Ambitious-Reveal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.5%

Resolved

114

Trades

267

lifetime

Volume

$1.58K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 08-31 04:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

91% 65% -$14

Politics

7% 100% +$2

Tech

2% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	1	$32	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	06-20 18:20
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?	2	$29	15	15	+0	Yes	+$1	06-15 13:45
Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races?	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$1	06-04 05:53
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$1	06-26 16:51
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?	2	$24	12	12	+0	No	+$0	05-31 16:07
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	2	$24	12	12	+0	Yes	+$0	04-29 11:19
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$1	06-05 03:15
will spencer pratt concede by june 10 20260608151037169	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$1	06-10 13:22
will spacex have exactly 13 launches in june 2026	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-29 06:53
starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	2	$21	11	11	+0	Yes	+$1	06-22 08:20
Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-20 01:46
will big mistakes season 1 be the 2 us netflix show this week 462	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	04-21 20:15
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-21 17:03
israel closes its airspace by june 9	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-09 07:21
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?	2	$19	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-31 09:30
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	06-25 12:52
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 30?	4	$17	34	0	+34	No	+$0	05-29 10:04
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?	2	$17	9	9	+0	No	+$1	04-27 19:19
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 28?	5	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-27 13:05
highest temperature in wellington on april 24 2026 17c	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-23 12:45
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C or below on June 23?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-23 02:58
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on May 6?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-06 01:53
highest temperature in wellington on april 22 2026 12c	4	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	04-22 03:57
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 2?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-01 15:44
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on May 27?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-27 04:59
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C or higher on May 3?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-02 21:39
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 2?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-01 22:38
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20?	4	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-20 05:00
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 5?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-05 03:47
highest temperature in shanghai on april 21 2026 17c	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-21 08:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 04:18:00	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x0ca2af…
08-31 03:33:45	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x28894f…
06-29 06:53:05	will spacex have exactly 13 launches in june 2026	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xb8fa3b…
06-29 02:42:47	Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x84baef…
06-29 00:35:17	will spacex have exactly 13 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x6bec4d…
06-28 14:50:59	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0xbd0e90…
06-28 10:56:41	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 28?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xd5b934…
06-27 13:05:05	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x35be16…
06-27 13:05:04	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xa931ab…
06-27 13:04:55	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x933924…
06-27 13:04:55	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x83a797…
06-27 12:05:14	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 28?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x7ce9e2…
06-26 16:51:08	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xdb8fd1…
06-26 08:45:01	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x2547b7…
06-25 12:52:41	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x6b0271…
06-25 06:11:58	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x930c43…
06-25 06:08:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x2bca4f…
06-24 12:31:31	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 24?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xb9b95b…
06-24 08:17:59	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 24?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xbecbc0…
06-23 02:58:40	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C or below on June 23?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x3dfff9…
06-23 02:32:38	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C or below on June 23?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x6e97f8…
06-22 08:20:16	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xe39850…
06-21 13:37:59	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x73aea7…
06-21 13:21:25	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x0bc817…
06-21 12:07:59	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 22?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xf16c12…
06-21 12:01:22	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x7aa459…
06-20 18:20:22	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xf5fed8…
06-20 05:00:41	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x040585…
06-20 05:00:02	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x6fed38…
06-20 04:59:53	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xb8c4b8…
06-20 04:42:26	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xdbd7d7…
06-19 10:26:46	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x21c40a…
06-19 09:05:20	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xd3e80c…
06-19 07:27:47	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x5ca8f9…
06-16 21:09:17	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x1f05ca…
06-16 18:58:16	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x40f449…
06-15 20:01:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x91b4fd…
06-15 18:51:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x076ac9…
06-15 13:45:19	Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?	Yes	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x3b7baa…
06-14 12:03:57	Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?	Yes	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x445c04…
06-13 12:13:18	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x0a370d…
06-13 12:06:24	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 14?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x0b8385…
06-12 17:47:43	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x04f779…
06-12 17:44:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x3388fc…
06-12 13:17:25	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xd4ad5e…
06-12 07:01:10	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 12?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x2d2f53…
06-12 03:52:10	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 12?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xe98f82…
06-12 02:40:01	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 12?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x0306c6…
06-12 01:00:24	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 12?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x86fa5e…
06-11 17:54:16	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x93632c…
06-11 15:24:57	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb82063…
06-11 15:22:34	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xec4fea…
06-11 11:02:06	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x8a1d99…
06-10 13:22:16	will spencer pratt concede by june 10 20260608151037169	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x5059a5…
06-10 11:10:10	will spencer pratt concede by june 10 20260608151037169	No	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0xa86a25…
06-09 07:21:43	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xcad6e8…
06-08 19:44:16	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x529321…
06-08 06:34:58	will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 8 20260607232624532	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xd2908b…
06-07 15:37:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x027b91…
06-07 15:31:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 8?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe9cc66…
06-07 01:49:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0xe87100…
06-07 01:39:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xe0a608…
06-06 13:46:40	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x42b5ff…
06-06 12:12:03	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 7?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb3ee8d…
06-05 18:23:45	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x99b700…
06-05 18:08:25	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 6?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x280262…
06-05 07:28:54	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x4e4e14…
06-05 06:55:31	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x15ecd0…
06-05 03:41:15	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 5?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xc498f9…
06-05 03:15:48	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x774ebe…
06-04 05:53:25	Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x69afbf…
06-04 04:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0xcd1752…
06-04 04:07:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 4?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xc86910…
06-02 20:34:36	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0xcc689e…
06-02 06:44:04	Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x4263af…
06-01 15:44:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xba0e55…
06-01 14:40:38	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x1e2095…
06-01 12:19:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 2?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x8b65d5…
06-01 00:29:19	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1?	No	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x933b33…
05-31 23:06:40	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x660fc9…
05-31 16:07:13	Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x3cb9ac…
05-31 13:56:07	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 1?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x851eb5…
05-31 12:10:44	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 1?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb81bde…
05-31 09:30:47	Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x6ae2e5…
05-31 03:23:31	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x810191…
05-30 22:44:41	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on May 31?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x4200ab…
05-30 16:41:30	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x3a7969…
05-30 15:57:31	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x1052e1…
05-30 15:57:21	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xba10d1…
05-30 12:01:56	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on May 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x78b6f4…
05-30 01:25:51	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xb60e1e…
05-30 01:19:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd84ce9…
05-29 13:39:50	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 29?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x179fbc…
05-29 10:04:05	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x3aa6bd…
05-29 09:42:25	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xf8bba9…
05-29 08:23:38	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x4dafd8…
05-29 07:38:00	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 30?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x4eb7df…
05-29 00:03:50	Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x7a8b8e…
05-28 12:45:29	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 29?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2451bc…
05-28 07:20:22	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x21c89a…