Made-Up-Withdrawal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$50

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

71.8%

Resolved

Trades

535

lifetime

Volume

$4.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$86

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-05 16:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

39% 100% +$0

Other

36% 100% +$0

Sports

22% 0% $-50

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President by June 30?	No	+20	$20	99¢	$20	+$0	06-04 03:53
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	+20	$20	100¢	$20	+$0	06-02 06:11
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	+20	$20	99¢	$20	+$0	06-04 16:27
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?	No	+20	$20	99¢	$20	+$0	06-04 17:05
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?	No	+6	$6	99¢	$6	+$0	06-04 12:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the next official us iran meeting be in oman	29	$120	60	60	+0	open	—	02-08 13:21
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	17	$116	60	56	+5	open	—	04-27 08:07
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	5	$100	63	42	+22	open	—	03-03 08:14
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	4	$93	54	40	+13	open	—	02-28 06:53
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	4	$83	42	42	+0	open	—	06-04 13:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	5	$81	43	41	+2	open	—	05-10 20:45
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	7	$80	76	5	+72	open	—	01-27 11:44
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	5	$74	75	0	+75	open	—	02-10 10:12
Trump out as President by June 30?	5	$72	47	26	+20	open	—	06-04 03:53
Trump out as President by April 30?	6	$65	33	33	+0	open	—	04-25 11:15
lol jdg al 2026 04 10	23	$63	67	33	+34	open	—	04-10 13:28
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$61	60	1	+59	open	—	02-03 07:29
will bad bunny perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	3	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	02-08 13:17
will tetairoa mcmillan be the 2025 2026 nfl offensive rookie of the year 271	3	$60	63	0	+63	open	—	02-01 22:51
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	3	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	04-01 21:11
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	3	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	02-09 22:51
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	3	$60	61	0	+61	open	—	03-04 18:35
new stranger things episode released by february 28 564 799 718 478 643 635 547	3	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	02-04 19:08
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	3	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	05-16 07:35
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	4	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	01-01 19:20
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$59	40	20	+20	open	—	04-07 14:23
will olivia rodrigo release an album in 2025	5	$58	30	28	+2	open	—	01-03 16:40
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$58	44	24	+20	open	—	02-28 07:18
new stranger things episode released by april 30	8	$56	28	28	+0	open	—	04-21 10:41
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	4	$52	26	26	+0	open	—	01-03 19:01
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	4	$51	26	26	+0	open	—	01-12 12:48
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	5	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-07 08:59
will matthew stafford win the 202526 nfl mvp award	3	$48	53	0	+53	open	—	01-29 00:10
afc u23 final china vs japan	25	$47	31	31	+0	open	—	01-24 15:05
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	3	$47	47	0	+47	open	—	04-29 17:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 16:26:37	ufc bre1 edm 2026 06 06	Edmen Shahbazyan	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xa99986…
06-05 16:05:12	ufc bre1 edm 2026 06 06	Edmen Shahbazyan	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xc6c302…
06-04 17:05:18	New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x282eb7…
06-04 16:27:15	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x07e3da…
06-04 13:50:01	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	42	100¢	$41	0xa1d753…
06-04 12:32:27	DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x40bdb7…
06-04 11:05:27	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcf6617…
06-04 10:32:21	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9ba422…
06-04 10:30:28	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa2bc59…
06-04 03:53:54	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xc5339d…
06-03 21:43:51	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x029719…
06-02 16:16:16	DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x536d38…
06-02 12:15:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4dc0e6…
06-02 09:25:32	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x5ca3df…
06-02 08:22:15	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x766666…
06-02 06:11:21	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xa6f247…
06-01 21:20:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x23c02f…
06-01 17:08:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x710e47…
06-01 17:08:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xe7e3ac…
06-01 17:08:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x19c650…
06-01 12:53:46	DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xb42f37…
06-01 08:34:46	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x525a10…
06-01 06:52:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x88ccdb…
05-27 16:13:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x82bb9f…
05-27 16:13:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x156c01…
05-27 14:41:50	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x10a082…
05-25 13:19:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5d27c2…
05-22 23:44:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x330425…
05-21 22:21:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd4524c…
05-20 06:11:19	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x206ce0…
05-17 14:11:48	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x389146…
05-17 14:11:41	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$6	0x37a467…
05-17 14:08:23	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0315a7…
05-17 13:16:51	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xf868ca…
05-17 13:15:56	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	9	97¢	$8	0xe2a0f5…
05-17 04:10:07	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xd08aff…
05-16 14:30:00	UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims)	Tommy Gantt	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xaf800f…
05-16 10:46:09	UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)	Nicolle Caliari	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x5da0a7…
05-16 10:45:57	UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)	Nicolle Caliari	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xfaeeb0…
05-16 09:31:57	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0d1a02…
05-16 09:31:10	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x4690dd…
05-16 09:30:59	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xba2952…
05-16 07:35:49	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xdc6051…
05-16 07:11:33	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x69f107…
05-16 07:11:33	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x3c696d…
05-15 18:26:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd218d9…
05-15 11:02:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9e401c…
05-14 05:06:09	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x5a39c1…
05-13 19:16:36	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x0c9f88…
05-13 18:56:39	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x916e40…
05-12 15:57:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1f311f…
05-12 15:57:28	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xce7352…
05-10 20:45:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa5e9cc…
05-10 00:18:32	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x22b695…
05-09 12:25:44	UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	Joaquin Buckley	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0xd6cbb9…
05-09 06:57:38	UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)	Marco Tulio	BUY	12	65¢	$8	0x7e5cdb…
05-09 06:48:34	UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)	Marco Tulio	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x9581d6…
05-09 06:48:34	UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)	Marco Tulio	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x497bf7…
05-07 17:01:29	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x17494a…
05-07 16:50:55	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x6997c5…
05-07 16:30:32	UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	Joaquin Buckley	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xbd0546…
05-07 08:59:25	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x7943cc…
05-06 03:39:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc673da…
05-06 00:42:10	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xaa0f97…
05-06 00:42:10	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xa60184…
05-06 00:14:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0x15fd77…
05-06 00:14:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x65a7ce…
05-05 18:30:54	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xedc71a…
05-05 13:14:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xb32099…
05-05 13:13:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x84601b…
05-04 12:12:52	Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5)	T1	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x1578a3…
05-04 12:10:58	Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5)	T1	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x616fda…
05-04 12:10:52	Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5)	T1	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xb7599c…
05-03 17:21:40	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x254b5a…
05-02 17:21:06	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7dc3b8…
05-02 11:52:56	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	Invictus Gaming	BUY	17	32¢	$5	0xa896e2…
05-02 11:51:50	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	Invictus Gaming	BUY	56	32¢	$18	0xbea6bc…
05-02 11:49:18	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	Invictus Gaming	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xb2f0e0…
05-01 13:23:36	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x100893…
05-01 13:23:28	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x656f04…
05-01 13:23:26	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x7f9d04…
05-01 13:14:22	UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims)	Wes Schultz	BUY	25	45¢	$11	0x208c98…
05-01 11:20:42	UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)	Colby Thicknesse	BUY	13	57¢	$8	0x7e09a0…
05-01 11:15:56	UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)	Colby Thicknesse	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x7d9d05…
05-01 10:56:24	UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)	Colby Thicknesse	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xec1535…
05-01 06:18:18	UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelims)	Brando Pericic	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x071a29…
05-01 05:47:50	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x19dd5b…
05-01 05:45:38	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb5745c…
05-01 05:13:34	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2c390d…
05-01 05:00:40	UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)	Steve Erceg	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xed4e04…
05-01 03:45:18	UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)	Steve Erceg	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xe78552…
05-01 03:15:18	UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims)	Wes Schultz	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x6e9bf9…
05-01 01:54:44	UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)	Steve Erceg	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xb2060f…
04-30 10:27:34	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2c6f3f…
04-30 10:26:50	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xe2fa51…
04-30 00:00:30	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x706152…
04-29 23:46:42	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x2eff99…
04-29 20:16:26	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x74fb71…
04-29 17:07:46	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x868b1f…
04-29 16:32:04	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xae6ab6…