Made-Up-Withdrawal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$50

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

71.8%

Resolved

Trades

638

lifetime

Volume

$5.87K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$36

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-03 03:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

42% 100% +$0

Other

35% 100% +$0

Sports

19% 0% $-50

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 47 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No		+30	$30	100¢	$30	+$0	06-27 21:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+6	$6	100¢	$6	+$0	06-30 22:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the next official us iran meeting be in oman	29	$120	60	60	+0	open	—	02-08 13:21
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	17	$116	60	56	+5	open	—	04-27 08:07
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	5	$100	63	42	+22	open	—	03-03 08:14
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	4	$93	54	40	+13	open	—	02-28 06:53
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	4	$83	42	42	+0	open	—	06-04 13:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	5	$81	43	41	+2	open	—	05-10 20:45
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	7	$80	76	5	+72	open	—	01-27 11:44
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	5	$74	75	0	+75	open	—	02-10 10:12
Trump out as President by June 30?	5	$72	47	26	+20	open	—	06-04 03:53
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	2	$72	20	52	-32	open	—	06-13 22:06
Trump out as President by April 30?	6	$65	33	33	+0	open	—	04-25 11:15
lol jdg al 2026 04 10	23	$63	67	33	+34	open	—	04-10 13:28
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$61	60	1	+59	open	—	02-03 07:29
will bad bunny perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	3	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	02-08 13:17
will tetairoa mcmillan be the 2025 2026 nfl offensive rookie of the year 271	3	$60	63	0	+63	open	—	02-01 22:51
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	3	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	02-09 22:51
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	3	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	04-01 21:11
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	3	$60	61	0	+61	open	—	03-04 18:35
new stranger things episode released by february 28 564 799 718 478 643 635 547	3	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	02-04 19:08
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	3	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	05-16 07:35
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	4	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	01-01 19:20
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$59	40	20	+20	open	—	04-07 14:23
will olivia rodrigo release an album in 2025	5	$58	30	28	+2	open	—	01-03 16:40
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$58	44	24	+20	open	—	02-28 07:18
new stranger things episode released by april 30	8	$56	28	28	+0	open	—	04-21 10:41
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	4	$52	26	26	+0	open	—	01-03 19:01
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	4	$51	26	26	+0	open	—	01-12 12:48
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	5	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-07 08:59
will matthew stafford win the 202526 nfl mvp award	3	$48	53	0	+53	open	—	01-29 00:10
afc u23 final china vs japan	25	$47	31	31	+0	open	—	01-24 15:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 03:25:31	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x93ec12…
07-03 03:24:19	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0xb14b7c…
07-03 03:23:26	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x1caee1…
07-02 17:38:05	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x99761d…
07-02 17:15:16	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xcaf65b…
07-02 16:37:41	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 7 20260630014219997	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7c6c7d…
07-02 16:22:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 7 20260630014219997	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x76dd5d…
07-02 16:21:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa45875…
07-02 16:21:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xcb3313…
07-02 16:00:01	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x72ba89…
07-02 15:31:28	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x243888…
07-01 20:45:46	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x22085c…
07-01 17:12:10	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xc96017…
07-01 16:40:41	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x6fb82a…
07-01 15:17:56	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xefbee1…
07-01 15:16:38	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x21a013…
07-01 14:49:04	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xcd5c64…
07-01 10:13:44	will openais valuation hit low 750b by june 30	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x72fdc5…
07-01 09:12:44	will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by june 30	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x561ab0…
07-01 02:32:08	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xcb8993…
07-01 02:32:08	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2ea869…
06-30 22:38:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcef278…
06-30 22:18:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x84ca27…
06-30 22:14:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2278eb…
06-28 16:42:02	Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x63f6cd…
06-28 12:10:20	US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe1207e…
06-28 01:50:08	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7ce8eb…
06-28 01:11:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x54d72f…
06-27 23:35:34	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe73b3c…
06-27 23:35:34	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7c86e5…
06-27 23:35:31	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xd1f2ec…
06-27 23:17:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x5bbc80…
06-27 23:17:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x25464c…
06-27 22:32:01	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa54d9d…
06-27 22:07:01	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x496a31…
06-27 21:40:44	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x53aa16…
06-27 21:38:38	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x5eb86b…
06-27 21:37:41	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x6e3935…
06-27 21:35:02	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x9c4cde…
06-27 21:13:10	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x4d5716…
06-27 20:51:19	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1a423d…
06-27 17:07:25	Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x687515…
06-27 16:36:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8c4614…
06-27 16:29:19	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x7b5715…
06-27 16:06:04	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc4dfa6…
06-27 16:06:02	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x4b5173…
06-27 15:54:46	Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xee63a9…
06-27 15:53:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xdd3a62…
06-27 15:08:20	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4c6506…
06-27 14:50:38	Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8c857e…
06-27 14:32:11	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf8a149…
06-27 14:20:59	Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf19cf8…
06-27 14:13:49	Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8ce4be…
06-27 14:11:02	Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd588f6…
06-27 14:08:41	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x620cbf…
06-27 13:50:04	Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf3c510…
06-27 09:03:11	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3110f2…
06-27 08:59:28	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xde980a…
06-27 08:59:22	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3bd4fd…
06-27 08:52:08	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe0e9f2…
06-27 08:51:22	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xb0c693…
06-27 08:47:32	ufc abu2 mic1 2026 06 27	Michal Oleksiejczuk	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xc78557…
06-27 08:47:16	ufc abu2 mic1 2026 06 27	Michal Oleksiejczuk	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xde166c…
06-27 08:46:46	ufc asu cha15 2026 06 27	Asu Almabayev	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0xf545ec…
06-27 08:46:40	ufc nur1 and28 2026 06 27	Andrey Pulyaev	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x1210bf…
06-27 08:46:25	ufc nur1 and28 2026 06 27	Andrey Pulyaev	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0xe204da…
06-27 08:46:10	ufc nur1 and28 2026 06 27	Andrey Pulyaev	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0xf7d475…
06-27 07:33:20	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xbadf13…
06-27 06:15:47	Will Trump be impeached by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd940d5…
06-27 05:31:01	Will Trump be impeached by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x45e214…
06-27 05:15:35	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x5f3137…
06-27 05:07:25	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf44faf…
06-27 05:00:17	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x83933c…
06-27 04:44:25	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdc4ed6…
06-27 04:43:28	Will Trump be impeached by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xab91bb…
06-23 17:04:11	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x0c7485…
06-23 16:31:22	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb861a9…
06-18 13:47:28	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc0db8b…
06-18 12:46:31	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x692480…
06-18 10:58:07	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xca03b8…
06-18 07:25:58	kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x044ee6…
06-18 06:54:28	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xd52f40…
06-18 03:32:31	Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5c8462…
06-17 21:53:04	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4f9fd1…
06-17 21:49:05	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x34259e…
06-17 21:47:19	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by june 30	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x90ed64…
06-17 21:43:17	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa7d17f…
06-17 02:35:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xedadf0…
06-17 02:34:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd81662…
06-17 02:33:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x1e0f5f…
06-15 16:01:01	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1e89eb…
06-15 15:54:43	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xee15d9…
06-15 05:32:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4c380f…
06-15 05:32:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x205cc0…
06-14 23:50:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x801f50…
06-14 21:39:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x25af33…
06-14 06:28:25	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x6ed538…
06-14 02:18:55	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x796315…
06-14 02:18:46	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	19	51¢	$9	0x2bf3d7…
06-14 02:17:52	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	5	51¢	$2	0x773b4e…