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	2	$6	3	3	+0	No	+$0	03-14 08:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 12:15 UTC	2	$6	6	0	+6	Up	+$0	03-16 12:19
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by march 13 955 782 768	3	$6	6	6	+0	Yes	+$2	03-12 10:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:35 UTC	5	$5	4	3	+1	Down	-$1	08-21 14:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 13:50 UTC	3	$5	3	2	+1	Down	+$0	03-20 13:52
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	3	$5	3	3	+0	No	+$1	04-01 05:18
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	2	$5	3	3	+0	No	+$1	04-01 05:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 12:05 UTC	4	$4	4	4	+0	Up	+$1	03-17 12:07
masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	2	$4	2	2	+0	No	+$0	04-01 05:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 11:45 UTC	2	$4	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	03-17 11:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 16:20 UTC	2	$4	2	2	+0	Down	+$0	03-15 16:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	4	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$0	05-02 14:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 15:10 UTC	2	$4	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	03-15 15:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 20:30 UTC	2	$4	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	03-15 20:34
netanyahu arrested by march 31	3	$4	2	2	+0	No	+$0	03-18 06:31
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by march 13 323 755 644	2	$4	2	2	+0	No	+$0	03-11 16:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	4	$4	3	3	+0	Down	$0	05-08 14:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:20 UTC	4	$4	3	3	+0	Up	$0	08-21 14:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	3	$3	3	2	+1	Down	+$1	05-13 11:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	3	$3	2	1	+1	Down	+$0	05-13 12:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	3	$3	3	2	+1	Down	+$0	05-18 00:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 16:45 UTC	3	$3	3	2	+1	Down	+$0	06-24 16:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	3	$3	3	1	+1	Up	+$0	05-11 16:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 11:50 UTC	4	$3	5	2	+3	Down	-$1	03-17 11:53
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	3	$3	8	10	-2	open	—	05-31 06:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	3	$3	3	1	+1	Down	+$0	06-02 22:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 03:26:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0xfcdb40…
11-13 03:26:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x0b3c28…
11-10 13:33:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa9b1c2…
11-06 15:07:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	47¢	$1	0x0dea29…
11-06 15:05:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xc96aa2…
11-06 13:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	SELL	1	61¢	$1	0xff1ea8…
11-06 13:30:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x0285de…
11-05 23:13:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x7c4393…
11-05 23:10:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xf42958…
11-05 15:55:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x65d143…
11-05 15:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x435b6b…
11-05 15:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0xcc701d…
11-05 15:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x62a2f0…
11-05 15:30:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x595205…
11-05 15:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x0044c7…
11-05 15:25:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x03a669…
11-05 15:25:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x41cdad…
11-05 15:20:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xc97fa4…
11-05 15:20:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x01bb0f…
11-05 15:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x6b62d7…
11-05 15:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x5a339b…
11-05 15:10:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x6b5f4c…
11-05 15:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x0d4a37…
11-04 15:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0xabf4e2…
11-04 15:50:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x526110…
11-04 15:36:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	54¢	$1	0x6e4b50…
11-04 15:35:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xc2de5f…
11-04 15:15:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xe1edea…
11-04 15:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa9131d…
11-04 15:11:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	1	50¢	$1	0x627e3c…
11-04 15:10:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xf0db32…
11-04 15:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x765e84…
11-03 11:08:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x856a81…
11-01 19:13:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2cafa9…
10-30 00:30:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	SELL	1	44¢	$1	0x6c0777…
10-30 00:30:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xcd10f5…
10-30 00:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0x7820e6…
10-30 00:20:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x69b310…
10-29 21:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xecd9be…
10-29 21:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x3c50b9…
10-29 20:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xd9be81…
10-29 20:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x86a15c…
10-29 20:50:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x0f6459…
10-29 20:46:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0x0353f6…
10-29 20:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xe844c7…
10-24 14:28:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xf12cba…
10-20 14:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	53¢	$1	0x789407…
10-20 14:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xc4c65f…
10-18 13:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x359f07…
10-15 15:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	46¢	$1	0x7b0a73…
10-15 15:05:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x4d41b7…
10-15 14:10:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xfebc67…
10-15 12:30:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x5165aa…
10-15 02:30:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 02:30 UTC	Up	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x4388d8…
10-15 02:30:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x0e7af1…
10-08 17:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xc8473b…
10-08 13:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x8baaf5…
10-07 13:35:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	61¢	$1	0x44fd3a…
10-07 13:35:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4db83e…
10-05 14:35:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xc4650a…
10-05 14:35:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xec255a…
10-02 18:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x6992ad…
10-02 18:40:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x3b5eba…
10-02 17:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xcd2548…
10-02 14:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1	53¢	$1	0xca6587…
10-02 14:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xaf2027…
10-01 16:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xb92647…
10-01 15:11:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	52¢	$1	0xc50833…
10-01 15:10:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x6e5028…
10-01 13:51:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xae0653…
10-01 13:50:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x3d2112…
09-30 14:41:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 14:40 UTC	Down	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0xbe0cb6…
09-30 14:41:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 14:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x53a636…
09-28 01:50:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 01:50 UTC	Down	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x5ee816…
09-28 01:50:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 01:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x49800b…
09-24 14:50:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 14:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x9a0dfb…
09-24 08:52:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xfd7606…
09-24 08:50:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x4f3f34…
09-24 08:37:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	47¢	$1	0xb2bce3…
09-24 08:35:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x7a1082…
09-23 14:36:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x0ea500…
09-23 14:35:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x663887…
09-22 13:36:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0xa8a421…
09-22 13:35:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x595047…
09-22 13:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc7aeb3…
09-21 19:35:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 19:35 UTC	Up	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x3fb9b4…
09-21 19:35:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xad16eb…
09-21 14:50:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 14:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x703966…
09-21 13:53:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 13:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa8a633…
09-21 13:50:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 13:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x9b904a…
09-21 13:42:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 13:40 UTC	Up	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0xf77f4b…
09-21 13:40:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 13:40 UTC	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x6fedc1…
09-21 13:35:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 13:35 UTC	Up	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0x47aef5…
09-21 13:35:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 13:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xae6b61…
09-21 09:36:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x144253…
09-21 08:48:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd1ab32…
09-18 14:06:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xcacc95…
09-18 14:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x6ba99e…
09-18 13:41:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x5372fa…
09-16 19:16:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 19:15 UTC	Up	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x4c302e…