Considerate-Moody — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.6%

Resolved

Trades

203

lifetime

Volume

$13.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-09 22:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

44% — —

Other

33% 0% $-1

Sports

24% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	19	$1.4K	1,459	1,459	+0	open	—	04-26 10:36
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	13	$959	826	826	+0	No	+$0	04-22 00:11
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	13	$943	651	651	+0	open	—	03-29 04:36
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	7	$885	451	451	+0	open	—	04-26 21:04
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	19	$820	1,012	1,012	+0	open	—	06-09 13:38
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	6	$640	484	484	+0	open	—	05-29 04:57
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$626	331	331	+0	open	—	04-16 20:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	9	$616	635	635	+0	open	—	06-06 20:00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	4	$595	322	322	+0	open	—	05-30 19:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	5	$585	305	305	+0	open	—	05-17 14:42
Iran leadership change by June 30?	8	$578	618	618	+0	open	—	06-06 11:10
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$322	326	326	+0	open	—	04-23 15:27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	7	$322	505	505	+0	open	—	03-27 11:54
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	2	$320	164	164	+0	open	—	05-14 21:57
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7	$310	481	480	+1	open	—	04-19 01:14
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$294	150	150	+0	open	—	03-16 21:23
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?	6	$294	471	471	+0	open	—	04-15 08:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$288	150	150	+0	open	—	04-24 01:56
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$286	149	149	+0	open	—	05-15 06:04
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	4	$285	144	144	+0	open	—	04-21 13:42
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	3	$282	147	147	+0	open	—	04-19 17:56
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	4	$274	311	311	+0	open	—	06-09 22:00
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	2	$272	144	144	+0	open	—	03-30 17:50
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$270	180	180	+0	open	—	06-09 01:22
Will Alberta join the US?	2	$269	141	141	+0	open	—	06-04 16:53
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$158	255	255	+0	open	—	06-05 10:50
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	3	$138	0	139	-139	open	—	05-30 08:29
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	7	$45	319	319	+0	open	—	06-07 06:33
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	1	$41	0	327	-327	open	—	05-29 08:57
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$20	188	188	+0	Yes	$-1	04-17 15:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 22:00:15	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	311	44¢	$137	0xe0b152…
06-09 19:37:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0xe78ccc…
06-09 19:36:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	265	44¢	$117	0x70ed96…
06-09 19:36:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	38	44¢	$17	0x658124…
06-09 13:38:10	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	304	2¢	$5	0x4c6bad…
06-09 11:41:13	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	194	2¢	$3	0x419068…
06-09 11:41:13	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	2¢	$2	0x05b70b…
06-09 01:22:40	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	180	76¢	$137	0x236f8b…
06-08 22:01:01	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	47	74¢	$35	0xb17120…
06-08 22:01:01	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	133	74¢	$98	0x977500…
06-07 20:50:15	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	107	98¢	$105	0xaa8b1b…
06-07 20:50:15	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$28	0x57e316…
06-07 18:41:01	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	135	98¢	$133	0x243099…
06-07 06:33:27	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0x5cdaf0…
06-07 02:10:54	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	14	96¢	$14	0x4cb786…
06-06 20:00:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	267	50¢	$134	0x883878…
06-06 18:36:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	267	50¢	$134	0x831da1…
06-06 11:10:43	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	321	4¢	$13	0x7e84f1…
06-06 10:07:52	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	159	4¢	$6	0xee4f64…
06-06 10:07:52	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	151	4¢	$6	0xcb08c8…
06-06 10:07:52	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x031bfb…
06-06 07:20:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	79	3¢	$2	0xd9bf64…
06-06 07:20:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x427329…
06-06 04:32:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	109	3¢	$3	0x5f849e…
06-06 02:35:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	21	50¢	$10	0xb911d7…
06-06 02:35:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0xb86587…
06-06 02:35:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	140	50¢	$70	0x439b7e…
06-06 01:28:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	211	50¢	$106	0x937ebf…
06-05 16:05:57	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	124	97¢	$121	0xdc4c04…
06-05 16:05:57	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0x290d40…
06-05 14:25:30	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	137	98¢	$135	0x93e48e…
06-05 10:50:28	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	255	31¢	$79	0xefd0a3…
06-05 09:47:36	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	173	31¢	$54	0xbf386a…
06-05 09:47:36	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	82	31¢	$25	0x9cb583…
06-05 05:50:39	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	150	2¢	$2	0xe2feb6…
06-05 03:34:30	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	150	2¢	$2	0x608005…
06-04 16:53:04	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	141	96¢	$135	0xa783dc…
06-04 12:31:25	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	141	95¢	$135	0x4a78dd…
06-03 00:01:16	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	1¢	$1	0xe67eb2…
06-02 23:55:37	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	1¢	$1	0x8fac17…
06-02 23:55:37	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	1¢	$1	0x8f31ef…
06-02 23:55:37	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	1¢	$0	0x82d891…
06-02 23:55:37	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	1¢	$1	0x4647b8…
06-02 23:52:28	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0x1fbd9e…
06-02 19:37:10	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	1¢	$2	0x991eed…
06-02 19:37:10	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	155	1¢	$2	0x71cd16…
06-02 15:48:58	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	136	99¢	$134	0x89e0c4…
06-02 11:27:01	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	136	99¢	$134	0x21efc4…
06-01 22:44:15	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	140	1¢	$2	0x2ea4ac…
06-01 20:13:17	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	82	2¢	$2	0x8ba93a…
06-01 20:13:15	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	58	2¢	$1	0x76c321…
06-01 00:14:51	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	61	1¢	$1	0xe560b9…
06-01 00:14:51	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	104	1¢	$1	0xa57dab…
05-31 22:01:20	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	165	2¢	$2	0x4fe298…
05-31 10:24:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	308	4¢	$11	0xcf0c20…
05-30 19:29:11	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	141	98¢	$138	0xea4442…
05-30 18:16:23	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	141	98¢	$138	0xae6001…
05-30 13:08:46	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	149	93¢	$139	0xb72d44…
05-30 12:43:06	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	149	93¢	$139	0x065e30…
05-30 08:29:22	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	88	99¢	$87	0xcedf25…
05-30 08:29:21	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x6b0313…
05-30 08:29:21	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x68d5f3…
05-29 18:24:56	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	148	93¢	$138	0xd52216…
05-29 15:33:42	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	148	93¢	$138	0x7910e0…
05-29 08:57:14	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	327	12¢	$41	0x1a412a…
05-29 04:57:07	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	157	98¢	$154	0x925c0f…
05-29 03:26:45	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	157	98¢	$154	0xbad65b…
05-28 19:18:09	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	165	4¢	$7	0x9ec23f…
05-28 18:15:14	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	165	4¢	$7	0x74139c…
05-28 13:30:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	157	44¢	$69	0xf6809b…
05-28 11:42:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	44¢	$45	0x90235e…
05-28 11:42:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	44¢	$24	0x1fb9df…
05-26 06:10:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	157	3¢	$5	0xc5496e…
05-26 06:02:23	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	157	4¢	$6	0xd67936…
05-23 21:55:19	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	245	3¢	$8	0x8b49c1…
05-23 21:55:19	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	95	3¢	$3	0x374721…
05-23 20:46:26	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	160	1¢	$2	0xc0ef3e…
05-23 20:46:26	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	155	1¢	$2	0xa63550…
05-23 20:46:26	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0x8adc36…
05-21 06:18:45	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	181	88¢	$159	0x2ac809…
05-21 06:18:01	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	181	88¢	$159	0xe2e4a1…
05-18 22:43:39	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	170	94¢	$160	0x25751b…
05-18 20:50:43	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	170	94¢	$160	0x93e28d…
05-17 14:42:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	153	96¢	$146	0x788140…
05-17 11:00:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	96	96¢	$92	0x1b6031…
05-17 11:00:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	57	96¢	$54	0x10b061…
05-16 22:22:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	152	96¢	$146	0x52e631…
05-16 20:37:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	152	97¢	$147	0xd5f092…
05-15 13:49:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	295	2¢	$7	0x6fbec4…
05-15 11:38:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	2¢	$3	0x141e00…
05-15 11:38:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	2¢	$2	0x9effa3…
05-15 11:38:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	2¢	$2	0x6609cc…
05-15 06:04:42	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe1b9cf…
05-15 06:04:42	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	148	96¢	$142	0xa820ab…
05-15 03:23:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	149	96¢	$143	0x3f7d4f…
05-14 21:57:13	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	164	98¢	$160	0xd0e851…
05-14 21:56:27	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	164	97¢	$160	0xef53f3…
04-26 21:04:10	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0xe9b541…
04-26 21:04:10	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	121	98¢	$119	0x8fc4ff…
04-26 19:00:38	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	147	98¢	$145	0x05503c…