Smug-Jockey — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

33.6%

Resolved

Trades

280

lifetime

Volume

$281

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-11 08:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

36% 0% $-0

Politics

30% — —

Crypto

25% 67% +$0

Tech

6% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+1	$1	97¢	$1	+$0	06-02 04:37
Will Meta acquire TikTok?	No		+1	$1	99¢	$1	+$0	05-29 04:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	10	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	02-05 09:05
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	8	$8	4	4	-0	open	—	01-14 03:26
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	02-12 07:18
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-27 08:19
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-20 07:17
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-15 06:20
another us government shutdown by february 14	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-13 03:29
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-24 10:13
over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-07 09:48
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-03 07:24
bitcoin above 68k on march 14	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-14 06:10
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-03 06:37
Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-25 06:10
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-03 06:39
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-11 06:16
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-18 08:15
will arirang bts be the billboard 200 1 album for the week of april 4	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-28 07:49
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-27 09:32
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-23 04:15
will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 20	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-20 08:31
will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-10 03:35
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-27 03:53
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-11 08:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-29 06:50
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	01-12 03:14
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-07 00:58
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-05 06:32
bitcoin above 70k on march 16	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-16 03:49
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-18 05:58
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-16 06:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 08:26:34	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x1a2921…
06-11 08:22:48	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xc977d1…
06-11 08:15:28	will bulk launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	1	29¢	$0	0xa267a2…
06-11 08:14:10	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x0f0c3f…
06-11 08:13:15	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	No	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0x19abbe…
06-09 03:30:43	Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x61954a…
06-09 03:26:25	Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdf5653…
06-08 03:13:07	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x8211e3…
06-08 03:09:00	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbcd1b7…
06-06 07:48:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x3a78e4…
06-06 07:25:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x96b8ad…
06-05 06:32:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x80fc6f…
06-05 06:30:55	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xdf3cb0…
06-05 06:22:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xff1b11…
06-05 06:18:45	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x54bcaa…
06-04 07:22:00	israeli forces enter choukine by june 7	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xcaff77…
06-04 07:02:15	israeli forces enter choukine by june 7	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xdaa803…
06-03 07:27:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xe77d3a…
06-03 07:24:08	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x7169e4…
06-03 06:52:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x0ed594…
06-03 06:28:33	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc74f78…
06-03 06:27:44	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x25e5c4…
06-02 06:12:24	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x1dc2eb…
06-02 04:37:43	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x8eca18…
06-02 04:34:57	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xfd1804…
05-30 07:08:45	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1e4740…
05-29 04:55:34	Will Meta acquire TikTok?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x58588a…
05-28 07:14:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x421492…
05-28 07:13:48	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x0798f2…
05-28 07:02:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xf4a697…
05-28 06:57:47	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x8f4d6e…
05-27 08:19:49	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xaf6b24…
05-27 07:26:05	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x55880d…
05-25 06:23:24	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xc43880…
05-25 06:05:50	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x9e429a…
05-22 07:50:33	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa56dc1…
05-22 07:38:01	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x73b109…
05-22 07:24:22	Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x285382…
05-21 07:49:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x803287…
05-21 07:39:55	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xcbdd19…
05-20 07:17:23	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3b82fc…
05-20 06:53:12	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x882254…
05-19 06:06:40	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0cc474…
05-19 04:46:00	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x99f0f9…
05-18 08:15:24	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x570ca6…
05-18 08:06:07	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x287a3a…
05-16 06:46:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x12493e…
05-16 06:40:50	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x587d7e…
05-15 06:20:13	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x35b73b…
05-15 06:03:29	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x177d3c…
05-15 04:39:10	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x025087…
05-14 06:45:12	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd1a182…
05-14 06:44:23	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x205d4a…
05-14 06:37:07	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb40e14…
05-14 06:29:31	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x713dca…
05-13 07:33:20	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x696f5e…
05-13 07:22:08	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x0afeb3…
05-12 07:24:29	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe3517a…
05-12 07:22:21	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x4d84b5…
05-12 07:16:07	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1f892f…
05-12 07:11:04	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x64e19e…
05-11 06:16:31	Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x255e02…
05-11 04:45:31	Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa63039…
05-07 04:40:58	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x8bd538…
05-07 03:45:03	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x68b0d8…
05-05 04:42:20	DoorDash total orders above 920M in Q1?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x22acfd…
05-05 04:21:52	DoorDash total orders above 920M in Q1?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xcdff38…
05-04 04:03:24	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x97cebf…
05-04 03:43:48	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x9dfdc5…
04-30 07:10:42	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xf6e956…
04-30 07:01:40	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xd1b715…
04-29 06:50:48	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd6c13a…
04-29 06:45:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3634e9…
04-29 06:34:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x92d613…
04-29 06:30:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x43bc1d…
04-28 03:37:02	Will Trump say "Queen" during King Charles visit?	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x471674…
04-28 03:35:58	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during King Charles visit?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x00549a…
04-28 03:27:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe7e7dc…
04-28 03:23:50	Will Trump say "Queen" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xa221b6…
04-28 03:20:40	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x6fde1e…
04-27 03:53:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9c28a5…
04-27 03:52:34	Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xde1090…
04-27 03:47:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf69d3e…
04-27 03:41:40	Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xc8bf36…
04-25 06:10:28	Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2e1e7b…
04-25 06:09:50	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xb69d52…
04-25 04:53:58	Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x389e37…
04-25 04:50:24	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x270962…
04-24 03:44:18	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x747223…
04-24 03:36:18	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf64ff6…
04-21 04:29:24	Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x1ca8d3…
04-21 04:28:26	bitcoin above 72k on april 21	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x75609d…
04-21 03:50:12	bitcoin above 72k on april 21	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8c4ebd…
04-21 03:47:08	Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xe8608c…
04-20 08:35:06	Pharos FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd3c4ba…
04-20 08:31:30	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 20	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4b0ff1…
04-20 08:28:38	Pharos FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb53d84…
04-20 08:23:08	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 20	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa209c8…
04-18 05:59:40	Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x47ffc0…
04-18 05:58:00	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8eca0b…